The Dallas Mavericks have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

	Expected minutes per game									PLAYER RATING		Exp. min. per game		PLAYER RATING
Player	PG	SG	SF	PF	C	TOTAL	vs. full strength		vs. full strength		Off. +/-	Def. +/-
Luka Doncic	L. Doncic	19	10	11	0	0	40	SAME			+8.0	+0.5
Dorian Finney-Smith*	D. Finney-Smith*	0	0	26	11	0	37	SAME			+0.7	+1.0
Kristaps Porzingis	K. Porzingis	0	0	0	17	15	32	SAME			+0.8	-0.5
Tim Hardaway Jr.*	T. Hardaway Jr.*	0	31	4	0	0	35	SAME			+1.4	-0.3
Maxi Kleber*	M. Kleber*	0	0	0	13	21	34	SAME			-1.6	+0.7
Jalen Brunson	J. Brunson	23	0	0	0	0	23	SAME			+1.4	-0.2
Josh Richardson	J. Richardson	6	1	3	0	0	10	SAME			-0.1	+0.1
Willie Cauley-Stein	W. Cauley-Stein	0	0	0	1	5	6	SAME			-2.5	+2.7
Dwight Powell	D. Powell	0	0	0	3	4	7	SAME			-0.5	+1.1
Nicolo Melli	N. Melli	0	0	0	3	3	6	SAME			-1.4	0.0
JJ Redick	J. Redick	0	6	4	0	0	10	SAME			+0.4	-2.2
Trey Burke	T. Burke	0	0	0	0	0	0	SAME			+1.3	-1.0
Josh Green	J. Green	0	0	0	0	0	0	SAME			-2.6	-0.7
Boban Marjanovic	B. Marjanovic	0	0	0	0	0	0	SAME			-0.2	+0.5
Tyrell Terry	T. Terry	0	0	0	0	0	0	SAME			-1.5	-1.6
Tyler Bey	T. Bey	0	0	0	0	0	0	SAME			-1.8	+0.4
Nate Hinton	N. Hinton	0	0	0	0	0	0	SAME			-1.4	0.0
Rotation ratings	First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.									Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.			+7.3	+1.2
Adj. rotation ratings	A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.									Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.			+6.6	+0.5
Points per game	We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.5 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.									Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.5 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.			113-106
Rotation wins	We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.									Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.			57
Rotation rating	Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.									Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.			1669
Team rating	We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1553). The weight given to Elo — 31% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.									Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1553). The weight given to Elo — 31% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.			1633
Playoff rating	Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.									Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.			1636

Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

	Expected minutes per game							PLAYER RATING		Exp. min. per game		PLAYER RATING
Player	PG	SG	SF	PF	C	TOTAL		Off. +/-	Def. +/-
Luka Doncic	L. Doncic	19	10	11	0	0	40		+8.0	+0.5
Dorian Finney-Smith*	D. Finney-Smith*	0	0	26	11	0	37		+0.7	+1.0
Kristaps Porzingis	K. Porzingis	0	0	0	17	15	32		+0.8	-0.5
Tim Hardaway Jr.*	T. Hardaway Jr.*	0	31	4	0	0	35		+1.4	-0.3
Maxi Kleber*	M. Kleber*	0	0	0	13	21	34		-1.6	+0.7
Jalen Brunson	J. Brunson	23	0	0	0	0	23		+1.4	-0.2
Josh Richardson	J. Richardson	6	1	3	0	0	10		-0.1	+0.1
Willie Cauley-Stein	W. Cauley-Stein	0	0	0	1	5	6		-2.5	+2.7
Dwight Powell	D. Powell	0	0	0	3	4	7		-0.5	+1.1
Nicolo Melli	N. Melli	0	0	0	3	3	6		-1.4	0.0
JJ Redick	J. Redick	0	6	4	0	0	10		+0.4	-2.2
Trey Burke	T. Burke	0	0	0	0	0	0		+1.3	-1.0
Josh Green	J. Green	0	0	0	0	0	0		-2.6	-0.7
Boban Marjanovic	B. Marjanovic	0	0	0	0	0	0		-0.2	+0.5
Tyrell Terry	T. Terry	0	0	0	0	0	0		-1.5	-1.6
Tyler Bey	T. Bey	0	0	0	0	0	0		-1.8	+0.4
Nate Hinton	N. Hinton	0	0	0	0	0	0		-1.4	0.0
Rotation ratings	First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.							Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.			+7.3	+1.2
Adj. rotation ratings	A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.							Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.			+6.6	+0.5
Points per game	We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.5 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.							Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.5 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.			113-106
Rotation wins	We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.							Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.			57
Rotation rating	Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.							Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.			1669
Team rating	We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1553). The weight given to Elo — 31% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.							Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1553). The weight given to Elo — 31% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.			1633
Playoff rating	Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.							Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.			1636

Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

At full strength vs. with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation

Current rotation

Current

2020-21 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

The Dallas Mavericks have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

Team rating

Comments

2020-21 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

The Dallas Mavericks have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

Team rating

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Comments