2020 MLB Predictions

The Pirates are done for the season.

NL Central standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Cubs Cubs34-26	—	✓	✓
Reds Reds31-29	3.0	✓	—
Cardinals Cardinals30-28	3.0	✓	—
Brewers Brewers29-31	5.0	✓	—
Pirates Pirates19-41	15.0	—	—

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1450	+4	+0	=1454	44%	6
9/27Sunday, Sept. 273:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Quantrill	1533	–49	+10	=1494	56%	8
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Musgrove	1446	+17	+0	=1463	41%	8
9/26Saturday, Sept. 267:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Civale	1536	–18	+10	=1528	59%	0
9/25Friday, Sept. 257:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1447	–5	–2	=1440	36%	3
9/25Friday, Sept. 257:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Carrasco	1536	–6	+10	=1540	64%	4
9/24Thursday, Sept. 241:35 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Mills	1526	–3	+0	=1523	61%	0
9/24Thursday, Sept. 241:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Kuhl	1443	–8	+10	=1445	39%	7
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 237:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Hendricks	1528	+24	+0	=1552	67%	1
9/23Wednesday, Sept. 237:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Williams	1442	–20	+10	=1432	33%	2
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 227:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Quintana	1529	–19	+0	=1510	57%	2
9/22Tuesday, Sept. 227:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brault	1440	+8	+10	=1458	43%	3
9/21Monday, Sept. 217:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Lester	1527	–23	–2	=1502	57%	5
9/21Monday, Sept. 217:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1442	+1	+10	=1453	43%	0
9/20Sunday, Sept. 204:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Flaherty	1512	+29	+0	=1541	60%	2
9/20Sunday, Sept. 204:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Musgrove	1443	+16	+10	=1469	40%	1
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Kim	1511	+8	–3	=1516	61%	5
9/19Saturday, Sept. 197:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1444	–8	+7	=1443	39%	4
9/18Friday, Sept. 188 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Kuhl	1445	–3	–3	=1439	42%	2
9/18Friday, Sept. 188 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Ponce de Leon	1510	–17	+7	=1500	58%	7
9/18Friday, Sept. 184:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Martinez	1509	–9	+0	=1500	58%	6
9/18Friday, Sept. 184:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Williams	1446	–12	+10	=1444	42%	5
9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Hudson	1511	+0	–2	=1509	57%	1
9/17Thursday, Sept. 177:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brault	1444	+5	+8	=1457	43%	5
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 166:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1445	+0	+0	=1445	38%	0
9/16Wednesday, Sept. 166:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Castillo	1511	+10	+10	=1531	62%	1
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 156:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Musgrove	1446	+20	+0	=1466	46%	1
9/15Tuesday, Sept. 156:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Lorenzen	1510	–27	+10	=1493	54%	4
9/14Monday, Sept. 147:20 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1448	–4	+0	=1444	42%	4
9/14Monday, Sept. 147:20 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	DeSclafani	1508	–19	+10	=1499	58%	9
9/14Monday, Sept. 144:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Ponce	1449	+10	–3	=1456	39%	1
9/14Monday, Sept. 144:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Bauer	1507	+18	+8	=1533	61%	3
9/13Sunday, Sept. 132:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Kuhl	1452	+6	+0	=1458	46%	0
9/13Sunday, Sept. 132:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Keller	1451	+23	+10	=1484	54%	11
9/12Saturday, Sept. 127:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Williams	1454	–6	+0	=1448	49%	4
9/12Saturday, Sept. 127:35 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Hernandez	1450	–7	+10	=1453	51%	7
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brault	1455	+4	–1	=1458	51%	3
9/11Friday, Sept. 118:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Bubic	1449	–5	+7	=1451	49%	4
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 97:05 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Dunning	1514	–12	+0	=1502	55%	8
9/9Wednesday, Sept. 97:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1457	+3	+10	=1470	45%	1
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 87:05 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Cease	1515	–20	–1	=1494	52%	4
9/8Tuesday, Sept. 87:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Musgrove	1456	+14	+12	=1482	48%	5
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Antone	1508	–23	+0	=1485	52%	2
9/6Sunday, Sept. 61:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Kuhl	1455	+5	+10	=1470	48%	3
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	DeSclafani	1506	–15	–2	=1489	54%	6
9/5Saturday, Sept. 57:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Williams	1457	–6	+8	=1459	46%	2
9/4Friday, Sept. 47:25 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Ponce	1455	+7	–2	=1460	41%	4
9/4Friday, Sept. 47:25 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Bauer	1507	+12	+8	=1527	59%	3
9/4Friday, Sept. 44:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Castillo	1506	+4	+0	=1510	56%	4
9/4Friday, Sept. 44:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brault	1457	+4	+10	=1471	44%	2
9/3Thursday, Sept. 31:35 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Mills	1528	–11	+0	=1517	57%	2
9/3Thursday, Sept. 31:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1454	+1	+10	=1465	43%	6
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 27:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Hendricks	1526	+15	+0	=1541	59%	8
9/2Wednesday, Sept. 27:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Musgrove	1456	+13	+10	=1479	41%	2
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Lester	1525	–19	+0	=1506	55%	8
9/1Tuesday, Sept. 17:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Kuhl	1457	+7	+8	=1472	45%	7
8/31Monday, Aug. 317:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Williams	1458	–3	+0	=1455	41%	5
8/31Monday, Aug. 317:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Suter	1508	+0	+10	=1518	59%	6
8/30Sunday, Aug. 302:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brault	1455	+3	+0	=1458	37%	5
8/30Sunday, Aug. 302:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1511	+30	+10	=1551	63%	1
8/29Saturday, Aug. 297:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1456	–2	+0	=1454	40%	6
