shoe gif

UPDATED Oct. 20, 2019, at 11:38 PM

2019-20 NBA Predictions

Powered by FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR player ratings

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:Player projectionsEvery team’s Elo history

shoe gif

The Indiana Pacers have a 79% chance of making the playoffs and a <1% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Victor OladipoV. Oladipo000000-32
+1.2
+2.3
Myles TurnerM. Turner00003131+1
-1.3
+1.9
T.J. WarrenT. Warren00227029SAME
+0.3
-0.7
Malcolm BrogdonM. Brogdon22700029SAME
+1.8
+0.3
Domantas SabonisD. Sabonis00025227SAME
+0.2
+0.7
Jeremy LambJ. Lamb02810029+5
+1.3
+0.2
Aaron HolidayA. Holiday19000019+4
+0.5
+0.5
Doug McDermottD. McDermott02170019SAME
-0.7
-2.0
Justin HolidayJ. Holiday0920011+5
-1.6
+0.9
T.J. McConnellT. McConnell700007+5
-0.8
0.0
TJ LeafT. Leaf00012012+1
-1.0
0.0
Goga BitadzeG. Bitadze00001515+2
-3.5
-0.4
Edmond SumnerE. Sumner011002+2
-0.7
-0.3
Jakarr SampsonJ. Sampson002002+2
-1.1
-0.2
Replacement-level CRepl. C000000SAME
-2.7
-0.1
Alize JohnsonA. Johnson000404+1
-2.1
-0.5
Naz Mitrou-LongN. Mitrou-Long011002+2
-0.8
-1.5
Brian BowenB. Bowen002002+2
-3.3
-0.6
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-0.8
+0.7
Points per gameWe combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.4 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.
Points per game
We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.4 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.
109-109
Rotation winsWe use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Rotation wins
We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
41
Team ratingThen we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
Team rating
Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1501
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Victor OladipoV. Oladipo22820032
+1.2
+2.3
Myles TurnerM. Turner00003030
-1.3
+1.9
T.J. WarrenT. Warren001712029
+0.3
-0.7
Malcolm BrogdonM. Brogdon29000029
+1.8
+0.3
Domantas SabonisD. Sabonis00022527
+0.2
+0.7
Jeremy LambJ. Lamb01860024
+1.3
+0.2
Aaron HolidayA. Holiday15000015
+0.5
+0.5
Doug McDermottD. McDermott00190019
-0.7
-2.0
Justin HolidayJ. Holiday024006
-1.6
+0.9
T.J. McConnellT. McConnell200002
-0.8
0.0
TJ LeafT. Leaf00011011
-1.0
0.0
Goga BitadzeG. Bitadze00001313
-3.5
-0.4
Edmond SumnerE. Sumner000000
-0.7
-0.3
Jakarr SampsonJ. Sampson000000
-1.1
-0.2
Replacement-level CRepl. C000000
-2.7
-0.1
Alize JohnsonA. Johnson000303
-2.1
-0.5
Naz Mitrou-LongN. Mitrou-Long000000
-0.8
-1.5
Brian BowenB. Bowen000000
-3.3
-0.6
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+0.3
+1.8
Points per gameWe combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.9 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.
Points per game
We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.9 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.
111-109
Rotation winsWe use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Rotation wins
We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
47
Team ratingThen we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
Team rating
Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1560
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Victor OladipoV. Oladipo52450034+2
+1.2
+2.3
Myles TurnerM. Turner00033033+3
-1.3
+1.9
T.J. WarrenT. Warren00237030+1
+0.3
-0.7
Malcolm BrogdonM. Brogdon30100031+2
+1.7
+0.3
Domantas SabonisD. Sabonis00024529+2
+0.2
+0.7
Jeremy LambJ. Lamb02270029+5
+1.3
+0.3
Aaron HolidayA. Holiday13000013-2
+0.5
+0.5
Doug McDermottD. McDermott01130014-5
-0.6
-2.0
Justin HolidayJ. Holiday000000-6
-1.6
+0.9
T.J. McConnellT. McConnell000000-2
-0.6
0.0
TJ LeafT. Leaf00011011SAME
-0.9
0.0
Goga BitadzeG. Bitadze00001212-1
-3.4
-0.3
Edmond SumnerE. Sumner000000SAME
-0.6
-0.3
Jakarr SampsonJ. Sampson000000SAME
-1.1
-0.2
Replacement-level CRepl. C000011+1
-2.7
-0.1
Alize JohnsonA. Johnson000303SAME
-2.0
-0.4
Naz Mitrou-LongN. Mitrou-Long000000SAME
-0.8
-1.5
Brian BowenB. Bowen000000SAME
-3.2
-0.5
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+0.8
+2.5
Points per gameWe combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.
Points per game
We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.
107-104
Rotation winsWe use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Rotation wins
We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
49
Team ratingThen we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
Team rating
Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1583
Playoff ratingFinally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.
Playoff rating
Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.
1578
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

At full strength vs. with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

Comments