2021-22 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
More NBA:Our preseason player projectionsRAPTOR player ratingsBuild your own team
The Milwaukee Bucks have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength | vs. full strength | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | G. Antetokounmpo | 37 | SAME | +4.7 | +2.4 | ||||||||
| Khris Middleton | K. Middleton | 34 | SAME | +2.1 | -0.2 | ||||||||
| Jrue Holiday | J. Holiday | 37 | SAME | +3.1 | +1.3 | ||||||||
| Brook Lopez | B. Lopez | 25 | SAME | -1.6 | +3.0 | ||||||||
| Wesley Matthews* | W. Matthews* | 28 | SAME | -1.8 | +1.9 | ||||||||
| Grayson Allen | G. Allen | 22 | SAME | +0.3 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Bobby Portis | B. Portis | 26 | SAME | +0.4 | +0.7 | ||||||||
| Pat Connaughton | P. Connaughton | 19 | SAME | +0.4 | +0.4 | ||||||||
| George Hill | G. Hill | 6 | SAME | -0.6 | +1.3 | ||||||||
| Jevon Carter | J. Carter | 6 | SAME | -0.5 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Serge Ibaka | S. Ibaka | 0 | SAME | -1.8 | +0.5 | ||||||||
| Luca Vildoza | L. Vildoza | 0 | SAME | -2.1 | -0.5 | ||||||||
| Jordan Nwora | J. Nwora | 0 | SAME | -2.0 | -1.7 | ||||||||
| Thanasis Antetokounmpo | T. Antetokounmpo | 0 | SAME | -2.1 | +0.2 | ||||||||
| Rayjon Tucker | R. Tucker | 0 | SAME | -0.5 | -0.2 | ||||||||
| Lindell Wigginton | L. Wigginton | 0 | SAME | -2.3 | -1.1 | ||||||||
| Sandro Mamukelashvili | S. Mamukelashvili | 0 | SAME | -2.1 | -3.1 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +5.5 | +5.3 | |||||||||
| Adj. rotation ratings | A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | +5.2 | +5.1 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 100 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 100 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 114-103 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 64 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1750 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1611). The weight given to Elo — 37% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1611). The weight given to Elo — 37% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1697 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1711 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | G. Antetokounmpo | 37 | +4.7 | +2.4 | |||||
| Khris Middleton | K. Middleton | 34 | +2.1 | -0.2 | |||||
| Jrue Holiday | J. Holiday | 37 | +3.1 | +1.3 | |||||
| Brook Lopez | B. Lopez | 25 | -1.6 | +3.0 | |||||
| Wesley Matthews* | W. Matthews* | 28 | -1.8 | +1.9 | |||||
| Grayson Allen | G. Allen | 22 | +0.3 | -0.4 | |||||
| Bobby Portis | B. Portis | 26 | +0.4 | +0.7 | |||||
| Pat Connaughton | P. Connaughton | 19 | +0.4 | +0.4 | |||||
| George Hill | G. Hill | 6 | -0.6 | +1.3 | |||||
| Jevon Carter | J. Carter | 6 | -0.5 | -0.9 | |||||
| Serge Ibaka | S. Ibaka | 0 | -1.8 | +0.5 | |||||
| Luca Vildoza | L. Vildoza | 0 | -2.1 | -0.5 | |||||
| Jordan Nwora | J. Nwora | 0 | -2.0 | -1.7 | |||||
| Thanasis Antetokounmpo | T. Antetokounmpo | 0 | -2.1 | +0.2 | |||||
| Rayjon Tucker | R. Tucker | 0 | -0.5 | -0.2 | |||||
| Lindell Wigginton | L. Wigginton | 0 | -2.3 | -1.1 | |||||
| Sandro Mamukelashvili | S. Mamukelashvili | 0 | -2.1 | -3.1 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +5.5 | +5.3 | |||||
| Adj. rotation ratings | A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | +5.2 | +5.1 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 100 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 100 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 114-103 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 64 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1750 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1611). The weight given to Elo — 37% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1611). The weight given to Elo — 37% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1697 | ||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1711 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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