2021-22 NBA Player Projections
Our projection system identifies similar players throughout NBA history and uses them to develop a probabilistic forecast of what a current NBA player’s future might look like.
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Jordan Poole
- Warriors
- Golden State Warriors
- Shooting Guard
- 22 years old
![](/2022-nba-player-projections/images/missing2.png?v=08f640d6)
Weighted average of past three seasons
Bad
Avg.
Good
Percentile | |||
---|---|---|---|
Vitals | 50th | ||
Height | 6'4" | ||
Weight | 194 | ||
Draft position | 28 |
Scoring | |||
---|---|---|---|
True shooting % | 55% | ||
Free throw % | 86% | ||
Usage % | 24% |
Tendencies | |||
---|---|---|---|
3 pt. frequency | 57% | ||
FT frequency | 25% |
Passing/ball handling | |||
---|---|---|---|
Assist % | 15% | ||
Turnover % | 9% |
Defense/rebounding | |||
---|---|---|---|
Rebound % | 5% | ||
Block % | 0.8% | ||
Steal % | 1.2% | ||
Defensive +/- | -2.8 |
Wins above replacement projection
Category: PROJECT
5-yr market value: $27.1m
![](/2022-nba-player-projections/images/key2.png?v=cb2f09e6)
Confidence interval
Projection
Performance of the 10 most comparable players
1
John Jenkins
Year: 2014
Similarity: 55
2
Harold Miner
Year: 1994
Similarity: 52
3
Malik Monk
Year: 2021
Similarity: 52
4
Klay Thompson
Year: 2013
Similarity: 51
5
Jerryd Bayless
Year: 2011
Similarity: 51
6
Rashad McCants
Year: 2007
Similarity: 48
7
Jamal Crawford
Year: 2003
Similarity: 46
8
Bracey Wright
Year: 2007
Similarity: 45
9
Luke Kennard
Year: 2019
Similarity: 45
10
R. Hamilton
Year: 2001
Similarity: 45
Jordan Poole
- Warriors
- Golden State Warriors
- Shooting Guard
- 22 years old
![](/2022-nba-player-projections/images/missing2.png?v=08f640d6)
The fine print
RAPTOR Ratings | 2019 | '20 | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | '26 | '27 | '28 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Offensive +/- | Reg. season | — | -3.0 | +0.4 | +0.2 | +0.6 | +0.8 | +1.2 | +1.1 | +1.0 | +1.3 |
Playoffs | — | — | — | +0.2 | +0.7 | +0.9 | +1.3 | +1.1 | +1.0 | +1.3 | |
Combined | — | -3.0 | +0.4 | +0.2 | +0.6 | +0.9 | +1.3 | +1.1 | +1.0 | +1.3 | |
Defensive +/- | Reg. season | — | -1.9 | -3.0 | -1.9 | -1.9 | -1.9 | -1.9 | -1.8 | -1.8 | -2.0 |
Playoffs | — | — | — | -1.9 | -1.9 | -1.9 | -1.9 | -1.8 | -1.8 | -2.0 | |
Combined | — | -1.9 | -3.0 | -1.9 | -1.9 | -1.9 | -1.9 | -1.8 | -1.8 | -2.0 | |
Total +/- | Reg. season | — | -4.9 | -2.6 | -1.8 | -1.2 | -1.1 | -0.6 | -0.7 | -0.9 | -0.7 |
Playoffs | — | — | — | -1.7 | -1.2 | -1.0 | -0.6 | -0.7 | -0.9 | -0.7 | |
Combined | — | -4.9 | -2.6 | -1.8 | -1.2 | -1.1 | -0.6 | -0.7 | -0.9 | -0.7 |
Per 82 games | 2019 | '20 | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | '26 | '27 | '28 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WAR | Reg. season | — | -1.7 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
Playoffs | — | — | — | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | |
Combined | — | -1.7 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.9 | |
Market value | Reg. season | — | -$3.3m | $1.9m | $3.8m | $4.8m | $5.6m | $6.4m | $6.4m | $5.9m | $5.9m |
Playoffs | — | — | — | $3.5m | $4.5m | $5.3m | $6.2m | $6.3m | $5.8m | $5.7m | |
Combined | — | -$3.3m | $1.9m | $3.7m | $4.7m | $5.4m | $6.3m | $6.3m | $5.8m | $5.8m | |
Minutes played | Reg. season | — | 1,607 | 1,095 | 1,275 | 1,224 | 1,234 | 1,119 | 1,100 | 1,018 | 909 |
Playoffs | — | — | — | 1,052 | 1,088 | 1,163 | 1,081 | 1,093 | 1,008 | 881 | |
Combined | — | 1,607 | 1,095 | 1,163 | 1,156 | 1,198 | 1,100 | 1,096 | 1,013 | 895 |
The fine print
Based on a combination of regular-season and playoff performances
Year | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | Total +/- | Mkt. value | Min. played |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2019 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
2020 | -3.0 | -1.9 | -4.9 | -$3.3m | 1,607 |
2021 | +0.4 | -3.0 | -2.6 | $1.9m | 1,095 |
2022 | +0.2 | -1.9 | -1.8 | $3.7m | 1,163 |
2023 | +0.6 | -1.9 | -1.2 | $4.7m | 1,156 |
2024 | +0.9 | -1.9 | -1.1 | $5.4m | 1,198 |
2025 | +1.3 | -1.9 | -0.6 | $6.3m | 1,100 |
2026 | +1.1 | -1.8 | -0.7 | $6.3m | 1,096 |
2027 | +1.0 | -1.8 | -0.9 | $5.8m | 1,013 |
2028 | +1.3 | -2.0 | -0.7 | $5.8m | 895 |
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