8/29Saturday, Aug. 297:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Anderson	1510	+3	+10	=1523	60%	7
8/28Friday, Aug. 288:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Holland	1459	–16	–2	=1441	42%	1
8/28Friday, Aug. 288:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1508	–18	+10	=1500	58%	9
8/27Thursday, Aug. 276:50 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Ponce	1457	+1	+0	=1458	43%	2
8/27Thursday, Aug. 276:50 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Oviedo	1516	–18	+10	=1508	57%	0
8/27Thursday, Aug. 273:15 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Kuhl	1456	+6	–2	=1460	42%	4
8/27Thursday, Aug. 273:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Kim	1518	–14	+10	=1514	58%	3
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 262:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Williams	1458	+2	+0	=1460	41%	3
8/26Wednesday, Aug. 262:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Keuchel	1508	+3	+10	=1521	59%	10
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 258:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brault	1459	+5	+0	=1464	38%	0
8/25Tuesday, Aug. 258:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Giolito	1507	+31	+11	=1549	62%	4
8/23Sunday, Aug. 231:35 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1512	–21	+0	=1491	54%	4
8/23Sunday, Aug. 231:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1458	–7	+10	=1461	46%	5
8/22Saturday, Aug. 224:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lindblom	1515	–9	+0	=1506	59%	5
8/22Saturday, Aug. 224:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Holland	1455	–19	+10	=1446	41%	12
8/21Friday, Aug. 217:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1518	+14	–3	=1529	59%	2
8/21Friday, Aug. 217:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Kuhl	1452	+4	+10	=1466	41%	7
8/20Thursday, Aug. 207:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Bieber	1537	+19	+0	=1556	63%	2
8/20Thursday, Aug. 207:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Williams	1453	+1	+10	=1464	37%	0
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 197:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Civale	1535	–14	+0	=1521	58%	6
8/19Wednesday, Aug. 197:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brault	1455	+2	+10	=1467	42%	1
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEIndians	Carrasco	1534	–9	+0	=1525	58%	6
8/18Tuesday, Aug. 187:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1456	–3	+15	=1468	42%	3
8/14Friday, Aug. 147:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Kuhl	1458	+4	+0	=1462	38%	1
8/14Friday, Aug. 147:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Gray	1513	+26	+10	=1549	62%	8
8/13Thursday, Aug. 135:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Williams	1456	+2	+5	=1463	41%	9
8/13Thursday, Aug. 135:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	DeSclafani	1515	+1	+10	=1526	59%	6
8/9Sunday, Aug. 91:35 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Turnbull	1441	+13	+0	=1454	48%	2
8/9Sunday, Aug. 91:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brault	1457	+1	+10	=1468	52%	1
8/8Saturday, Aug. 84:05 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Nova	1439	–1	+0	=1438	47%	11
8/8Saturday, Aug. 84:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Holland	1460	–9	+10	=1461	53%	5
8/7Friday, Aug. 77:05 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Boyd	1436	+1	+5	=1442	46%	17
8/7Friday, Aug. 77:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Kuhl	1462	+0	+10	=1472	54%	13
8/6Thursday, Aug. 61:35 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Maeda	1555	+3	+0	=1558	63%	5
8/6Thursday, Aug. 61:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brubaker	1460	–2	+10	=1468	37%	6
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 57:05 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Dobnak	1554	–8	–3	=1543	61%	5
8/5Wednesday, Aug. 57:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Williams	1462	–5	+7	=1464	39%	2
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 42 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Musgrove	1463	+13	+0	=1476	38%	3
8/4Tuesday, Aug. 42 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Berrios	1553	–4	+10	=1559	62%	7
8/3Monday, Aug. 38:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Holland	1464	–10	–2	=1452	39%	4
8/3Monday, Aug. 38:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Thorpe	1552	–35	+10	=1527	61%	5
8/2Sunday, Aug. 22:20 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brault	1464	–4	+0	=1460	41%	1
8/2Sunday, Aug. 22:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Lester	1528	–17	+10	=1521	59%	2
8/1Saturday, Aug. 18:15 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1465	–6	+0	=1459	42%	3
8/1Saturday, Aug. 18:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Chatwood	1527	–20	+10	=1517	58%	4
7/31Friday, July 318:15 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Williams	1466	–5	+0	=1461	36%	3
7/31Friday, July 318:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Darvish	1526	+23	+10	=1559	64%	6
7/29Wednesday, July 297:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Woodruff	1519	+27	+0	=1546	58%	3
7/29Wednesday, July 297:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Musgrove	1468	+15	+10	=1493	42%	0
7/28Tuesday, July 287:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lindblom	1521	–9	+0	=1512	57%	6
7/28Tuesday, July 287:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Holland	1466	–12	+10	=1464	43%	8
7/27Monday, July 277:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1520	+12	–2	=1530	59%	6
7/27Monday, July 277:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Brault	1467	–5	+7	=1469	41%	5
7/26Sunday, July 262:15 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1465	–10	+0	=1455	41%	5
7/26Sunday, July 262:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Hudson	1517	–12	+10	=1515	59%	1
7/25Saturday, July 252:15 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Williams	1467	–3	+0	=1464	42%	1
7/25Saturday, July 252:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1515	–4	+10	=1521	58%	9
7/24Friday, July 248:15 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Musgrove	1468	+17	–3	=1482	37%	4
7/24Friday, July 248:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Flaherty	1514	+48	+10	=1572	63%	5

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

NL Central standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Comments

2020 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

NL Central standings

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Team rating

Completed games

Related Stories

Comments