2021-22 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
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The Boston Celtics have an 87% chance of making the playoffs and a 6% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Jayson Tatum | J. Tatum | 37 | SAME | +4.4 | -0.2 | ||||||||
| Jaylen Brown | J. Brown | 35 | SAME | +2.1 | +0.4 | ||||||||
| Dennis Schroder | D. Schroder | 29 | SAME | -0.3 | +0.5 | ||||||||
| Marcus Smart | M. Smart | 29 | SAME | +1.4 | +0.9 | ||||||||
| Al Horford | A. Horford | 22 | SAME | -0.9 | +1.9 | ||||||||
| Josh Richardson | J. Richardson | 15 | SAME | -0.1 | -0.2 | ||||||||
| Robert Williams III | R. Williams III | 19 | SAME | -0.4 | +1.0 | ||||||||
| Payton Pritchard | P. Pritchard | 11 | SAME | +0.3 | -1.0 | ||||||||
| Romeo Langford | R. Langford | 11 | SAME | -0.9 | +0.8 | ||||||||
| Grant Williams | G. Williams | 14 | SAME | -2.1 | +0.5 | ||||||||
| Aaron Nesmith | A. Nesmith | 14 | SAME | -0.6 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Juancho Hernangomez | J. Hernangomez | 2 | SAME | -0.8 | -1.1 | ||||||||
| Enes Kanter | E. Kanter | 2 | SAME | +0.5 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Bruno Fernando | B. Fernando | 0 | SAME | -3.8 | -1.0 | ||||||||
| Sam Hauser | S. Hauser | 0 | SAME | -0.5 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +3.2 | +1.7 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.2 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.2 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 114-109 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 54 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1630 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1500). The weight given to Elo — 16% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1500). The weight given to Elo — 16% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1610 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PLAYER RATING | PLAYER RATING | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Exp. min. per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||
| Jayson Tatum | J. Tatum | 37 | +4.4 | -0.2 | ||||
| Jaylen Brown | J. Brown | 35 | +2.1 | +0.4 | ||||
| Dennis Schroder | D. Schroder | 29 | -0.3 | +0.5 | ||||
| Marcus Smart | M. Smart | 29 | +1.4 | +0.9 | ||||
| Al Horford | A. Horford | 22 | -0.9 | +1.9 | ||||
| Josh Richardson | J. Richardson | 15 | -0.1 | -0.2 | ||||
| Robert Williams III | R. Williams III | 19 | -0.4 | +1.0 | ||||
| Payton Pritchard | P. Pritchard | 11 | +0.3 | -1.0 | ||||
| Romeo Langford | R. Langford | 11 | -0.9 | +0.8 | ||||
| Grant Williams | G. Williams | 14 | -2.1 | +0.5 | ||||
| Aaron Nesmith | A. Nesmith | 14 | -0.6 | -0.4 | ||||
| Juancho Hernangomez | J. Hernangomez | 2 | -0.8 | -1.1 | ||||
| Enes Kanter | E. Kanter | 2 | +0.5 | -0.9 | ||||
| Bruno Fernando | B. Fernando | 0 | -3.8 | -1.0 | ||||
| Sam Hauser | S. Hauser | 0 | -0.5 | -0.6 | ||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +3.2 | +1.7 | ||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.2 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.2 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 114-109 | |||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 54 | |||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1630 | |||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1500). The weight given to Elo — 16% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1500). The weight given to Elo — 16% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1610 | |||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| Expected minutes per game | PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Jayson Tatum | J. Tatum | 40 | +3 | +4.4 | -0.2 | ||||||||
| Jaylen Brown | J. Brown | 36 | +1 | +2.2 | +0.5 | ||||||||
| Dennis Schroder | D. Schroder | 30 | +1 | -0.3 | +0.6 | ||||||||
| Marcus Smart | M. Smart | 33 | +4 | +1.5 | +0.9 | ||||||||
| Al Horford | A. Horford | 23 | +1 | -0.8 | +2.0 | ||||||||
| Josh Richardson | J. Richardson | 17 | +2 | -0.2 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| Robert Williams III | R. Williams III | 18 | -1 | -0.3 | +1.0 | ||||||||
| Payton Pritchard | P. Pritchard | 7 | -4 | +0.3 | -1.0 | ||||||||
| Romeo Langford | R. Langford | 7 | -4 | -0.8 | +0.8 | ||||||||
| Grant Williams | G. Williams | 16 | +2 | -1.9 | +0.5 | ||||||||
| Aaron Nesmith | A. Nesmith | 13 | -1 | -0.6 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Juancho Hernangomez | J. Hernangomez | 0 | -2 | -0.8 | -1.1 | ||||||||
| Enes Kanter | E. Kanter | 0 | -2 | +0.3 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Bruno Fernando | B. Fernando | 0 | SAME | -3.6 | -1.0 | ||||||||
| Sam Hauser | S. Hauser | 0 | SAME | -0.4 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +4.3 | +2.2 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 111-105 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 56 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1657 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1500). The weight given to Elo — 1% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1500). The weight given to Elo — 1% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1655 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1667 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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