2021-22 NBA Player Projections
Our projection system identifies similar players throughout NBA history and uses them to develop a probabilistic forecast of what a current NBA player’s future might look like.
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Andrew Wiggins
- Warriors
- Golden State Warriors
- Small Forward
- 26 years old
![](/2022-nba-player-projections/images/missing2.png?v=08f640d6)
Weighted average of past three seasons
Bad
Avg.
Good
Percentile | |||
---|---|---|---|
Vitals | 50th | ||
Height | 6'7" | ||
Weight | 202 | ||
Draft position | 1 |
Scoring | |||
---|---|---|---|
True shooting % | 55% | ||
Free throw % | 71% | ||
Usage % | 24% |
Tendencies | |||
---|---|---|---|
3 pt. frequency | 34% | ||
FT frequency | 24% |
Passing/ball handling | |||
---|---|---|---|
Assist % | 13% | ||
Turnover % | 10% |
Defense/rebounding | |||
---|---|---|---|
Rebound % | 8% | ||
Block % | 2.5% | ||
Steal % | 1.3% | ||
Defensive +/- | -0.3 |
Wins above replacement projection
Category: AVERAGE STARTER
5-yr market value: $40.0m
![](/2022-nba-player-projections/images/key2.png?v=cb2f09e6)
Confidence interval
Projection
Performance of the 10 most comparable players
1
Glenn Robinson
Year: 2000
Similarity: 55
2
Jeff Green
Year: 2014
Similarity: 53
3
Chuck Person
Year: 1991
Similarity: 52
4
Harrison Barnes
Year: 2019
Similarity: 50
5
Wayman Tisdale
Year: 1991
Similarity: 50
6
Ken Norman
Year: 1992
Similarity: 50
7
Isaiah Rider
Year: 1998
Similarity: 49
8
James Worthy
Year: 1988
Similarity: 49
9
Xavier McDaniel
Year: 1990
Similarity: 48
10
Keith Van Horn
Year: 2003
Similarity: 48
Andrew Wiggins
- Warriors
- Golden State Warriors
- Small Forward
- 26 years old
![](/2022-nba-player-projections/images/missing2.png?v=08f640d6)
The fine print
RAPTOR Ratings | 2019 | '20 | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | '26 | '27 | '28 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Offensive +/- | Reg. season | -1.1 | +0.5 | -1.1 | -0.5 | -0.7 | -0.7 | -1.0 | -1.3 | -1.4 | -1.6 |
Playoffs | — | — | — | -0.5 | -0.7 | -0.8 | -1.0 | -1.3 | -1.5 | -1.6 | |
Combined | -1.1 | +0.5 | -1.1 | -0.5 | -0.7 | -0.7 | -1.0 | -1.3 | -1.5 | -1.6 | |
Defensive +/- | Reg. season | -0.9 | -2.1 | +0.5 | +0.1 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.5 | -0.5 |
Playoffs | — | — | — | +0.1 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.5 | -0.6 | |
Combined | -0.9 | -2.1 | +0.5 | +0.1 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.5 | -0.6 | |
Total +/- | Reg. season | -2.0 | -1.5 | -0.6 | -0.4 | -0.8 | -0.9 | -1.2 | -1.6 | -1.9 | -2.1 |
Playoffs | — | — | — | -0.5 | -0.8 | -1.0 | -1.2 | -1.7 | -2.0 | -2.1 | |
Combined | -2.0 | -1.5 | -0.6 | -0.4 | -0.8 | -0.9 | -1.2 | -1.6 | -1.9 | -2.1 |
Per 82 games | 2019 | '20 | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | '26 | '27 | '28 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WAR | Reg. season | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Playoffs | — | — | — | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | |
Combined | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | |
Market value | Reg. season | $4.3m | $5.7m | $10.8m | $11.5m | $9.0m | $8.1m | $6.7m | $4.6m | $3.5m | $2.4m |
Playoffs | — | — | — | $11.6m | $9.0m | $8.0m | $6.5m | $4.5m | $3.3m | $2.3m | |
Combined | $4.3m | $5.7m | $10.8m | $11.5m | $9.0m | $8.0m | $6.6m | $4.6m | $3.4m | $2.4m | |
Minutes played | Reg. season | 2,543 | 2,362 | 2,620 | 2,324 | 2,037 | 1,808 | 1,541 | 1,229 | 973 | 701 |
Playoffs | — | — | — | 2,442 | 2,105 | 1,835 | 1,543 | 1,228 | 972 | 657 | |
Combined | 2,543 | 2,362 | 2,620 | 2,383 | 2,071 | 1,821 | 1,542 | 1,229 | 973 | 679 |
The fine print
Based on a combination of regular-season and playoff performances
Year | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | Total +/- | Mkt. value | Min. played |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2019 | -1.1 | -0.9 | -2.0 | $4.3m | 2,543 |
2020 | +0.5 | -2.1 | -1.5 | $5.7m | 2,362 |
2021 | -1.1 | +0.5 | -0.6 | $10.8m | 2,620 |
2022 | -0.5 | +0.1 | -0.4 | $11.5m | 2,383 |
2023 | -0.7 | -0.1 | -0.8 | $9.0m | 2,071 |
2024 | -0.7 | -0.2 | -0.9 | $8.0m | 1,821 |
2025 | -1.0 | -0.2 | -1.2 | $6.6m | 1,542 |
2026 | -1.3 | -0.3 | -1.6 | $4.6m | 1,229 |
2027 | -1.5 | -0.5 | -1.9 | $3.4m | 973 |
2028 | -1.6 | -0.6 | -2.1 | $2.4m | 679 |
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