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UPDATED Jun. 13, 2019, at 11:52 PM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The Golden State Warriors have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strengthvs. full strengthOff. +/-Def. +/-
Stephen CurryS. Curry39000039SAME
+6.5
+0.1
Kevin DurantK. Durant000000-37
+4.1
+0.5
Klay ThompsonK. Thompson03180039+2
+1.4
-1.5
Draymond GreenD. Green00037037+2
-0.1
+3.7
Andre IguodalaA. Iguodala00270027+2
+0.1
+1.8
DeMarcus CousinsD. Cousins00002929+5
+1.2
+2.8
Kevon LooneyK. Looney00031114-6
+0.7
+2.0
Shaun LivingstonS. Livingston51100016+1
-2.2
0.0
Alfonzo McKinnieA. McKinnie00130013+5
-1.5
-1.3
Quinn CookQ. Cook4600010+10
-0.3
-3.0
Jordan BellJ. Bell0002810+10
-1.7
+1.2
Jonas JerebkoJ. Jerebko000606+6
-0.3
-0.4
Andrew BogutA. Bogut000000SAME
-3.2
+3.2
Jacob EvansJ. Evans000000SAME
-2.2
-0.7
Damian JonesD. Jones000000SAME
-1.3
+1.2
Damion LeeD. Lee000000SAME
-1.3
-1.0
Marcus DerricksonM. Derrickson000000SAME
-1.6
-1.4
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+5.7
+4.2
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
64
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1754
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALOff. +/-Def. +/-
Stephen CurryS. Curry39000039
+6.5
+0.1
Kevin DurantK. Durant001720037
+4.1
+0.5
Klay ThompsonK. Thompson03700037
+1.4
-1.5
Draymond GreenD. Green00326635
-0.1
+3.7
Andre IguodalaA. Iguodala01240025
+0.1
+1.8
DeMarcus CousinsD. Cousins00002424
+1.2
+2.8
Kevon LooneyK. Looney00021820
+0.7
+2.0
Shaun LivingstonS. Livingston9600015
-2.2
0.0
Alfonzo McKinnieA. McKinnie044008
-1.5
-1.3
Quinn CookQ. Cook000000
-0.3
-3.0
Jordan BellJ. Bell000000
-1.7
+1.2
Jonas JerebkoJ. Jerebko000000
-0.3
-0.4
Andrew BogutA. Bogut000000
-3.2
+3.2
Jacob EvansJ. Evans000000
-2.2
-0.7
Damian JonesD. Jones000000
-1.3
+1.2
Damion LeeD. Lee000000
-1.3
-1.0
Marcus DerricksonM. Derrickson000000
-1.6
-1.4
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+9.4
+4.9
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
71
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1862
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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