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Aug. 25, 2020

Night 1 of the Republican National Convention is over, and the Republicans covered a lot of ground, including how President Trump has handled the coronavirus and whether America is racist. It was a mixture, too, of more Trumpian Republicans like Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida and Kimberly Guilfoyle, a former Fox News host and Donald Trump Jr.’s girlfriend, who were defending Trump’s record alongside more traditional Republicans like former UN ambassador Nikki Haley and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott. The question is whether Americans will be receptive to this version of Trump and the GOP or whether public opinion of Trump is already fixed. The next three days will be important, too, as Trump is trailing Biden significantly in the polls. In fact, as Geoffrey Skelley and Nathaniel Rakich wrote on Monday, no incumbent president has trailed by as much as Trump heading into the conventions since 1968, so a convention bounce could really be make-or-break for Trump.

  • Regardless of whether Trump wins reelection, however, there’s reason to believe he’s remade the party in his own image. FiveThirtyEight contributor Lee Drutman writes about why there are so few moderate Republicans nowadays and why our politics reward extreme stances within the two parties.
  • Also, we’re not entirely sure what to make of it yet, but it does seem as if Trump’s approval rating is slowly ticking back up from its most recent nadir. His ratings for how he’s handled the coronavirus pandemic, however, remain poor.

2020 Election Coverage

To put all these numbers in context, check out our coverage and subscribe to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast!

 

We simulate the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. The sample of 100 outcomes below gives you a good idea of the range of scenarios our model thinks is possible.

Trump win
Biden win

No Electoral College majority, House decides election
Don’t count the underdog out! Upset wins are surprising but not impossible.

Every outcome in our simulations

All possible Electoral College outcomes for each candidate, with higher bars showing outcomes that appeared more often in our 40,000 simulations

More bars to the right of the 270 line means more simulations where that candidate wins. Some of the bars represent really weird outcomes, but you never know!

The winding path to victory

States that are forecasted to vote for one candidate by a big margin are at the ends of the path, while tighter races are in the middle. Bigger segments mean more Electoral College votes. Trace the path from either end to see which state could put one candidate over the top.

Maine and Nebraska’s congressional districts are shown separately because those states split their Electoral College votes, allotting some to the statewide winner and some to the winner of each district.
We call this the 🐍 snake 🐍 chart! This makes it easy to see why some states are hotly contested and others mostly get ignored.

How the forecast has changed

The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll. Click the buttons to see the ways each candidate’s outlook has changed over time.

As the election gets closer — and as we get swamped with new polls 😬 — the forecast will get less uncertain.

Want more stuff like this? See how the race is shaping up in individual states, or watch our Election Updates on YouTube.
Congrats, you made it to the bottom! If you’re looking for the nitty-gritty of how our forecast works, check out the methodology.

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