Mets | 2016 MLB Predictions | FiveThirtyEight

Elo history ESPN coverage

The Mets are done for the season.

See our 2018 MLB predictions »

Starting Pitcher Adjustments

Noah Syndergaard

58.2

+29.1

Robert Gsellman

55.9

+18.3

Seth Lugo

50.8

-5.5

Bartolo Colon

50.1

-9.1

Gabriel Ynoa

48.4

-16.7

Sean Gilmartin

40.6

-53.4

Completed games

L 0-3 Oct 5

55%

vs.

45%

Syndergaard

Bumgarner

L 2-5 Oct 2

55%

@

45%

Ynoa

Eickhoff

W 5-3 Oct 1

61%

@

39%

Colon

Klein

W 5-1 Sep 30

62%

@

38%

Gsellman

Asher

W 5-2 Sep 28

54%

@

46%

Lugo

Urena

W 12-1 Sep 27

56%

@

44%

Syndergaard

Koehler

L 3-7 Sep 26

51%

@

49%

Colon

Conley

W 17-0 Sep 25

65%

vs.

35%

Gsellman

Thompson

L 8-10 Sep 24

62%

vs.

38%

Gilmartin

Asher

W 10-5 Sep 23

60%

vs.

40%

Ynoa

Hellickson

W 9-8 Sep 22

66%

vs.

34%

Lugo

Morgan

L 3-4 Sep 21

63%

vs.

37%

Colon

Weber

L 4-5 Sep 20

56%

vs.

43%

Gsellman

Teheran

L 3-7 Sep 19

74%

vs.

26%

Syndergaard

Blair

W 3-2 Sep 18

59%

vs.

41%

Ynoa

Gibson

W 3-2 Sep 17

60%

vs.

40%

Lugo

Santana

W 3-0 Sep 16

67%

vs.

33%

Colon

Berrios

L 0-1 Sep 14

40%

@

60%

Gsellman

Roark

W 4-3 Sep 13

50%

@

50%

Syndergaard

Cole

L 1-8 Sep 12

44%

@

56%

Montero

Latos

W 10-3 Sep 11

60%

@

40%

Lugo

Perez

L 3-4 Sep 10

55%

@

45%

Colon

Gant

W 6-4 Sep 9

49%

@

51%

Gsellman

Teheran

W 6-3 Sep 7

55%

@

45%

Syndergaard

DeSclafani

W 5-3 Sep 6

50%

@

50%

Montero

Finnegan

W 5-0 Sep 5

51%

@

49%

Colon

Stephenson

W 5-1 Sep 4

55%

vs.

45%

Lugo

Lopez

W 3-1 Sep 3

45%

vs.

55%

Gsellman

Roark

L 1-4 Sep 2

56%

vs.

44%

Syndergaard

Cole

L 4-6 Sep 1

60%

vs.

40%

deGrom

Urena

W 5-2 Aug 31

56%

vs.

44%

Colon

Esch

W 7-4 Aug 30

56%

vs.

44%

Lugo

Koehler

W 2-1 Aug 29

46%

vs.

54%

Montero

Fernandez

L 1-5 Aug 28

59%

vs.

41%

Gsellman

Velasquez

W 12-1 Aug 27

62%

vs.

38%

Syndergaard

Hellickson

W 9-4 Aug 26

62%

vs.

38%

Colon

Morgan

W 10-6 Aug 25

40%

@

60%

Lugo

Wainwright

L 1-8 Aug 24

45%

@

55%

deGrom

Martinez

W 7-4 Aug 23

37%

@

63%

Niese

Garcia

W 2-0 Aug 21

47%

@

53%

Syndergaard

Samardzija

W 9-5 Aug 20

41%

@

59%

Colon

Moore

L 1-8 Aug 19

38%

@

62%

Lugo

Cueto

L 7-10 Aug 18

42%

@

58%

deGrom

Bumgarner

L 5-13 Aug 17

48%

@

52%

Niese

Godley

W 7-5 Aug 16

52%

@

48%

Syndergaard

Shipley

L 6-10 Aug 15

51%

@

49%

Colon

Ray

W 5-1 Aug 14

60%

vs.

40%

Matz

Richard

W 3-2 Aug 13

62%

vs.

38%

deGrom

Cosart

L 6-8 Aug 12

56%

vs.

44%

Verrett

Clemens

L 0-9 Aug 11

65%

vs.

