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| Team rating | avg. simulated season | end-of-season probabilities | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| team | division | spi | off. | def. | goal diff. | proj. pts.pts. | Every position | make playoffs | make qtrs | make semis | make final | win final | |||||
 Phoenix Rising29 pts | Pacific | 38.3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | +43 | 69 | >99% | 77% | 55% | 38% | 25% | ||||||
 Louisville City30 pts | Central | 30.1 | 1.0 | 1.7 | +25 | 61 | >99% | 71% | 44% | 26% | 14% | ||||||
 Tampa Bay27 pts | Atlantic | 26.5 | 0.9 | 1.7 | +22 | 60 | 97% | 64% | 38% | 21% | 10% | ||||||
 El Paso28 pts | Mountain | 21.9 | 0.7 | 1.7 | +15 | 58 | 95% | 58% | 31% | 14% | 7% | ||||||
 Pittsburgh27 pts | Atlantic | 22.8 | 0.7 | 1.7 | +13 | 56 | 92% | 53% | 27% | 14% | 7% | ||||||
 Birmingham25 pts | Central | 21.8 | 0.7 | 1.8 | +12 | 57 | 97% | 57% | 28% | 14% | 6% | ||||||
 San Antonio18 pts | Mountain | 25.5 | 1.0 | 1.9 | +9 | 47 | 62% | 31% | 16% | 8% | 4% | ||||||
 Orange County22 pts | Pacific | 21.5 | 0.8 | 1.9 | +7 | 48 | 84% | 41% | 18% | 8% | 3% | ||||||
 Sacramento13 pts | Pacific | 20.3 | 0.7 | 1.9 | +1 | 43 | 59% | 27% | 12% | 5% | 2% | ||||||
 RGV Toros25 pts | Mountain | 16.8 | 0.6 | 1.9 | +5 | 49 | 73% | 32% | 13% | 5% | 2% | ||||||
 San Diego Loyal21 pts | Pacific | 18.8 | 0.7 | 2.0 | +2 | 48 | 82% | 37% | 15% | 6% | 2% | ||||||
 New Mexico21 pts | Mountain | 19.1 | 0.6 | 1.9 | +3 | 45 | 57% | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | ||||||
 C.S. Switchbacks18 pts | Mountain | 20.5 | 0.9 | 2.2 | +3 | 45 | 55% | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | ||||||
 The Miami FC23 pts | Atlantic | 19.3 | 0.8 | 2.1 | +4 | 48 | 66% | 28% | 12% | 5% | 2% | ||||||
 Indy Eleven16 pts | Central | 19.4 | 0.7 | 1.9 | +2 | 44 | 63% | 26% | 11% | 5% | 2% | ||||||
 Austin Bold20 pts | Mountain | 17.5 | 0.6 | 1.9 | +2 | 46 | 55% | 24% | 10% | 4% | 2% | ||||||
 Charlotte16 pts | Atlantic | 18.4 | 0.7 | 2.0 | +3 | 45 | 49% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 2% | ||||||
 Memphis 90116 pts | Central | 14.7 | 0.6 | 2.1 | -4 | 42 | 51% | 18% | 7% | 3% | <1% | ||||||
 Charleston21 pts | Atlantic | 14.2 | 0.6 | 2.1 | +0 | 45 | 46% | 17% | 7% | 3% | <1% | ||||||
 FC Tulsa19 pts | Central | 15.2 | 0.6 | 2.2 | -7 | 42 | 52% | 18% | 7% | 2% | <1% | ||||||
 Hartford Athletic23 pts | Atlantic | 11.7 | 0.5 | 2.3 | +3 | 45 | 47% | 15% | 5% | 2% | <1% | ||||||
 Tacoma Defiance16 pts | Pacific | 12.1 | 0.5 | 2.2 | -9 | 39 | 36% | 12% | 4% | 1% | <1% | ||||||
 Oklahoma City18 pts | Central | 12.1 | 0.4 | 2.0 | -9 | 37 | 21% | 7% | 3% | <1% | <1% | ||||||
 Las Vegas Lights16 pts | Pacific | 13.0 | 0.6 | 2.3 | -18 | 35 | 19% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ||||||
 LA Galaxy II16 pts | Pacific | 11.0 | 0.5 | 2.4 | -13 | 33 | 11% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||||||
 Oakland Roots6 pts | Pacific | 8.8 | 0.3 | 2.2 | -19 | 30 | 10% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||||||
 Atlanta United 217 pts | Central | 10.4 | 0.4 | 2.3 | -10 | 34 | 11% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | ||||||
 Sporting KC II14 pts | Central | 10.0 | 0.4 | 2.3 | -17 | 31 | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||||||
 Real Monarchs13 pts | Mountain | 10.4 | 0.4 | 2.3 | -18 | 30 | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||||||
 NY Red Bulls II13 pts | Atlantic | 10.1 | 0.6 | 2.6 | -23 | 31 | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||||||
 Loudoun United6 pts | Atlantic | 9.8 | 0.5 | 2.5 | -28 | 24 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||||||
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