2020 MLB Predictions

The Brewers are done for the season.

NL Central standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Cubs Cubs34-26	—	✓	✓
Reds Reds31-29	3.0	✓	—
Cardinals Cardinals30-28	3.0	✓	—
Brewers Brewers29-31	5.0	✓	—
Pirates Pirates19-41	15.0	—	—

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
10/1Thursday, Oct. 110 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1508	+33	+0	=1541	33%	0
10/1Thursday, Oct. 110 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Kershaw	1605	+22	+10	=1637	67%	3
9/30Wednesday, Sept. 3010 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Suter	1509	+1	+1	=1511	28%	2
9/30Wednesday, Sept. 3010 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Buehler	1604	+19	+15	=1638	72%	4
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:15 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Anderson	1511	–2	+0	=1509	49%	2
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Gomber	1510	–7	+10	=1513	51%	5
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:07 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1509	+27	–2	=1534	51%	3
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:07 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1512	+9	+8	=1529	49%	0
9/25Friday, Sept. 258:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Ponce de Leon	1509	–14	–2	=1493	47%	9
9/25Friday, Sept. 258:15 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lindblom	1512	–5	+8	=1515	53%	1
9/25Friday, Sept. 255:15 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Suter	1510	–1	+0	=1509	44%	3
9/25Friday, Sept. 255:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Flaherty	1511	+32	+10	=1553	56%	0
9/24Thursday, Sept. 248:15 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1512	+20	–2	=1530	51%	2
9/24Thursday, Sept. 248:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Kim	1509	+3	+8	=1520	49%	4
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 236:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1514	–12	+0	=1502	44%	1
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 236:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Bauer	1515	+17	+10	=1542	56%	6
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 226:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Anderson	1513	–4	+0	=1509	46%	3
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 226:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Gray	1516	+12	+10	=1538	54%	2
9/21Monday, Sept. 216:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1514	+26	–2	=1538	50%	3
9/21Monday, Sept. 216:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Castillo	1514	+13	+10	=1537	50%	6
9/20Sunday, Sept. 202:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Keller	1451	+28	+0	=1479	45%	3
9/20Sunday, Sept. 202:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lindblom	1513	–9	+10	=1514	55%	5
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Bubic	1452	–2	+0	=1450	38%	0
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1511	+14	+10	=1535	62%	5
9/18Friday, Sept. 188:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Duffy	1454	+13	+0	=1467	43%	5
9/18Friday, Sept. 188:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1510	–7	+12	=1515	57%	9
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 168:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Oviedo	1513	–20	+0	=1493	47%	0
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 168:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Suter	1508	–1	+10	=1517	53%	6
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 165:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1512	+5	+0	=1517	46%	4
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 165:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1509	+28	+10	=1547	54%	2
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 157:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Flaherty	1517	+37	+0	=1554	56%	3
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 157:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Anderson	1504	–4	+10	=1510	44%	18
9/14Monday, Sept. 148:30 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Ponce de Leon	1516	–24	+0	=1492	45%	3
9/14Monday, Sept. 148:30 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1505	+12	+10	=1527	55%	2
9/14Monday, Sept. 145:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Kim	1517	–1	–2	=1514	52%	1
9/14Monday, Sept. 145:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lindblom	1504	–16	+10	=1498	48%	2
9/13Sunday, Sept. 132:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Mills	1525	–11	+0	=1514	50%	12
9/13Sunday, Sept. 132:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1508	–2	+10	=1516	50%	0
9/12Saturday, Sept. 127:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Hendricks	1524	+18	+0	=1542	54%	4
9/12Saturday, Sept. 127:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Suter	1509	–3	+10	=1516	46%	2
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Lester	1525	–25	–1	=1499	44%	0
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1508	+24	+10	=1542	56%	1
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 91:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1504	+3	+0	=1507	57%	19
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 91:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Boyd	1447	+2	+10	=1459	43%	0
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 87:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1506	+3	+1	=1510	57%	3
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 87:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Turnbull	1445	+12	+7	=1464	43%	8
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Anderson	1508	+2	+0	=1510	41%	1
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Bieber	1540	+25	+10	=1575	59%	4
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1509	+27	+0	=1536	50%	3
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Civale	1539	–12	+10	=1537	50%	4
9/4Friday, Sept. 47:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1506	–5	+0	=1501	45%	7
9/4Friday, Sept. 47:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Carrasco	1542	–13	+9	=1538	55%	1
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 27:40 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Turnbull	1448	+17	+0	=1465	42%	5
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 27:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1505	+7	+10	=1522	58%	8
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:40 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Fulmer	1443	–1	+0	=1442	40%	12
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lindblom	1509	–9	+10	=1510	60%	1
8/31Monday, Aug. 317:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Williams	1458	–3	+0	=1455	41%	5
8/31Monday, Aug. 317:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Suter	1508	+0	+10	=1518	59%	6
8/30Sunday, Aug. 302:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brault	1455	+3	+0	=1458	37%	5
8/30Sunday, Aug. 302:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1511	+30	+10	=1551	63%	1
8/29Saturday, Aug. 297:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1456	–2	+0	=1454	40%	6
