Cubs | 2016 MLB Predictions | FiveThirtyEight

Elo history ESPN coverage

The Cubs have a 100% chance
of winning the World Series. chance of winning the World Series.

See our 2018 MLB predictions »

Starting Pitcher Adjustments

Jon Lester

61.4

+21.2

Kyle Hendricks

60.2

+15.9

Jake Arrieta

58.0

+5.3

John Lackey

55.3

-7.2

Completed games

W 8-7 Nov 2

46%

@

54%

Hendricks

Kluber

W 9-3 Nov 1

52%

@

48%

Arrieta

Tomlin

W 3-2 Oct 30

65%

vs.

35%

Lester

Bauer

L 2-7 Oct 29

51%

vs.

49%

Lackey

Kluber

L 0-1 Oct 28

66%

vs.

34%

Hendricks

Tomlin

W 5-1 Oct 26

54%

@

46%

Arrieta

Bauer

L 0-6 Oct 25

48%

@

52%

Lester

Kluber

W 5-0 Oct 22

54%

vs.

46%

Hendricks

Kershaw

W 8-4 Oct 20

59%

@

41%

Lester

Maeda

W 10-2 Oct 19

51%

@

49%

Lackey

Urias

L 0-6 Oct 18

50%

@

50%

Arrieta

Hill

L 0-1 Oct 16

54%

vs.

46%

Hendricks

Kershaw

W 8-4 Oct 15

68%

vs.

32%

Lester

Maeda

W 6-5 Oct 11

56%

@

44%

Lackey

Moore

L 5-6 Oct 10

52%

@

48%

Arrieta

Bumgarner

W 5-2 Oct 8

68%

vs.

32%

Hendricks

Samardzija

W 1-0 Oct 7

65%

vs.

35%

Lester

Cueto

W 7-4 Oct 2

69%

@

31%

Hendricks

Stephenson

L 4-7 Oct 1

66%

@

34%

Lester

Adleman

W 7-3 Sep 30

59%

@

41%

Buchanan

Smith

T 1-1 Sep 29

50%

@

50%

Zastryzny

Nova

L 4-8 Sep 28

57%

@

43%

Arrieta

Taillon

W 6-4 Sep 27

60%

@

40%

Lackey

Vogelsong

W 12-2 Sep 26

57%

@

43%

Hendricks

Kuhl

W 3-1 Sep 25

61%

vs.

39%

Lester

Martinez

L 4-10 Sep 24

55%

vs.

45%

Hammel

Reyes

W 5-0 Sep 23

64%

vs.

36%

Arrieta

Leake

W 9-2 Sep 21

71%

vs.

29%

Lackey

Stephenson

W 6-1 Sep 20

74%

vs.

26%

Lester

Smith

W 5-2 Sep 19

66%

vs.

34%

Hammel

Adleman

L 1-3 Sep 18

70%

vs.

30%

Hendricks

Peralta

L 3-11 Sep 17

68%

vs.

32%

Arrieta

Davies

W 5-4 Sep 16

68%

vs.

32%

Lackey

Anderson

L 4-5 Sep 15

64%

vs.

36%

Montgomery

Nelson

W 7-0 Sep 14

54%

@

46%

Lester

Martinez

L 2-4 Sep 13

53%

@

47%

Hammel

Garcia

W 4-1 Sep 12

57%

@

43%

Hendricks

Leake

W 9-5 Sep 11

55%

@

45%

Arrieta

Fiers

L 1-2 Sep 10

55%

@

45%

Lackey

McHugh

W 2-0 Sep 9

58%

@

42%

Lester

Musgrove

L 1-2 Sep 7

58%

@

42%

Montgomery

Garza

L 5-12 Sep 6

62%

@

38%

Hammel

Peralta

W 7-2 Sep 5

63%

@

37%

Hendricks

Davies

W 3-2 Sep 4

60%

vs.

40%

Lackey

Cueto

L 2-3 Sep 3

61%

vs.

39%

Arrieta

Bumgarner

W 2-1 Sep 2

65%

vs.

35%

Lester

Suarez

W 5-4 Sep 1

57%

vs.

43%

Montgomery

Samardzija

W 6-5 Aug 31

60%

vs.

40%

Hammel

Vogelsong

W 3-0 Aug 30

61%

vs.

39%

Hendricks

Kuhl

W 8-7 Aug 29

65%

vs.

35%

Arrieta

Brault

L 0-1 Aug 28

61%

@

39%

Lester

Stewart

L 2-3 Aug 27

49%

@

51%

Hammel

Urias

W 6-4 Aug 26

47%

@

53%

Montgomery

Norris

W 6-3 Aug 24

65%

@

35%

Hendricks

Clemens

W 5-3 Aug 23

65%

@

35%

Arrieta

Friedrich

W 5-1 Aug 22

65%

@

35%

Lester

Jackson

L 4-11 Aug 21

59%

@

41%

Hammel

De La Rosa

W 9-2 Aug 20

54%

@

46%

Montgomery

Hoffman

L 6-7 Aug 19

55%

@

45%

Hendricks

Anderson

W 9-6 Aug 18

70%

vs.

