2021-22 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
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The Chicago Bulls have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength | vs. full strength | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Zach LaVine | Z. LaVine | 38 | SAME | +2.7 | -2.0 | ||||||||
| DeMar DeRozan | D. DeRozan | 38 | SAME | +2.1 | -2.5 | ||||||||
| Nikola Vucevic | N. Vucevic | 37 | SAME | -0.8 | +1.5 | ||||||||
| Lonzo Ball | L. Ball | 0 | -35 | +0.9 | +1.8 | ||||||||
| Alex Caruso | A. Caruso | 26 | +3 | -0.5 | +3.7 | ||||||||
| Patrick Williams | P. Williams | 29 | SAME | -1.6 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Coby White | C. White | 17 | +9 | +0.3 | -2.0 | ||||||||
| Ayo Dosunmu | A. Dosunmu | 16 | +8 | -1.3 | -1.8 | ||||||||
| Javonte Green | J. Green | 8 | +4 | +0.1 | +0.6 | ||||||||
| Derrick Jones Jr. | D. Jones Jr. | 8 | +4 | -0.7 | +0.7 | ||||||||
| Tristan Thompson | T. Thompson | 8 | +2 | -1.3 | -0.2 | ||||||||
| Troy Brown Jr. | T. Brown Jr. | 8 | +4 | -1.0 | -0.5 | ||||||||
| Tony Bradley | T. Bradley | 7 | +1 | -1.4 | +1.8 | ||||||||
| Matt Thomas | M. Thomas | 0 | SAME | -0.6 | -1.4 | ||||||||
| Marko Simonovic | M. Simonovic | 0 | SAME | -3.9 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Tyler Cook | T. Cook | 0 | SAME | -3.5 | -2.2 | ||||||||
| Malcolm Hill | M. Hill | 0 | SAME | -1.9 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +0.8 | -1.5 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.1 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.1 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 107-108 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 39 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1488 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1428). The weight given to Elo — 31% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1428). The weight given to Elo — 31% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1469 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1474 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||
| Zach LaVine | Z. LaVine | 38 | +2.7 | -2.0 | |||||
| DeMar DeRozan | D. DeRozan | 38 | +2.1 | -2.5 | |||||
| Nikola Vucevic | N. Vucevic | 37 | -0.8 | +1.5 | |||||
| Lonzo Ball | L. Ball | 35 | +0.9 | +1.8 | |||||
| Alex Caruso | A. Caruso | 23 | -0.5 | +3.7 | |||||
| Patrick Williams | P. Williams | 29 | -1.6 | -0.6 | |||||
| Coby White | C. White | 8 | +0.3 | -2.0 | |||||
| Ayo Dosunmu | A. Dosunmu | 8 | -1.3 | -1.8 | |||||
| Javonte Green | J. Green | 4 | +0.1 | +0.6 | |||||
| Derrick Jones Jr. | D. Jones Jr. | 4 | -0.7 | +0.7 | |||||
| Tristan Thompson | T. Thompson | 6 | -1.3 | -0.2 | |||||
| Troy Brown Jr. | T. Brown Jr. | 4 | -1.0 | -0.5 | |||||
| Tony Bradley | T. Bradley | 6 | -1.4 | +1.8 | |||||
| Matt Thomas | M. Thomas | 0 | -0.6 | -1.4 | |||||
| Marko Simonovic | M. Simonovic | 0 | -3.9 | -0.9 | |||||
| Tyler Cook | T. Cook | 0 | -3.5 | -2.2 | |||||
| Malcolm Hill | M. Hill | 0 | -1.9 | -0.9 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +1.8 | 0.0 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.7 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.7 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 109-107 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 45 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1546 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1428). The weight given to Elo — 13% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1428). The weight given to Elo — 13% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1531 | ||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1535 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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