35%

Syndergaard

Shipley

L 2-3 Aug 10

59%

vs.

41%

Colon

Ray

L 3-5 Aug 9

55%

vs.

45%

Matz

Greinke

W 3-1 Aug 7

53%

@

47%

deGrom

Sanchez

L 5-6 Aug 6

45%

@

55%

Verrett

Boyd

L 3-4 Aug 5

41%

@

59%

Syndergaard

Verlander

W 4-1 Aug 4

46%

@

54%

Colon

Eovaldi

L 5-9 Aug 3

54%

@

46%

Matz

Green

W 7-1 Aug 2

54%

vs.

46%

deGrom

Tanaka

L 5-6 Aug 1

52%

vs.

48%

Verrett

Sabathia

W 6-4 Jul 31

60%

vs.

40%

Syndergaard

Bettis

L 2-7 Jul 30

57%

vs.

43%

Colon

De La Rosa

L 1-6 Jul 29

57%

vs.

43%

Matz

Chatwood

L 1-2 Jul 28

60%

vs.

40%

deGrom

Anderson

L 4-5 Jul 27

44%

vs.

56%

Verrett

Wainwright

W 3-1 Jul 26

49%

vs.

51%

Colon

Garcia

L 2-3 Jul 26

52%

vs.

48%

Syndergaard

Martinez

W 3-0 Jul 24

50%

@

50%

Matz

Urena

L 2-7 Jul 23

47%

@

53%

deGrom

Fernandez

W 5-3 Jul 22

44%

@

56%

Verrett

Conley

L 2-6 Jul 20

39%

@

61%

Colon

Hendricks

W 2-1 Jul 19

40%

@

60%

Syndergaard

Arrieta

L 1-5 Jul 18

40%

@

60%

Matz

Lester

W 5-0 Jul 17

58%

@

42%

deGrom

Eflin

L 2-4 Jul 16

52%

@

48%

Verrett

Eickhoff

W 5-3 Jul 15

55%

@

45%

Colon

Hellickson

L 2-3 Jul 10

53%

vs.

47%

Matz

Gonzalez

L 1-6 Jul 9

42%

vs.

58%

Verrett

Scherzer

L 1-3 Jul 8

50%

vs.

50%

Syndergaard

Strasburg

W 9-7 Jul 7

53%

vs.

47%

Colon

Giolito

W 4-2 Jul 6

64%

vs.

36%

deGrom

Nicolino

L 2-5 Jul 5

58%

vs.

42%

Matz

Chen

W 8-6 Jul 4

60%

vs.

40%

Harvey

Koehler

W 14-3 Jul 3

45%

vs.

55%

Syndergaard

Lester

W 4-3 Jul 2

39%

vs.

61%

Colon

Arrieta

W 10-2 Jul 1

50%

vs.

50%

deGrom

Hammel

W 4-3 Jun 30

43%

vs.

57%

Matz

Lackey

L 2-4 Jun 29

34%

@

66%

Verrett

Scherzer

L 0-5 Jun 28

47%

@

53%

Harvey

Giolito

L 4-11 Jun 27

48%

@

52%

Syndergaard

Ross

L 2-5 Jun 26

58%

@

42%

Colon

Norris

W 1-0 Jun 25

56%

@

44%

deGrom

Teheran

W 8-6 Jun 24

65%

@

35%

Matz

Blair

L 3-4 Jun 23

59%

@

41%

Harvey

Wisler

W 4-3 Jun 22

56%

vs.

43%

Syndergaard

Duffy

W 2-1 Jun 21

53%

vs.

47%

Colon

Kennedy

L 0-6 Jun 19

64%

vs.

36%

deGrom

Teheran

L 3-4 Jun 18

73%

vs.

27%

Matz

Blair

L 1-5 Jun 17

68%

vs.

32%

Harvey

Gant

W 6-4 Jun 16

55%

vs.

45%

Colon

Nicasio

W 11-2 Jun 15

59%

vs.

41%

Syndergaard

Locke

L 0-4 Jun 14

59%

vs.