8/29Saturday, Aug. 297:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Anderson	1510	+3	+10	=1523	60%	7
8/28Friday, Aug. 288:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Holland	1459	–16	–2	=1441	42%	1
8/28Friday, Aug. 288:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1508	–18	+10	=1500	58%	9
8/27Thursday, Aug. 278:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Miley	1511	–34	+0	=1477	46%	6
8/27Thursday, Aug. 278:35 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lindblom	1511	–12	+10	=1509	54%	0
8/27Thursday, Aug. 275:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Gray	1509	+29	+2	=1540	51%	6
8/27Thursday, Aug. 275:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1513	+11	+12	=1536	49%	1
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 258:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Castillo	1510	+4	+0	=1514	45%	2
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 258:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1512	+28	+10	=1550	55%	3
8/24Monday, Aug. 248:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Bauer	1511	+13	–2	=1522	50%	2
8/24Monday, Aug. 248:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Anderson	1510	+5	+8	=1523	50%	4
8/23Sunday, Aug. 231:35 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1512	–21	+0	=1491	54%	4
8/23Sunday, Aug. 231:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1458	–7	+10	=1461	46%	5
8/22Saturday, Aug. 224:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lindblom	1515	–9	+0	=1506	59%	5
8/22Saturday, Aug. 224:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Holland	1455	–19	+10	=1446	41%	12
8/21Friday, Aug. 217:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1518	+14	–3	=1529	59%	2
8/21Friday, Aug. 217:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Kuhl	1452	+4	+10	=1466	41%	7
8/20Thursday, Aug. 207:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1520	+28	+0	=1548	50%	1
8/20Thursday, Aug. 207:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1550	–8	+10	=1552	50%	7
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 198:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Anderson	1517	+0	+0	=1517	43%	9
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 198:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Hill	1553	+3	+10	=1566	57%	3
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 188:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1518	–29	+0	=1489	39%	3
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 188:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1552	+7	+10	=1569	61%	4
8/16Sunday, Aug. 162:20 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lindblom	1517	–9	+0	=1508	47%	6
8/16Sunday, Aug. 162:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Lester	1531	–12	+10	=1529	53%	5
8/15Saturday, Aug. 153:20 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1516	+17	+0	=1533	52%	6
8/15Saturday, Aug. 153:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Rea	1532	–26	+10	=1516	48%	5
8/14Friday, Aug. 148:15 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1515	+31	+0	=1546	50%	4
8/14Friday, Aug. 148:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Mills	1533	+1	+10	=1544	50%	3
8/13Thursday, Aug. 137:15 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Anderson	1516	+1	–1	=1516	43%	2
8/13Thursday, Aug. 137:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Darvish	1532	+26	+8	=1566	57%	4
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1548	+5	+0	=1553	55%	12
8/12Wednesday, Aug. 127:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lauer	1519	–13	+10	=1516	45%	2
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 118:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Clippard	1550	–23	+0	=1527	51%	4
8/11Tuesday, Aug. 118:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lindblom	1518	–5	+10	=1523	49%	6
8/10Monday, Aug. 108:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Dobnak	1548	–1	–2	=1545	50%	4
8/10Monday, Aug. 108:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1519	+16	+10	=1545	50%	2
8/9Sunday, Aug. 92:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Gray	1518	+26	+0	=1544	48%	3
8/9Sunday, Aug. 92:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1517	+31	+10	=1558	52%	9
8/8Saturday, Aug. 87:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	DeSclafani	1516	–4	+0	=1512	48%	4
8/8Saturday, Aug. 87:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Anderson	1518	+1	+10	=1529	52%	1
8/7Friday, Aug. 78:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Bauer	1514	+1	–2	=1513	49%	8
8/7Friday, Aug. 78:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lauer	1521	–10	+9	=1520	51%	3
8/6Thursday, Aug. 68:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lindblom	1518	–10	+0	=1508	50%	8
8/6Thursday, Aug. 68:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Gonzalez	1500	+1	+10	=1511	50%	3
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 58:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1517	+12	–1	=1528	53%	1
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 58:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Keuchel	1501	–2	+9	=1508	47%	0
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 48:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Giolito	1500	+29	+0	=1529	46%	3
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 48:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1519	+32	+10	=1561	54%	2
8/3Monday, Aug. 38:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Rodon	1499	–2	–2	=1495	44%	6
8/3Monday, Aug. 38:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Anderson	1520	+2	+15	=1537	56%	4
7/29Wednesday, July 297:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1519	+27	+0	=1546	58%	3
7/29Wednesday, July 297:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Musgrove	1468	+15	+10	=1493	42%	0
7/28Tuesday, July 287:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lindblom	1521	–9	+0	=1512	57%	6
7/28Tuesday, July 287:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Holland	1466	–12	+10	=1464	43%	8
7/27Monday, July 277:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1520	+12	–2	=1530	59%	6
7/27Monday, July 277:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brault	1467	–5	+7	=1469	41%	5
7/26Sunday, July 262:20 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1523	–7	+0	=1516	51%	1
7/26Sunday, July 262:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Chatwood	1522	–24	+10	=1508	49%	9
7/25Saturday, July 251:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1520	–36	+0	=1484	39%	8
7/25Saturday, July 251:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Darvish	1525	+26	+10	=1561	61%	3
7/24Friday, July 247 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1522	+27	–1	=1548	49%	0
7/24Friday, July 247 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Hendricks	1524	+18	+10	=1552	51%	3

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

NL Central standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Comments

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

NL Central standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Related Stories

Comments