Updated May 9, 2021, at 12:31 AM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 39 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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USL Championship

2021

USA, tier 2

Updated May 9, 2021, at 12:31 a.m.

Upcoming matches
May 4-10
5/9
LA Galaxy II
40%
27%
Tacoma Defiance
34%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
May 4-10
5/8
Phoenix Rising3
74%17%
Oakland Roots0
9%
PHXOAK
Adjusted goals3.20.0
Shot-based xG0.90.4
Non-shot xG1.21.0
5/8
El Paso1
43%28%
New Mexico1
28%
ELPNMU
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.81.0
Non-shot xG1.01.1
5/8
San Antonio2
66%21%
Real Monarchs2
13%
SAFCSLC
Adjusted goals2.11.7
Shot-based xG0.71.1
Non-shot xG1.60.6
5/8
The Miami FC0
54%24%
Hartford Athletic1
22%
MIAHFD
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.10.6
Non-shot xG0.90.7
5/8
Louisville City1
49%26%
Birmingham1
25%
LOUBRM
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.81.3
Non-shot xG1.50.6
5/8
Tampa Bay3
49%27%
Pittsburgh0
24%
TBRPIT
Adjusted goals2.70.0
Shot-based xG2.10.4
Non-shot xG1.60.6
5/8
Indy Eleven0
48%27%
FC Tulsa2
24%
INDYTUL
Adjusted goals0.01.8
Shot-based xG1.51.1
Non-shot xG1.00.6
5/7
Sporting KC II1
35%28%
Oklahoma City1
37%
SPROKC
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.30.3
Non-shot xG1.10.5
5/7
NY Red Bulls II1
28%26%
Charleston1
46%
NY2CHR
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG0.41.8
Non-shot xG0.31.4
5/6
RGV Toros1
32%28%
San Diego Loyal0
40%
RGVSDL
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG0.80.6
Non-shot xG1.21.7
5/5
LA Galaxy II5
40%27%
Las Vegas Lights0
33%
LA2LVL
Adjusted goals4.50.0
Shot-based xG3.00.7
Non-shot xG2.10.6
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamdivisionspioff.def.goal diff.proj. pts.pts.Every positionmake playoffsmake qtrsmake semismake finalwin final
Phoenix Rising6 pts
Pacific
38.8
1.4
1.7
+386798%72%48%31%20%
Tampa Bay6 pts
Atlantic
30.4
1.0
1.7
+326497%66%42%25%13%
San Antonio4 pts
Mountain
30.4
1.1
1.8
+225790%56%31%16%9%
Louisville City4 pts
Central
26.5
0.9
1.8
+195686%52%29%16%7%
Orange County0 pts
Pacific
27.4
1.0
1.8
+185587%48%25%13%7%
Sacramento3 pts
Pacific
25.5
0.9
1.8
+165587%48%24%12%6%
Indy Eleven3 pts
Central
22.9
0.8
1.8
+125379%43%23%11%5%
Pittsburgh0 pts
Atlantic
21.8
0.8
1.9
+105175%39%19%9%4%
FC Tulsa9 pts
Central
20.1
0.7
2.0
+125380%40%19%9%4%
El Paso1 pt
Mountain
21.0
0.7
1.8
+74869%33%15%7%3%
Birmingham1 pt
Central
22.1
0.8
2.0
+94867%33%16%8%3%
New Mexico1 pt
Mountain
21.3
0.8
1.9
+54665%30%13%6%3%
Charlotte0 pts
Atlantic
19.8
0.8
2.0
+54764%30%14%6%3%
San Diego Loyal0 pts
Pacific
20.4
0.7
1.9
+34662%26%11%5%2%
Austin Bold0 pts
Mountain
19.0
0.8
2.1
+04455%24%10%4%2%
Charleston1 pt
Atlantic
16.0
0.6
2.0
+24554%23%10%4%2%
The Miami FC3 pts
Atlantic
17.4
0.7
2.2
+04454%23%10%4%2%
Memphis 9010 pts
Central
15.5
0.7
2.2
-44142%17%7%3%1%
C.S. Switchbacks0 pts
Mountain
16.2
0.6
2.1
-64044%17%6%2%1%
RGV Toros6 pts
Mountain
13.6
0.5
2.2
-84145%15%5%2%<1%
Real Monarchs1 pt
Mountain
12.6
0.5
2.2
-103731%10%4%1%<1%
Oklahoma City1 pt
Central
12.2
0.5
2.2
-133418%7%3%1%<1%
Hartford Athletic6 pts
Atlantic
11.0
0.5
2.3
-94036%12%4%1%<1%
Tacoma Defiance0 pts
Pacific
11.5
0.5
2.4
-163422%7%2%<1%<1%
Oakland Roots0 pts
Pacific
10.6
0.4
2.2
-163420%6%2%<1%<1%
Sporting KC II1 pt
Central
9.3
0.4
2.4
-193113%4%2%<1%<1%
LA Galaxy II3 pts
Pacific
9.7
0.4
2.4
-153317%5%1%<1%<1%
Atlanta United 23 pts
Central
9.0
0.4
2.4
-193215%5%2%<1%<1%
NY Red Bulls II1 pt
Atlantic
8.1
0.4
2.6
-24288%2%<1%<1%<1%
Las Vegas Lights0 pts
Pacific
8.3
0.4
2.5
-31277%2%<1%<1%<1%
Loudoun United0 pts
Atlantic
7.8
0.3
2.4
-213011%4%1%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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