41%

deGrom

Taillon

L 3-5 Jun 12

55%

@

45%

Matz

Davies

L 4-7 Jun 11

57%

@

43%

Verrett

Peralta

W 2-1 Jun 10

52%

@

48%

Harvey

Guerra

W 5-2 Jun 9

51%

@

49%

Colon

Nelson

W 6-5 Jun 8

51%

@

49%

Syndergaard

Taillon

L 1-3 Jun 7

52%

@

48%

deGrom

Nicasio

L 1-3 Jun 7

50%

@

50%

Matz

Niese

L 0-1 Jun 5

45%

@

55%

Harvey

Fernandez

W 6-4 Jun 4

52%

@

48%

Colon

Nicolino

W 6-2 Jun 3

58%

@

42%

Syndergaard

Koehler

L 1-2 Jun 1

61%

vs.

39%

deGrom

Gonzalez

L 4-6 May 31

60%

vs.

40%

Matz

Latos

W 1-0 May 30

51%

vs.

49%

Harvey

Quintana

L 2-4 May 29

39%

vs.

61%

Colon

Kershaw

L 1-9 May 28

57%

vs.

43%

Syndergaard

Maeda

W 6-5 May 27

60%

vs.

40%

deGrom

Urias

W 2-0 May 25

48%

@

52%

Matz

Roark

L 4-7 May 24

42%

@

58%

Harvey

Strasburg

W 7-1 May 23

43%

@

57%

Colon

Gonzalez

W 3-1 May 22

66%

vs.

34%

Syndergaard

Anderson

W 5-4 May 21

66%

vs.

34%

deGrom

Davies

W 3-2 May 20

66%

vs.

34%

Matz

Peralta

L 1-9 May 19

51%

vs.

49%

Harvey

Strasburg

L 1-7 May 18

52%

vs.

48%

Colon

Gonzalez

W 2-0 May 17

53%

vs.

47%

Syndergaard

Scherzer

L 3-4 May 15

55%

@

45%

deGrom

Chatwood

L 4-7 May 14

60%

@

40%

Verrett

Butler

L 2-5 May 13

56%

@

44%

Harvey

Gray

L 0-5 May 12

37%

@

63%

Colon

Kershaw

W 4-3 May 11

45%

@

55%

Syndergaard

Maeda

L 2-3 May 10

53%

@

47%

deGrom

Wood

W 4-2 May 9

50%

@

50%

Matz

Kazmir

W 4-3 May 8

60%

@

40%

Harvey

Cashner

W 6-3 May 7

54%

@

46%

Colon

Shields

L 0-2 May 6

58%

@

42%

Syndergaard

Pomeranz

L 3-5 May 5

61%

@

39%

deGrom

Rea

W 8-0 May 4

64%

vs.

36%

Matz

Chacin

L 0-3 May 3

70%

vs.

30%

Harvey

Wisler

W 4-1 May 2

69%

vs.

31%

Colon

Foltynewicz

L 1-6 May 1

55%

vs.

45%

Syndergaard

Bumgarner

W 6-5 Apr 30

64%

vs.

36%

deGrom

Cain

W 13-1 Apr 29

55%

vs.

45%

Matz

Peavy

W 5-2 Apr 27

68%

vs.

32%

Harvey

Moscot

W 4-3 Apr 26

62%

vs.

38%

Colon

Finnegan

W 5-3 Apr 25

64%

vs.

36%

Syndergaard

Iglesias

W 3-2 Apr 24

64%

@

36%

deGrom

Blair

W 8-2 Apr 23

55%

@

45%

Matz

Chacin

W 6-3 Apr 22

62%

@

38%

Harvey

Norris

L 4-5 Apr 20

59%

@

41%

Colon

Hellickson

W 11-1 Apr 19

55%

@

45%

Verrett

Velasquez

W 5-2 Apr 18

58%

@

42%

Syndergaard

Eickhoff

W 6-0 Apr 17

39%

@

61%

Matz

Kluber

L 5-7 Apr 16

51%

@

49%

Harvey

Tomlin

W 6-5 Apr 15

46%

@

54%

Colon

Anderson

W 2-1 Apr 13

57%

vs.

43%

Verrett

Conley

L 1-2 Apr 12

55%

vs.

45%

Syndergaard

Fernandez

L 3-10 Apr 11

60%

vs.

40%

Matz

Cosart

L 2-5 Apr 10

69%

vs.

31%

Harvey

Hellickson

L 0-1 Apr 9

64%

vs.

36%

Colon

Velasquez

W 7-2 Apr 8

69%

vs.

31%

deGrom

Eickhoff

W 2-0 Apr 5

51%

@

49%

Syndergaard

Young

L 3-4 Apr 3

53%

@

47%

Harvey

Volquez

Show more games ▾

CommentsAdd Comment