Get more FiveThirtyEight
- Terms of Use
- Privacy Policy
- Do Not Sell My Info
- Your California Privacy Rights
- Children's Online Privacy Policy
- Interest-Based Ads
© 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. All rights reserved.
More NBA:Our preseason player projectionsRAPTOR player ratingsBuild your own team
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
Expected minutes per game | PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | |||||||
Julius Randle | J. Randle | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 11 | 36 | +9 | +0.3 | +0.7 | |||||||
RJ Barrett | R. Barrett | 0 | 11 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 33 | SAME | -0.4 | -0.7 | |||||||
Elfrid Payton | E. Payton | 19 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26 | SAME | -0.2 | -1.0 | |||||||
Mitchell Robinson | M. Robinson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -27 | -0.9 | +2.0 | |||||||
Obi Toppin | O. Toppin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 14 | SAME | -1.9 | -0.7 | |||||||
Reggie Bullock | R. Bullock | 0 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 22 | +2 | -1.1 | -0.4 | |||||||
Immanuel Quickley | I. Quickley | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | SAME | +1.4 | -1.8 | |||||||
Frank Ntilikina | F. Ntilikina | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | SAME | -1.9 | +0.7 | |||||||
Derrick Rose | D. Rose | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | +1 | +0.4 | -0.7 | |||||||
Kevin Knox II | K. Knox II | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 16 | +4 | -2.5 | -1.4 | |||||||
Nerlens Noel | N. Noel | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 19 | +10 | -2.5 | +2.8 | |||||||
Alec Burks | A. Burks | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | +1 | +1.0 | -0.6 | |||||||
John Henson | J. Henson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | -5 | -1.4 | +1.8 | |||||||
Theo Pinson | T. Pinson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SAME | -1.4 | +0.1 | |||||||
Norvel Pelle | N. Pelle | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 13 | +4 | -2.4 | -0.2 | |||||||
Jared Harper | J. Harper | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SAME | -0.7 | -0.9 | |||||||
Taj Gibson | T. Gibson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | -2.0 | +1.6 | |||||||
Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -2.8 | -0.7 | |||||||||||||
Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.2 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.2 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 107-110 | ||||||||||||||
Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 32 | ||||||||||||||
Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1414 | ||||||||||||||
Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1511). The weight given to Elo — 28% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1511). The weight given to Elo — 28% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1441 |
Expected minutes per game | PLAYER RATING | PLAYER RATING | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | TOTAL | Exp. min. per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||
Julius Randle | J. Randle | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 27 | +0.3 | +0.7 | ||||
RJ Barrett | R. Barrett | 0 | 10 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 33 | -0.4 | -0.7 | ||||
Elfrid Payton | E. Payton | 19 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26 | -0.2 | -1.0 | ||||
Mitchell Robinson | M. Robinson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 27 | -0.9 | +2.0 | ||||
Obi Toppin | O. Toppin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 14 | -1.9 | -0.7 | ||||
Reggie Bullock | R. Bullock | 0 | 7 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 20 | -1.1 | -0.4 | ||||
Immanuel Quickley | I. Quickley | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | +1.4 | -1.8 | ||||
Frank Ntilikina | F. Ntilikina | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | -1.9 | +0.7 | ||||
Derrick Rose | D. Rose | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | +0.4 | -0.7 | ||||
Kevin Knox II | K. Knox II | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 12 | -2.5 | -1.4 | ||||
Nerlens Noel | N. Noel | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | -2.5 | +2.8 | ||||
Alec Burks | A. Burks | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | +1.0 | -0.6 | ||||
John Henson | J. Henson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -1.4 | +1.8 | ||||
Theo Pinson | T. Pinson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.4 | +0.1 | ||||
Norvel Pelle | N. Pelle | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -2.4 | -0.2 | ||||
Jared Harper | J. Harper | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.7 | -0.9 | ||||
Taj Gibson | T. Gibson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.0 | +1.6 | ||||
Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -2.6 | -0.1 | |||||||||
Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 100.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 100.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 107-109 | ||||||||||
Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 34 | ||||||||||
Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1435 | ||||||||||
Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1511). The weight given to Elo — 18% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1511). The weight given to Elo — 18% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1449 |
Expected minutes per game | PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | |||||||
Julius Randle | J. Randle | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 8 | 35 | +8 | +0.3 | +0.7 | |||||||
RJ Barrett | R. Barrett | 0 | 14 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 35 | +2 | -0.4 | -0.7 | |||||||
Elfrid Payton | E. Payton | 21 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25 | -1 | -0.2 | -1.0 | |||||||
Mitchell Robinson | M. Robinson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 27 | SAME | -0.9 | +2.0 | |||||||
Obi Toppin | O. Toppin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 13 | -1 | -1.9 | -0.7 | |||||||
Reggie Bullock | R. Bullock | 0 | 13 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 24 | +4 | -1.1 | -0.4 | |||||||
Immanuel Quickley | I. Quickley | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | -1 | +1.5 | -1.8 | |||||||
Frank Ntilikina | F. Ntilikina | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | -1 | -1.9 | +0.7 | |||||||
Derrick Rose | D. Rose | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | -1 | +0.6 | -0.6 | |||||||
Kevin Knox II | K. Knox II | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | -1 | -2.5 | -1.4 | |||||||
Nerlens Noel | N. Noel | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | -2 | -2.5 | +2.8 | |||||||
Alec Burks | A. Burks | 0 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | -1 | +1.0 | -0.6 | |||||||
John Henson | J. Henson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -3 | -1.4 | +1.9 | |||||||
Theo Pinson | T. Pinson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SAME | -1.3 | +0.1 | |||||||
Norvel Pelle | N. Pelle | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -2 | -2.3 | -0.2 | |||||||
Jared Harper | J. Harper | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SAME | -0.6 | -0.9 | |||||||
Taj Gibson | T. Gibson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SAME | -2.0 | +1.6 | |||||||
Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -2.5 | -0.1 | |||||||||||||
Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 97.4 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 97.4 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 103-106 | ||||||||||||||
Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 34 | ||||||||||||||
Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1441 | ||||||||||||||
Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1511). The weight given to Elo — 23% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1511). The weight given to Elo — 23% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1457 | ||||||||||||||
Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1457 |
Comments