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UPDATED May 17, 2022, at 12:34 AM

2021-22 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:Our preseason player projectionsRAPTOR player ratingsBuild your own team

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The Boston Celtics have a 42% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePROJECTED PLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePROJ. PLAYER RATING
PlayerTOTALvs. full strengthvs. full strengthOff. +/-Def. +/-
Jayson TatumJ. Tatum42SAME
+4.0
+0.7
Jaylen Brown*J. Brown*39SAME
+2.1
+0.2
Marcus SmartM. Smart19-17
+1.3
+1.8
Robert Williams IIIR. Williams III26SAME
+0.1
+2.0
Al Horford*A. Horford*37SAME
+0.9
+2.6
Grant WilliamsG. Williams16SAME
-1.4
+0.3
Derrick WhiteD. White30+5
+0.6
+3.4
Payton PritchardP. Pritchard16+2
+1.0
-0.7
Daniel TheisD. Theis5SAME
-2.3
+1.4
Aaron NesmithA. Nesmith8+8
-1.3
-0.1
Sam HauserS. Hauser2+2
-0.1
-0.6
Luke KornetL. Kornet0SAME
-2.6
+0.9
Juwan MorganJ. Morgan0SAME
-2.4
-1.5
Brodric ThomasB. Thomas0SAME
-1.1
+0.1
Malik FittsM. Fitts0SAME
-1.7
-0.3
Matt RyanM. Ryan0SAME
-2.2
-0.4
Nik StauskasN. Stauskas0SAME
-0.1
-1.2
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+5.7
+6.1
Adj. rotation ratingsA flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
Adj. rotation ratings
A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
+5.4
+5.8
Points per gameWe combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.4 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.
Points per game
We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.4 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.
112-101
Rotation winsWe use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Rotation wins
We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
65
Rotation ratingThen we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
Rotation rating
Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1771
Team ratingWe blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1743). The weight given to Elo — 27% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.
Team rating
We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1743). The weight given to Elo — 27% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.
1764
Playoff ratingFinally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.
Playoff rating
Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.
1776
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
PROJECTED PLAYER RATINGPROJ. PLAYER RATING
PlayerExpected minutes per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Jayson TatumJ. Tatum42
+4.0
+0.7
Jaylen Brown*J. Brown*39
+2.1
+0.2
Marcus SmartM. Smart36
+1.3
+1.8
Robert Williams IIIR. Williams III26
+0.1
+2.0
Al Horford*A. Horford*37
+0.9
+2.6
Grant WilliamsG. Williams16
-1.4
+0.3
Derrick WhiteD. White25
+0.6
+3.4
Payton PritchardP. Pritchard14
+1.0
-0.7
Daniel TheisD. Theis5
-2.3
+1.4
Aaron NesmithA. Nesmith0
-1.3
-0.1
Sam HauserS. Hauser0
-0.1
-0.6
Luke KornetL. Kornet0
-2.6
+0.9
Juwan MorganJ. Morgan0
-2.4
-1.5
Brodric ThomasB. Thomas0
-1.1
+0.1
Malik FittsM. Fitts0
-1.7
-0.3
Matt RyanM. Ryan0
-2.2
-0.4
Nik StauskasN. Stauskas0
-0.1
-1.2
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+6.2
+6.4
Adj. rotation ratingsA flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
Adj. rotation ratings
A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
+5.9
+6.1
Points per gameWe combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.
Points per game
We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.
113-101
Rotation winsWe use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Rotation wins
We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
67
Rotation ratingThen we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
Rotation rating
Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1791
Team ratingWe blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1743). The weight given to Elo — 31% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.
Team rating
We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1743). The weight given to Elo — 31% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.
1777
Playoff ratingFinally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.
Playoff rating
Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.
1789
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

At full strength vs. with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent