2021-22 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
More NBA:Our preseason player projectionsRAPTOR player ratingsBuild your own team
The Memphis Grizzlies have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength | vs. full strength | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
Ja Morant | J. Morant | 38 | SAME | +4.0 | -1.9 | ||||||||
Desmond Bane* | D. Bane* | 38 | SAME | +2.1 | +0.2 | ||||||||
Jaren Jackson Jr. | J. Jackson Jr. | 28 | SAME | -0.2 | +1.9 | ||||||||
Dillon Brooks | D. Brooks | 31 | SAME | +0.8 | +1.7 | ||||||||
Brandon Clarke* | B. Clarke* | 30 | SAME | +0.3 | +1.2 | ||||||||
Kyle Anderson | K. Anderson | 22 | SAME | -0.9 | +1.4 | ||||||||
Tyus Jones | T. Jones | 21 | SAME | +1.1 | -0.6 | ||||||||
Xavier Tillman | X. Tillman | 13 | SAME | -1.9 | +1.8 | ||||||||
Ziaire Williams | Z. Williams | 3 | SAME | -1.5 | -0.9 | ||||||||
De'Anthony Melton | D. Melton | 4 | SAME | +0.6 | +1.8 | ||||||||
Steven Adams | S. Adams | 6 | SAME | +0.3 | +1.0 | ||||||||
Killian Tillie | K. Tillie | 6 | SAME | -2.7 | +0.3 | ||||||||
John Konchar | J. Konchar | 0 | SAME | +0.6 | +0.5 | ||||||||
Jarrett Culver | J. Culver | 0 | SAME | -2.2 | +0.3 | ||||||||
Santi Aldama | S. Aldama | 0 | SAME | -2.7 | -1.2 | ||||||||
Yves Pons | Y. Pons | 0 | SAME | -2.9 | -0.7 | ||||||||
Tyrell Terry | T. Terry | 0 | SAME | -0.1 | -1.0 | ||||||||
Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +4.5 | +2.8 | |||||||||
Adj. rotation ratings | A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | +3.6 | +1.9 | |||||||||
Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 111-105 | ||||||||||
Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 54 | ||||||||||
Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1635 | ||||||||||
Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1638). The weight given to Elo — 25% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1638). The weight given to Elo — 25% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1636 | ||||||||||
Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1637 |
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | Expected minutes per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||
Ja Morant | J. Morant | 38 | +4.0 | -1.9 | |||||
Desmond Bane* | D. Bane* | 38 | +2.1 | +0.2 | |||||
Jaren Jackson Jr. | J. Jackson Jr. | 28 | -0.2 | +1.9 | |||||
Dillon Brooks | D. Brooks | 31 | +0.8 | +1.7 | |||||
Brandon Clarke* | B. Clarke* | 30 | +0.3 | +1.2 | |||||
Kyle Anderson | K. Anderson | 22 | -0.9 | +1.4 | |||||
Tyus Jones | T. Jones | 21 | +1.1 | -0.6 | |||||
Xavier Tillman | X. Tillman | 13 | -1.9 | +1.8 | |||||
Ziaire Williams | Z. Williams | 3 | -1.5 | -0.9 | |||||
De'Anthony Melton | D. Melton | 4 | +0.6 | +1.8 | |||||
Steven Adams | S. Adams | 6 | +0.3 | +1.0 | |||||
Killian Tillie | K. Tillie | 6 | -2.7 | +0.3 | |||||
John Konchar | J. Konchar | 0 | +0.6 | +0.5 | |||||
Jarrett Culver | J. Culver | 0 | -2.2 | +0.3 | |||||
Santi Aldama | S. Aldama | 0 | -2.7 | -1.2 | |||||
Yves Pons | Y. Pons | 0 | -2.9 | -0.7 | |||||
Tyrell Terry | T. Terry | 0 | -0.1 | -1.0 | |||||
Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +4.5 | +2.8 | |||||
Adj. rotation ratings | A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | +3.6 | +1.9 | |||||
Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 111-105 | ||||||
Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 54 | ||||||
Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1635 | ||||||
Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1638). The weight given to Elo — 25% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1638). The weight given to Elo — 25% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1636 | ||||||
Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1637 |
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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