| Team rating | avg. simulated season | end-of-season probabilities | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| team | conference | spi | off. | def. | goal diff. | proj. pts.pts. | Every position | make playoffs | make qtrs | make semis | make final | win final | |||||
 San Antonio70 pts | Western | 24.4 | 0.8 | 1.7 | +27 | 75 | ✓ | ✓ | 68% | 44% | 26% | ||||||
 Louisville City63 pts | Eastern | 27.8 | 0.9 | 1.8 | +36 | 68 | ✓ | 89% | 59% | 35% | 19% | ||||||
 Memphis 90161 pts | Eastern | 23.7 | 0.9 | 1.9 | +33 | 68 | ✓ | 80% | 47% | 24% | 12% | ||||||
 Tampa Bay55 pts | Eastern | 27.7 | 1.0 | 1.8 | +33 | 64 | ✓ | 72% | 38% | 19% | 11% | ||||||
 San Diego Loyal58 pts | Western | 26.5 | 1.1 | 2.0 | +18 | 63 | ✓ | 70% | 45% | 21% | 9% | ||||||
 Birmingham55 pts | Eastern | 25.6 | 1.0 | 2.0 | +20 | 60 | ✓ | 57% | 23% | 9% | 5% | ||||||
 Sacramento49 pts | Western | 21.5 | 0.7 | 1.8 | +13 | 54 | >99% | 60% | 26% | 11% | 4% | ||||||
 Pittsburgh53 pts | Eastern | 20.9 | 0.7 | 1.8 | +11 | 57 | ✓ | 42% | 15% | 7% | 3% | ||||||
 RGV Toros42 pts | Western | 22.3 | 0.7 | 1.8 | +10 | 49 | 87% | 40% | 17% | 7% | 3% | ||||||
 New Mexico43 pts | Western | 20.0 | 0.7 | 1.9 | +7 | 49 | 91% | 39% | 14% | 6% | 2% | ||||||
 C.S. Switchbacks52 pts | Western | 17.8 | 0.7 | 2.1 | +4 | 54 | ✓ | 52% | 18% | 7% | 2% | ||||||
 The Miami FC49 pts | Eastern | 18.8 | 0.6 | 1.9 | +14 | 53 | ✓ | 32% | 10% | 3% | 1% | ||||||
 Detroit City51 pts | Eastern | 15.4 | 0.5 | 1.9 | +12 | 55 | ✓ | 29% | 8% | 3% | 1% | ||||||
 El Paso43 pts | Western | 17.6 | 0.7 | 2.1 | +8 | 47 | 71% | 25% | 8% | 3% | <1% | ||||||
 Oakland Roots40 pts | Western | 20.0 | 0.8 | 2.0 | +4 | 44 | 21% | 8% | 3% | 1% | <1% | ||||||
 Monterey Bay40 pts | Western | 12.0 | 0.5 | 2.2 | -13 | 43 | 8% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||||||
 LA Galaxy II36 pts | Western | 12.4 | 0.6 | 2.4 | -9 | 42 | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||||||
 Las Vegas Lights40 pts | Western | 8.5 | 0.3 | 2.3 | -12 | 43 | 14% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||||||
 Phoenix Rising36 pts | Western | 16.1 | 0.7 | 2.3 | -12 | 41 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||||||
 Indy Eleven38 pts | Eastern | 9.6 | 0.4 | 2.3 | -14 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||
 FC Tulsa36 pts | Eastern | 13.4 | 0.7 | 2.4 | -11 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||
 Hartford Athletic33 pts | Eastern | 12.1 | 0.6 | 2.4 | -11 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||
 Orange County32 pts | Western | 13.8 | 0.5 | 2.1 | -11 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||
 Loudoun United27 pts | Eastern | 7.1 | 0.4 | 2.6 | -29 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||
 Charleston24 pts | Eastern | 10.8 | 0.5 | 2.4 | -30 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||
 Atlanta United 220 pts | Eastern | 5.7 | 0.4 | 3.0 | -48 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||
 NY Red Bulls II15 pts | Eastern | 4.1 | 0.2 | 2.8 | -51 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||
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