2021-22 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
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The Boston Celtics have a 42% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength | vs. full strength | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Jayson Tatum | J. Tatum | 42 | SAME | +4.0 | +0.7 | ||||||||
| Jaylen Brown* | J. Brown* | 39 | SAME | +2.1 | +0.2 | ||||||||
| Marcus Smart | M. Smart | 19 | -17 | +1.3 | +1.8 | ||||||||
| Robert Williams III | R. Williams III | 26 | SAME | +0.1 | +2.0 | ||||||||
| Al Horford* | A. Horford* | 37 | SAME | +0.9 | +2.6 | ||||||||
| Grant Williams | G. Williams | 16 | SAME | -1.4 | +0.3 | ||||||||
| Derrick White | D. White | 30 | +5 | +0.6 | +3.4 | ||||||||
| Payton Pritchard | P. Pritchard | 16 | +2 | +1.0 | -0.7 | ||||||||
| Daniel Theis | D. Theis | 5 | SAME | -2.3 | +1.4 | ||||||||
| Aaron Nesmith | A. Nesmith | 8 | +8 | -1.3 | -0.1 | ||||||||
| Sam Hauser | S. Hauser | 2 | +2 | -0.1 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Luke Kornet | L. Kornet | 0 | SAME | -2.6 | +0.9 | ||||||||
| Juwan Morgan | J. Morgan | 0 | SAME | -2.4 | -1.5 | ||||||||
| Brodric Thomas | B. Thomas | 0 | SAME | -1.1 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Malik Fitts | M. Fitts | 0 | SAME | -1.7 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| Matt Ryan | M. Ryan | 0 | SAME | -2.2 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Nik Stauskas | N. Stauskas | 0 | SAME | -0.1 | -1.2 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +5.7 | +6.1 | |||||||||
| Adj. rotation ratings | A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | +5.4 | +5.8 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.4 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.4 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 112-101 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 65 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1771 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1743). The weight given to Elo — 27% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1743). The weight given to Elo — 27% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1764 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1776 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||
| Jayson Tatum | J. Tatum | 42 | +4.0 | +0.7 | |||||
| Jaylen Brown* | J. Brown* | 39 | +2.1 | +0.2 | |||||
| Marcus Smart | M. Smart | 36 | +1.3 | +1.8 | |||||
| Robert Williams III | R. Williams III | 26 | +0.1 | +2.0 | |||||
| Al Horford* | A. Horford* | 37 | +0.9 | +2.6 | |||||
| Grant Williams | G. Williams | 16 | -1.4 | +0.3 | |||||
| Derrick White | D. White | 25 | +0.6 | +3.4 | |||||
| Payton Pritchard | P. Pritchard | 14 | +1.0 | -0.7 | |||||
| Daniel Theis | D. Theis | 5 | -2.3 | +1.4 | |||||
| Aaron Nesmith | A. Nesmith | 0 | -1.3 | -0.1 | |||||
| Sam Hauser | S. Hauser | 0 | -0.1 | -0.6 | |||||
| Luke Kornet | L. Kornet | 0 | -2.6 | +0.9 | |||||
| Juwan Morgan | J. Morgan | 0 | -2.4 | -1.5 | |||||
| Brodric Thomas | B. Thomas | 0 | -1.1 | +0.1 | |||||
| Malik Fitts | M. Fitts | 0 | -1.7 | -0.3 | |||||
| Matt Ryan | M. Ryan | 0 | -2.2 | -0.4 | |||||
| Nik Stauskas | N. Stauskas | 0 | -0.1 | -1.2 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +6.2 | +6.4 | |||||
| Adj. rotation ratings | A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | +5.9 | +6.1 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 113-101 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 67 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1791 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1743). The weight given to Elo — 31% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1743). The weight given to Elo — 31% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1777 | ||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1789 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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