The Dallas Mavericks have a 92% chance of making the playoffs and a 4% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

	Expected minutes per game									PLAYER RATING		Exp. min. per game		PLAYER RATING
Player	PG	SG	SF	PF	C	TOTAL	vs. full strength (today)		vs. full strength (today)		Off. +/-	Def. +/-
Luka Doncic	L. Doncic	18	4	16	0	0	38	+2			+6.6	-0.1
Kristaps Porzingis*	K. Porzingis*	0	0	0	22	5	27	-5			+1.2	+1.2
Tim Hardaway Jr.	T. Hardaway Jr.	0	18	14	0	0	32	+2			+1.9	-0.7
Josh Richardson	J. Richardson	0	0	0	0	0	0	-32			0.0	+1.1
Dorian Finney-Smith	D. Finney-Smith	0	0	0	0	0	0	-20			-0.9	+0.8
Maxi Kleber	M. Kleber	0	0	0	0	0	0	-19			-1.3	+1.0
Jalen Brunson	J. Brunson	0	0	0	0	0	0	-13			+1.2	-0.4
Willie Cauley-Stein	W. Cauley-Stein	0	0	0	0	23	23	+9			-2.6	+2.4
Trey Burke	T. Burke	21	0	0	0	0	21	+8			+2.1	-1.0
Josh Green	J. Green	0	16	0	0	0	16	+4			-2.0	-0.7
Dwight Powell	D. Powell	0	0	0	0	0	0	-14			-1.0	+0.7
James Johnson	J. Johnson	0	0	0	13	6	19	+17			-1.7	-0.3
Wes Iwundu	W. Iwundu	0	0	18	2	0	20	+18			-1.8	-0.1
Boban Marjanovic	B. Marjanovic	0	0	0	0	14	14	+13			-0.1	+0.7
Tyrell Terry	T. Terry	9	0	0	0	0	9	+9			-1.5	-1.6
Tyler Bey	T. Bey	0	0	0	11	0	11	+11			-1.9	+0.4
Nate Hinton	N. Hinton	0	10	0	0	0	10	+10			-1.4	0.0
Rotation ratings	First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.									Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.			+3.0	+0.4
Adj. rotation ratings	A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.									Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.			+3.0	+0.3
Points per game	We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.1 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.									Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.1 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.			114-110
Rotation wins	We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.									Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.			50
Rotation rating	Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.									Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.			1588
Team rating	We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1583). The weight given to Elo — 10% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.									Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1583). The weight given to Elo — 10% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.			1588

Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

	Expected minutes per game							PLAYER RATING				PLAYER RATING
Player	PG	SG	SF	PF	C	TOTAL	Exp. min. per game		Off. +/-	Def. +/-
Luka Doncic	L. Doncic	23	4	9	0	0	36			+6.6	-0.1
Kristaps Porzingis	K. Porzingis	0	0	0	23	9	32			+1.2	+1.2
Tim Hardaway Jr.	T. Hardaway Jr.	0	10	20	0	0	30			+1.9	-0.7
Josh Richardson	J. Richardson	0	21	11	0	0	32			0.0	+1.1
Dorian Finney-Smith	D. Finney-Smith	0	0	7	13	0	20			-0.9	+0.8
Maxi Kleber	M. Kleber	0	0	0	9	10	19			-1.3	+1.0
Jalen Brunson	J. Brunson	12	1	0	0	0	13			+1.2	-0.4
Willie Cauley-Stein	W. Cauley-Stein	0	0	0	0	14	14			-2.6	+2.4
Trey Burke	T. Burke	13	0	0	0	0	13			+2.1	-1.0
Josh Green	J. Green	0	12	0	0	0	12			-2.0	-0.7
Dwight Powell	D. Powell	0	0	0	0	14	14			-1.0	+0.7
James Johnson	J. Johnson	0	0	0	2	0	2			-1.7	-0.3
Wes Iwundu	W. Iwundu	0	0	1	1	0	2			-1.8	-0.1
Boban Marjanovic	B. Marjanovic	0	0	0	0	1	1			-0.1	+0.7
Tyrell Terry	T. Terry	0	0	0	0	0	0			-1.5	-1.6
Tyler Bey	T. Bey	0	0	0	0	0	0			-1.9	+0.4
Nate Hinton	N. Hinton	0	0	0	0	0	0			-1.4	0.0
Rotation ratings	First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.							Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.			+4.2	+1.7
Points per game	We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.							Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.			115-109
Rotation wins	We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.							Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.			56
Rotation rating	Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.							Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.			1654
Team rating	We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1583). The weight given to Elo — 28% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.							Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1583). The weight given to Elo — 28% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.			1634

Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

	Expected minutes per game									PLAYER RATING		Exp. min. per game		PLAYER RATING
Player	PG	SG	SF	PF	C	TOTAL	vs. full strength (today)		vs. full strength (today)		Off. +/-	Def. +/-
Luka Doncic	L. Doncic	23	9	9	0	0	41	+5			+6.5	-0.1
Kristaps Porzingis	K. Porzingis	0	0	0	18	15	33	+1			+1.2	+1.2
Tim Hardaway Jr.	T. Hardaway Jr.	0	18	13	0	0	31	+1			+1.4	-0.9
Josh Richardson	J. Richardson	7	9	16	0	0	32	SAME			+0.1	+1.1
Dorian Finney-Smith	D. Finney-Smith	0	0	10	18	0	28	+8			-0.9	+0.8
Maxi Kleber	M. Kleber	0	0	0	6	16	22	+3			-1.4	+1.0
Jalen Brunson	J. Brunson	8	2	0	0	0	10	-3			+1.2	-0.4
Willie Cauley-Stein	W. Cauley-Stein	0	0	0	3	9	12	-2			-2.6	+2.5
Trey Burke	T. Burke	10	0	0	0	0	10	-3			+2.2	-0.9
Josh Green	J. Green	0	10	0	0	0	10	-2			-2.0	-0.7
Dwight Powell	D. Powell	0	0	0	3	8	11	-3			-1.0	+0.7
James Johnson	J. Johnson	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2			-1.7	-0.3
Wes Iwundu	W. Iwundu	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2			-1.8	-0.1
Boban Marjanovic	B. Marjanovic	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1			-0.1	+0.7
Tyrell Terry	T. Terry	0	0	0	0	0	0	SAME			-1.5	-1.6
Tyler Bey	T. Bey	0	0	0	0	0	0	SAME			-1.8	+0.4
Nate Hinton	N. Hinton	0	0	0	0	0	0	SAME			-1.4	0.0
Rotation ratings	First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.									Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.			+5.0	+2.0
Points per game	We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.									Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.			112-105
Rotation wins	We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.									Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.			57
Rotation rating	Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.									Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.			1669
Team rating	We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1583). The weight given to Elo — 27% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.									Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1583). The weight given to Elo — 27% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.			1646
Playoff rating	Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.									Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.			1641

Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

At full strength vs. with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation

Current rotation

Current

2020-21 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

The Dallas Mavericks have a 92% chance of making the playoffs and a 4% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

Team rating

Comments

2020-21 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

The Dallas Mavericks have a 92% chance of making the playoffs and a 4% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

Team rating

Related Stories

Comments