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2016 National Primary Polls

National polling averages for the Democratic and Republican primaries.

UPDATED 1:57 PM EDT | Jul 1, 2016

We’re collecting national polls for the Democratic primary and generating an average that is adjusted for pollster quality, sample size and recency.

If you’re trying to figure out who will win the nomination, national primary polls can lead you astray. You’re better off looking at the next few states to vote, such as those covered by our primary forecasts. But national polls play a big role in media coverage, and taking a weighted average of them is more informative than looking at just one or two.

For the Democratic primary, we’ve collected 775 polls. Here they are, ranked by how heavily they factor in to our latest polling average.

= new A = all adultsRV = registered votersLV = likely voters

pollstersampleweightleader
Clinton
Sanders
O'Malley
Jun. 10-13 Selzer & Co.486 LV
1.05
Clinton +2
45%
43%
Jun. 26-28 Fox News432 RV
0.91
Clinton +21
58%
37%
Jun. 18-20 YouGov390 LV
0.79
Clinton +13
55%
42%
Jun. 15-20 Morning Consult1,733 RV
0.79
Clinton +18
53%
35%
Jun. 27-Jul. 1 Ipsos, online142 LV
0.67
Clinton +41
70%
29%
Jun. 16-19 Opinion Research Corporation435 RV
0.66
Clinton +12
55%
43%
Jun. 6-12 SurveyMonkey3,092 RV
0.58
Clinton +22
58%
36%
May 24-30 Quinnipiac University678 RV
0.29
Clinton +14
53%
39%
May 31-Jun. 5 IBD/TIPP394 RV
0.26
Clinton +14
51%
37%
Jun. 2-5 YouGov698 LV
0.19
Clinton +11
52%
41%
Jun. 10-13
486 LV
Clinton +2
Clinton 45%
Sanders 43%
Jun. 26-28
432 RV
Clinton +21
Clinton 58%
Sanders 37%
Jun. 18-20
390 LV
Clinton +13
Clinton 55%
Sanders 42%
Jun. 15-20
1,733 RV
Clinton +18
Clinton 53%
Sanders 35%
Jun. 27-Jul. 1
142 LV
Clinton +41
Clinton 70%
Sanders 29%
Jun. 16-19
435 RV
Clinton +12
Clinton 55%
Sanders 43%
Jun. 6-12
3,092 RV
Clinton +22
Clinton 58%
Sanders 36%
May 24-30
678 RV
Clinton +14
Clinton 53%
Sanders 39%
May 31-Jun. 5
394 RV
Clinton +14
Clinton 51%
Sanders 37%
Jun. 2-5
698 LV
Clinton +11
Clinton 52%
Sanders 41%
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*Leader or runner-up is not in the race.
Design and development by Jay Boice, Aaron Bycoffe, Ritchie King and Andrei Scheinkman. Research by Harry Enten and Dhrumil Mehta. Statistical model by Nate Silver. Notice any bugs or missing polls? .

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