Get more FiveThirtyEight
- Terms of Use
- Privacy Policy
- Do Not Sell My Info
- Your California Privacy Rights
- Children's Online Privacy Policy
- Interest-Based Ads
© 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. All rights reserved.
More NBA:Our preseason player projectionsRAPTOR player ratingsBuild your own team
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
Expected minutes per game | PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | |||||||
Trae Young | T. Young | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | -17 | +6.2 | -3.7 | |||||||
John Collins | J. Collins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -31 | +1.5 | +0.4 | |||||||
Cam Reddish | C. Reddish | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -25 | -2.0 | -0.2 | |||||||
De'Andre Hunter | D. Hunter | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 16 | -11 | -0.7 | +2.3 | |||||||
Clint Capela | C. Capela | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 32 | +9 | +0.4 | +4.5 | |||||||
Bogdan Bogdanovic | B. Bogdanovic | 0 | 15 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 27 | +11 | +1.2 | -0.4 | |||||||
Lou Williams | L. Williams | 12 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | +7 | +1.4 | -3.3 | |||||||
Kevin Huerter | K. Huerter | 1 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | +10 | 0.0 | -1.4 | |||||||
Solomon Hill | S. Hill | 0 | 0 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 18 | +9 | -1.6 | -1.1 | |||||||
Brandon Goodwin | B. Goodwin | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | +3 | -1.0 | -0.9 | |||||||
Onyeka Okongwu | O. Okongwu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 14 | +5 | -1.9 | +0.5 | |||||||
Bruno Fernando* | B. Fernando* | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 16 | +6 | -3.2 | -0.7 | |||||||
Danilo Gallinari | D. Gallinari | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 18 | +9 | +2.0 | -0.5 | |||||||
Tony Snell | T. Snell | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 18 | +9 | -0.4 | -1.6 | |||||||
Kris Dunn | K. Dunn | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | +6 | -1.6 | +2.4 | |||||||
Skylar Mays | S. Mays | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SAME | -0.4 | -0.1 | |||||||
Nathan Knight | N. Knight | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SAME | -1.6 | -0.3 | |||||||
Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +1.4 | -0.8 | |||||||||||||
Adj. rotation ratings | A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | +1.3 | -1.0 | |||||||||||||
Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 112-111 | ||||||||||||||
Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 42 | ||||||||||||||
Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1510 | ||||||||||||||
Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1554). The weight given to Elo — 25% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1554). The weight given to Elo — 25% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1522 |
Expected minutes per game | PLAYER RATING | PLAYER RATING | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | TOTAL | Exp. min. per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||
Trae Young | T. Young | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 35 | +6.2 | -3.7 | ||||
John Collins | J. Collins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 15 | 31 | +1.5 | +0.4 | ||||
Cam Reddish | C. Reddish | 0 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 25 | -2.0 | -0.2 | ||||
De'Andre Hunter | D. Hunter | 0 | 0 | 20 | 7 | 0 | 27 | -0.7 | +2.3 | ||||
Clint Capela | C. Capela | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 23 | +0.4 | +4.5 | ||||
Bogdan Bogdanovic | B. Bogdanovic | 0 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | +1.2 | -0.4 | ||||
Lou Williams | L. Williams | 4 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | +1.4 | -3.3 | ||||
Kevin Huerter | K. Huerter | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0.0 | -1.4 | ||||
Solomon Hill | S. Hill | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 9 | -1.6 | -1.1 | ||||
Brandon Goodwin | B. Goodwin | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | -1.0 | -0.9 | ||||
Onyeka Okongwu | O. Okongwu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9 | -1.9 | +0.5 | ||||
Bruno Fernando | B. Fernando | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 | -3.2 | -0.7 | ||||
Danilo Gallinari | D. Gallinari | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9 | +2.0 | -0.5 | ||||
Tony Snell | T. Snell | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | -0.4 | -1.6 | ||||
Kris Dunn | K. Dunn | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.6 | +2.4 | ||||
Skylar Mays | S. Mays | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.4 | -0.1 | ||||
Nathan Knight | N. Knight | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.6 | -0.3 | ||||
Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +3.1 | -1.2 | |||||||||
Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 103.2 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 103.2 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 115-113 | ||||||||||
Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 46 | ||||||||||
Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1554 | ||||||||||
Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1554). The weight given to Elo — 12% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1554). The weight given to Elo — 12% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1554 |
Expected minutes per game | PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | |||||||
Trae Young | T. Young | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 37 | +2 | +6.2 | -3.7 | |||||||
John Collins | J. Collins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 12 | 31 | SAME | +1.5 | +0.4 | |||||||
Cam Reddish | C. Reddish | 0 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 29 | +4 | -2.0 | -0.2 | |||||||
De'Andre Hunter | D. Hunter | 0 | 0 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 32 | +5 | -0.7 | +2.3 | |||||||
Clint Capela | C. Capela | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 30 | +7 | +0.4 | +4.5 | |||||||
Bogdan Bogdanovic | B. Bogdanovic | 0 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 26 | +10 | +1.2 | -0.4 | |||||||
Lou Williams | L. Williams | 9 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | +6 | +1.3 | -3.3 | |||||||
Kevin Huerter | K. Huerter | 1 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | +6 | +0.1 | -1.4 | |||||||
Solomon Hill | S. Hill | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -7 | -1.4 | -1.0 | |||||||
Brandon Goodwin | B. Goodwin | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -8 | -1.0 | -0.9 | |||||||
Onyeka Okongwu | O. Okongwu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -7 | -1.9 | +0.5 | |||||||
Bruno Fernando | B. Fernando | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | -4 | -3.2 | -0.7 | |||||||
Danilo Gallinari | D. Gallinari | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | +1.7 | -0.6 | |||||||
Tony Snell | T. Snell | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | -0.4 | -1.6 | |||||||
Kris Dunn | K. Dunn | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SAME | -1.6 | +2.4 | |||||||
Skylar Mays | S. Mays | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SAME | -0.3 | -0.1 | |||||||
Nathan Knight | N. Knight | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SAME | -1.6 | -0.3 | |||||||
Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +4.6 | -0.7 | |||||||||||||
Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 100.2 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 100.2 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 113-109 | ||||||||||||||
Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 50 | ||||||||||||||
Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1595 | ||||||||||||||
Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1554). The weight given to Elo — 4% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1554). The weight given to Elo — 4% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1593 | ||||||||||||||
Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1596 |
Comments