The Memphis Grizzlies have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

		Expected minutes per game				PROJECTED PLAYER RATING		Exp. min. per game	PROJ. PLAYER RATING
Player		TOTAL	vs. full strength		vs. full strength		Off. +/-	Def. +/-
Ja Morant	J. Morant		0	-38			+5.4	-0.4
Desmond Bane*	D. Bane*		38	SAME			+2.9	+0.8
Jaren Jackson Jr.	J. Jackson Jr.		28	SAME			+0.2	+2.8
Dillon Brooks	D. Brooks		31	SAME			0.0	+1.7
Brandon Clarke*	B. Clarke*		30	SAME			0.0	+1.6
Kyle Anderson	K. Anderson		24	+2			-0.7	+1.1
Tyus Jones	T. Jones		22	+1			+0.9	-1.0
Xavier Tillman	X. Tillman		15	+2			-2.0	+1.7
Ziaire Williams	Z. Williams		11	+8			-1.2	-1.2
De'Anthony Melton	D. Melton		22	+18			-0.2	+1.5
Steven Adams	S. Adams		8	+2			+0.3	+1.0
Killian Tillie	K. Tillie		3	-3			-2.7	+0.3
John Konchar	J. Konchar		2	+2			+0.6	+0.5
Jarrett Culver	J. Culver		4	+4			-2.1	+0.3
Santi Aldama	S. Aldama		2	+2			-2.7	-1.2
Yves Pons	Y. Pons		0	SAME			-2.9	-0.7
Tyrell Terry	T. Terry		0	SAME			-0.1	-1.0
Rotation ratings	First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.					Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.			+1.3	+5.3
Adj. rotation ratings	A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.					Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.			+0.4	+4.5
Points per game	We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.9 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.					Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.9 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.			108-103
Rotation wins	We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.					Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.			53
Rotation rating	Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.					Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.			1623
Team rating	We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1638). The weight given to Elo — 34% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.					Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1638). The weight given to Elo — 34% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.			1629
Playoff rating	Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.					Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.			1630

Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

				PROJECTED PLAYER RATING
Player		Expected minutes per game		Off. +/-	Def. +/-
Ja Morant	J. Morant		38		+5.4	-0.4
Desmond Bane*	D. Bane*		38		+2.9	+0.8
Jaren Jackson Jr.	J. Jackson Jr.		28		+0.2	+2.8
Dillon Brooks	D. Brooks		31		0.0	+1.7
Brandon Clarke*	B. Clarke*		30		0.0	+1.6
Kyle Anderson	K. Anderson		22		-0.7	+1.1
Tyus Jones	T. Jones		21		+0.9	-1.0
Xavier Tillman	X. Tillman		13		-2.0	+1.7
Ziaire Williams	Z. Williams		3		-1.2	-1.2
De'Anthony Melton	D. Melton		4		-0.2	+1.5
Steven Adams	S. Adams		6		+0.3	+1.0
Killian Tillie	K. Tillie		6		-2.7	+0.3
John Konchar	J. Konchar		0		+0.6	+0.5
Jarrett Culver	J. Culver		0		-2.1	+0.3
Santi Aldama	S. Aldama		0		-2.7	-1.2
Yves Pons	Y. Pons		0		-2.9	-0.7
Tyrell Terry	T. Terry		0		-0.1	-1.0
Rotation ratings	First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.			Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.			+5.6	+4.6
Adj. rotation ratings	A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.			Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.			+4.7	+3.8
Points per game	We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.			Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.			112-104
Rotation wins	We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.			Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.			60
Rotation rating	Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.			Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.			1705
Team rating	We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1638). The weight given to Elo — 25% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.			Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1638). The weight given to Elo — 25% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.			1688
Playoff rating	Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.			Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.			1690

Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

At full strength vs. with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation

Current rotation

Current

2021-22 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

The Memphis Grizzlies have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

Team rating

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