30%

Arrieta

Davies

W 6-1 Aug 17

70%

vs.

30%

Lester

Nelson

W 4-1 Aug 16

68%

vs.

32%

Hammel

Anderson

W 4-0 Aug 16

63%

vs.

37%

Cahill

Garza

L 4-6 Aug 14

62%

vs.

38%

Lackey

Leake

L 4-8 Aug 13

65%

vs.

35%

Hendricks

Weaver

W 13-2 Aug 12

63%

vs.

37%

Arrieta

Wainwright

W 4-3 Aug 11

60%

vs.

40%

Lester

Martinez

W 3-1 Aug 10

62%

vs.

38%

Hammel

Nolasco

W 5-1 Aug 9

64%

vs.

36%

Lackey

Weaver

W 3-1 Aug 7

59%

@

41%

Hendricks

Manaea

W 4-0 Aug 6

63%

@

37%

Arrieta

Gray

W 7-2 Aug 5

67%

@

33%

Lester

Overton

W 5-4 Aug 3

64%

vs.

36%

Lackey

Koehler

W 3-2 Aug 2

53%

vs.

47%

Hammel

Fernandez

W 5-0 Aug 1

61%

vs.

39%

Hendricks

Conley

W 7-6 Jul 31

52%

vs.

48%

Matusz

Hernandez

L 1-4 Jul 30

65%

vs.

35%

Arrieta

Miley

W 12-1 Jul 29

57%

vs.

43%

Lester

Iwakuma

W 3-1 Jul 28

57%

vs.

43%

Lackey

Sale

W 8-1 Jul 27

62%

vs.

38%

Hammel

Ranaudo

L 0-3 Jul 26

59%

@

41%

Hendricks

Shields

L 4-5 Jul 25

61%

@

39%

Arrieta

Gonzalez

W 6-5 Jul 24

55%

@

45%

Lester

Guerra

L 1-6 Jul 23

59%

@

41%

Lackey

Davies

W 5-2 Jul 22

57%

@

43%

Hammel

Nelson

W 6-2 Jul 20

61%

vs.

39%

Hendricks

Colon

L 1-2 Jul 19

60%

vs.

40%

Arrieta

Syndergaard

W 5-1 Jul 18

60%

vs.

40%

Lester

Matz

L 1-4 Jul 17

56%

vs.

44%

Lackey

Hamels

W 3-1 Jul 16

50%

vs.

50%

Hammel

Darvish

W 6-0 Jul 15

59%

vs.

41%

Hendricks

Perez

W 6-5 Jul 10

53%

@

47%

Lackey

Niese

L 6-12 Jul 9

52%

@

48%

Lester

Kuhl

L 4-8 Jul 8

57%

@

43%

Arrieta

Liriano

L 3-4 Jul 7

72%

vs.

28%

Hammel

Harrell

L 3-5 Jul 6

66%

vs.

34%

Warren

DeSclafani

L 5-9 Jul 5

72%

vs.

28%

Lackey

Finnegan

W 10-4 Jul 4

75%

vs.

25%

Hendricks

Reed

L 3-14 Jul 3

55%

@

45%

Lester

Syndergaard

L 3-4 Jul 2

61%

@

39%

Arrieta

Colon

L 2-10 Jul 1

50%

@

50%

Hammel

deGrom

L 3-4 Jun 30

57%

@

43%

Lackey

Matz

W 9-2 Jun 29

67%

@

33%

Hendricks

Reed

W 7-2 Jun 28

68%

@

32%

Lester

Lamb

W 11-8 Jun 27

68%

@

32%

Arrieta

Straily

L 1-6 Jun 26

47%

@

53%

Hammel

Fernandez

L 6-9 Jun 25

64%

@

36%

Lackey

Clemens

W 5-4 Jun 24

59%

@

41%

Hendricks

Koehler

L 2-4 Jun 23

61%

@

39%

Lester

Chen

L 2-7 Jun 22

68%

vs.

32%

Arrieta

Wacha

L 3-4 Jun 21

57%

vs.

43%

Hammel

Wainwright

L 2-3 Jun 20

63%

vs.

37%

Lackey

Garcia

W 10-5 Jun 19

59%

vs.

41%

Hendricks

Taillon

W 4-3 Jun 18

67%

vs.

33%

Lester

Niese

W 6-0 Jun 17

69%

vs.

