2021-22 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
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The Memphis Grizzlies have a 58% chance of making the playoffs and a 0.5% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Ja Morant | J. Morant | 33 | SAME | +2.8 | -2.7 | ||||||||
| Jaren Jackson Jr. | J. Jackson Jr. | 28 | SAME | +0.2 | +1.3 | ||||||||
| Kyle Anderson | K. Anderson | 27 | SAME | -0.6 | +1.8 | ||||||||
| Dillon Brooks | D. Brooks | 0 | -30 | +0.6 | +0.8 | ||||||||
| Steven Adams | S. Adams | 28 | SAME | -0.9 | +1.7 | ||||||||
| Desmond Bane | D. Bane | 25 | +2 | +0.4 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Tyus Jones | T. Jones | 21 | +1 | +0.7 | -0.8 | ||||||||
| De'Anthony Melton | D. Melton | 21 | +7 | +0.9 | +1.4 | ||||||||
| Xavier Tillman | X. Tillman | 19 | +3 | -1.2 | +0.6 | ||||||||
| Brandon Clarke | B. Clarke | 20 | +4 | -1.0 | +0.9 | ||||||||
| Jarrett Culver | J. Culver | 9 | +6 | -1.9 | +0.4 | ||||||||
| John Konchar | J. Konchar | 9 | +7 | +0.7 | +0.3 | ||||||||
| Sam Merrill | S. Merrill | 0 | SAME | +0.4 | -0.7 | ||||||||
| Santi Aldama | S. Aldama | 0 | SAME | -2.7 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Ziaire Williams | Z. Williams | 0 | SAME | -2.6 | -1.3 | ||||||||
| Killian Tillie | K. Tillie | 0 | SAME | -2.5 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Yves Pons | Y. Pons | 0 | SAME | -3.0 | -0.7 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +0.8 | +1.2 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.6 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.6 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 111-109 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 46 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1554 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1541). The weight given to Elo — 22% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1541). The weight given to Elo — 22% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1551 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PLAYER RATING | PLAYER RATING | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Exp. min. per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||
| Ja Morant | J. Morant | 33 | +2.8 | -2.7 | ||||
| Jaren Jackson Jr. | J. Jackson Jr. | 28 | +0.2 | +1.3 | ||||
| Kyle Anderson | K. Anderson | 27 | -0.6 | +1.8 | ||||
| Dillon Brooks | D. Brooks | 30 | +0.6 | +0.8 | ||||
| Steven Adams | S. Adams | 28 | -0.9 | +1.7 | ||||
| Desmond Bane | D. Bane | 23 | +0.4 | -0.9 | ||||
| Tyus Jones | T. Jones | 20 | +0.7 | -0.8 | ||||
| De'Anthony Melton | D. Melton | 14 | +0.9 | +1.4 | ||||
| Xavier Tillman | X. Tillman | 16 | -1.2 | +0.6 | ||||
| Brandon Clarke | B. Clarke | 16 | -1.0 | +0.9 | ||||
| Jarrett Culver | J. Culver | 3 | -1.9 | +0.4 | ||||
| John Konchar | J. Konchar | 2 | +0.7 | +0.3 | ||||
| Sam Merrill | S. Merrill | 0 | +0.4 | -0.7 | ||||
| Santi Aldama | S. Aldama | 0 | -2.7 | -0.9 | ||||
| Ziaire Williams | Z. Williams | 0 | -2.6 | -1.3 | ||||
| Killian Tillie | K. Tillie | 0 | -2.5 | 0.0 | ||||
| Yves Pons | Y. Pons | 0 | -3.0 | -0.7 | ||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +1.2 | +1.3 | ||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.2 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.2 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 112-110 | |||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 48 | |||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1568 | |||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1541). The weight given to Elo — 31% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1541). The weight given to Elo — 31% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1559 | |||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| Expected minutes per game | PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Ja Morant | J. Morant | 37 | +4 | +2.8 | -2.8 | ||||||||
| Jaren Jackson Jr. | J. Jackson Jr. | 30 | +2 | +0.2 | +1.3 | ||||||||
| Kyle Anderson | K. Anderson | 28 | +1 | -0.6 | +1.8 | ||||||||
| Dillon Brooks | D. Brooks | 32 | +2 | +0.8 | +0.8 | ||||||||
| Steven Adams | S. Adams | 29 | +1 | -1.0 | +1.6 | ||||||||
| Desmond Bane | D. Bane | 26 | +3 | +0.4 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Tyus Jones | T. Jones | 19 | -1 | +0.7 | -0.8 | ||||||||
| De'Anthony Melton | D. Melton | 12 | -2 | +0.9 | +1.4 | ||||||||
| Xavier Tillman | X. Tillman | 12 | -4 | -1.3 | +0.6 | ||||||||
| Brandon Clarke | B. Clarke | 13 | -3 | -1.0 | +0.9 | ||||||||
| Jarrett Culver | J. Culver | 1 | -2 | -1.9 | +0.5 | ||||||||
| John Konchar | J. Konchar | 1 | -1 | +0.7 | +0.3 | ||||||||
| Sam Merrill | S. Merrill | 0 | SAME | +0.5 | -0.7 | ||||||||
| Santi Aldama | S. Aldama | 0 | SAME | -2.6 | -0.8 | ||||||||
| Ziaire Williams | Z. Williams | 0 | SAME | -2.6 | -1.3 | ||||||||
| Killian Tillie | K. Tillie | 0 | SAME | -2.4 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Yves Pons | Y. Pons | 0 | SAME | -2.9 | -0.7 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +1.8 | +1.0 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.7 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.7 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 109-106 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 48 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1571 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1541). The weight given to Elo — 31% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1541). The weight given to Elo — 31% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1562 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1564 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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