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Night 1 of the Republican National Convention is over, and the Republicans covered a lot of ground, including how President Trump has handled the coronavirus and whether America is racist. It was a mixture, too, of more Trumpian Republicans like Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida and Kimberly Guilfoyle, a former Fox News host and Donald Trump Jr.’s girlfriend, who were defending Trump’s record alongside more traditional Republicans like former UN ambassador Nikki Haley and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott. The question is whether Americans will be receptive to this version of Trump and the GOP or whether public opinion of Trump is already fixed. The next three days will be important, too, as Trump is trailing Biden significantly in the polls. In fact, as Geoffrey Skelley and Nathaniel Rakich wrote on Monday, no incumbent president has trailed by as much as Trump heading into the conventions since 1968, so a convention bounce could really be make-or-break for Trump.
2020 Election Coverage
We simulate the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. The sample of 100 outcomes below gives you a good idea of the range of scenarios our model thinks is possible.
All possible Electoral College outcomes for each candidate, with higher bars showing outcomes that appeared more often in our 40,000 simulations
States that are forecasted to vote for one candidate by a big margin are at the ends of the path, while tighter races are in the middle. Bigger segments mean more Electoral College votes. Trace the path from either end to see which state could put one candidate over the top.
The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll. Click the buttons to see the ways each candidate’s outlook has changed over time.
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