31%

Arrieta

Liriano

L 4-5 Jun 15

46%

@

54%

Hammel

Strasburg

W 4-3 Jun 14

55%

@

45%

Lackey

Gonzalez

L 1-4 Jun 13

48%

@

52%

Hendricks

Scherzer

W 13-2 Jun 12

70%

@

30%

Lester

Gant

W 8-2 Jun 11

73%

@

27%

Arrieta

Wisler

L 1-5 Jun 10

69%

@

31%

Hammel

Norris

W 8-1 Jun 8

66%

@

34%

Lackey

Velasquez

L 2-3 Jun 7

65%

@

35%

Hendricks

Eickhoff

W 6-4 Jun 6

70%

@

30%

Lester

Morgan

L 2-3 Jun 5

73%

vs.

27%

Arrieta

Corbin

W 5-3 Jun 4

69%

vs.

31%

Hammel

Escobar

W 6-0 Jun 3

70%

vs.

30%

Lackey

Bradley

W 7-2 Jun 2

64%

vs.

36%

Hendricks

Urias

W 2-1 Jun 1

65%

vs.

35%

Lester

Bolsinger

L 0-5 May 31

69%

vs.

31%

Arrieta

Kazmir

W 2-0 May 30

59%

vs.

41%

Hammel

Wood

W 7-2 May 29

70%

vs.

30%

Lackey

Velasquez

W 4-1 May 28

69%

vs.

31%

Hendricks

Eickhoff

W 6-2 May 27

74%

vs.

26%

Lester

Morgan

W 9-8 May 25

61%

@

39%

Arrieta

Martinez

W 12-3 May 24

52%

@

48%

Hammel

Wacha

L 3-4 May 23

54%

@

46%

Lackey

Wainwright

L 0-1 May 22

48%

@

52%

Hendricks

Bumgarner

L 3-5 May 21

62%

@

38%

Lester

Cain

W 8-1 May 20

64%

@

36%

Arrieta

Peavy

L 3-5 May 19

57%

@

43%

Hammel

Guerra

W 2-1 May 18

61%

@

39%

Lackey

Nelson

L 2-4 May 17

63%

@

37%

Hendricks

Anderson

L 1-2 May 15

60%

vs.

40%

Lester

Cole

W 8-2 May 14

71%

vs.

29%

Arrieta

Locke

W 9-4 May 13

56%

vs.

44%

Hammel

Liriano

L 0-1 May 11

68%

vs.

32%

Lackey

Pomeranz

L 4-7 May 11

69%

vs.

31%

Hendricks

Rea

W 8-7 May 10

71%

vs.

29%

Lester

Vargas

W 4-3 May 8

69%

vs.

31%

Arrieta

Roark

W 8-5 May 7

57%

vs.

43%

Hammel

Gonzalez

W 8-6 May 6

56%

vs.

44%

Lackey

Scherzer

W 5-2 May 5

58%

vs.

42%

Hendricks

Ross

W 6-2 May 4

59%

@

41%

Lester

Nicasio

W 7-1 May 3

65%

@

35%

Arrieta

Niese

W 7-2 May 2

45%

@

55%

Hammel

Cole

L 3-4 May 1

70%

vs.

30%

Lackey

Teheran

W 6-1 Apr 29

74%

vs.

26%

Lester

Blair

W 7-2 Apr 28

76%

vs.

24%

Arrieta

Jungmann

W 4-3 Apr 26

66%

vs.

34%

Hendricks

Nelson

W 9-0 Apr 24

61%

@

39%

Hammel

Simon

L 5-13 Apr 23

63%

@

37%

Lackey

Straily

W 8-1 Apr 22

66%

@

34%

Lester

Moscot

W 16-0 Apr 21

68%

@

32%

Arrieta

Finnegan

L 3-5 Apr 20

52%

@

48%

Hendricks

Martinez

W 2-1 Apr 19

47%

@

53%

Hammel

Garcia

W 5-0 Apr 18

52%

@

48%

Lackey

Leake

L 0-2 Apr 17

69%

vs.

31%

Lester

Chatwood

W 6-2 Apr 16

76%

vs.

24%

Arrieta

Bergman

L 1-6 Apr 15

67%

vs.

33%

Hendricks

Bettis

W 8-1 Apr 14

62%

vs.

38%

Hammel

Iglesias

W 9-2 Apr 13

69%

vs.

31%

Lackey

Simon

W 5-3 Apr 11

68%

vs.

32%

Lester

Finnegan

W 7-3 Apr 10

66%

@

34%

Arrieta

Miller

W 4-2 Apr 9

49%

@

51%

Hendricks

Greinke

L 2-3 Apr 8

53%

@

47%

Hammel

Ray

W 14-6 Apr 7

59%

@

41%

Lackey

De La Rosa

W 6-1 Apr 5

58%

@

42%

Lester

Heaney

W 9-0 Apr 4

61%

@

39%

Arrieta

Richards

Show more games ▾

CommentsAdd Comment