Pennsylvania 1st

Lean R

1 in 4

Chance the Democrat wins (25.5%)

3 in 4

Chance the Republican wins (74.5%)

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# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the Pennsylvania 1st

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • R+2.0

    Adjusted polls

  • D+0.4

    CANTOR

  • R+6.8

    Fundamentals

  • R+1.9

    Experts

  • R+0.8

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • R+4.5

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • R+3.7

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in the Pennsylvania 1st

We've collected two polls for the Pennsylvania 1st. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Wallace
Fitzpatrick
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
May 31-Jun. 3
5/31-6/3
Monmouth University254LV
0.48
48%48%EVEN 0.8 1.4 R+0.4
May 12-14
5/12-14
DCCC Targeting Team
D
540LV
0.37
46%48%R+2.0 0.9 3.4 R+4.2

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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