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| Team rating | avg. simulated season | end-of-season probabilities | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| team | division | spi | off. | def. | goal diff. | proj. pts.pts. | Every position | make playoffs | make qtrs | make semis | make final | win final | |||||
 Tampa Bay68 pts | Atlantic | 25.2 | 0.8 | 1.7 | +32 | 70 | ✓ | 77% | 49% | 33% | 21% | ||||||
 Phoenix Rising66 pts | Pacific | 29.9 | 1.2 | 2.0 | +34 | 68 | ✓ | 71% | 47% | 31% | 17% | ||||||
 El Paso64 pts | Mountain | 22.2 | 0.8 | 1.9 | +25 | 65 | ✓ | 72% | 45% | 23% | 12% | ||||||
 Louisville City58 pts | Central | 25.9 | 0.9 | 1.8 | +23 | 59 | ✓ | 65% | 35% | 19% | 10% | ||||||
 Birmingham60 pts | Central | 21.3 | 0.8 | 2.0 | +21 | 61 | ✓ | 61% | 33% | 15% | 7% | ||||||
 Charlotte55 pts | Atlantic | 21.3 | 0.8 | 2.0 | +22 | 59 | ✓ | 63% | 30% | 13% | 6% | ||||||
 San Antonio49 pts | Mountain | 24.5 | 0.9 | 2.0 | +10 | 51 | ✓ | 57% | 27% | 14% | 6% | ||||||
 Pittsburgh55 pts | Atlantic | 23.1 | 0.8 | 1.8 | +18 | 57 | ✓ | 45% | 21% | 10% | 5% | ||||||
 C.S. Switchbacks49 pts | Mountain | 21.4 | 0.9 | 2.1 | +12 | 50 | ✓ | 53% | 23% | 10% | 4% | ||||||
 Orange County49 pts | Pacific | 18.6 | 0.7 | 2.0 | +6 | 50 | ✓ | 51% | 23% | 10% | 3% | ||||||
 The Miami FC52 pts | Atlantic | 18.6 | 0.8 | 2.1 | +12 | 53 | ✓ | 33% | 15% | 5% | 2% | ||||||
 San Diego Loyal47 pts | Pacific | 18.7 | 0.8 | 2.1 | +8 | 48 | ✓ | 39% | 15% | 6% | 2% | ||||||
 FC Tulsa44 pts | Central | 15.1 | 0.6 | 2.1 | +0 | 47 | ✓ | 29% | 9% | 3% | 1% | ||||||
 RGV Toros41 pts | Mountain | 18.1 | 0.6 | 1.9 | +3 | 44 | 38% | 12% | 5% | 2% | <1% | ||||||
 Memphis 90144 pts | Central | 15.1 | 0.7 | 2.2 | +2 | 47 | ✓ | 27% | 8% | 3% | <1% | ||||||
 New Mexico43 pts | Mountain | 16.3 | 0.6 | 2.1 | +3 | 45 | 61% | 16% | 6% | 2% | <1% | ||||||
 LA Galaxy II39 pts | Pacific | 15.6 | 0.8 | 2.4 | -1 | 41 | 64% | 18% | 6% | 2% | <1% | ||||||
 Oakland Roots38 pts | Pacific | 11.1 | 0.4 | 2.2 | -7 | 40 | 27% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ||||||
 Tacoma Defiance38 pts | Pacific | 10.1 | 0.4 | 2.2 | -5 | 39 | 9% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||||||
 Austin Bold41 pts | Mountain | 12.6 | 0.5 | 2.1 | -10 | 42 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ||||||
 Charleston37 pts | Atlantic | 12.2 | 0.6 | 2.4 | -5 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||
 Hartford Athletic37 pts | Atlantic | 12.6 | 0.6 | 2.3 | -3 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||
 Oklahoma City37 pts | Central | 8.3 | 0.2 | 2.1 | -7 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||
 Sacramento35 pts | Pacific | 16.4 | 0.6 | 1.9 | -6 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||
 Indy Eleven35 pts | Central | 10.6 | 0.4 | 2.1 | -12 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||
 Atlanta United 234 pts | Central | 11.2 | 0.6 | 2.5 | -9 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||
 NY Red Bulls II25 pts | Atlantic | 9.1 | 0.5 | 2.7 | -28 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||
 Real Monarchs22 pts | Mountain | 6.4 | 0.2 | 2.4 | -26 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||
 Las Vegas Lights21 pts | Pacific | 9.0 | 0.5 | 2.7 | -36 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||
 Sporting KC II20 pts | Central | 7.8 | 0.3 | 2.4 | -31 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||
 Loudoun United15 pts | Atlantic | 6.9 | 0.4 | 2.9 | -45 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||
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