2021-22 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
More NBA:Our preseason player projectionsRAPTOR player ratingsBuild your own team
The Atlanta Hawks have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength | vs. full strength | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Trae Young | T. Young | 37 | SAME | +6.9 | -3.5 | ||||||||
| De'Andre Hunter | D. Hunter | 32 | SAME | -1.3 | +0.3 | ||||||||
| Kevin Huerter | K. Huerter | 31 | SAME | +0.6 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| John Collins | J. Collins | 25 | SAME | +1.1 | +0.5 | ||||||||
| Delon Wright* | D. Wright* | 25 | SAME | 0.0 | +1.8 | ||||||||
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | B. Bogdanovic | 30 | SAME | +2.4 | +0.2 | ||||||||
| Clint Capela | C. Capela | 30 | SAME | +0.3 | +2.9 | ||||||||
| Onyeka Okongwu | O. Okongwu | 14 | SAME | -0.4 | +1.4 | ||||||||
| Danilo Gallinari | D. Gallinari | 14 | SAME | +1.1 | -1.5 | ||||||||
| Lou Williams | L. Williams | 2 | SAME | -0.1 | -2.3 | ||||||||
| Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot | T. Luwawu-Cabarrot | 0 | SAME | -0.9 | -0.8 | ||||||||
| Gorgui Dieng | G. Dieng | 0 | SAME | -1.4 | +1.3 | ||||||||
| Kevin Knox II | K. Knox II | 0 | SAME | -1.8 | -2.0 | ||||||||
| Jalen Johnson | J. Johnson | 0 | SAME | -2.0 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Skylar Mays | S. Mays | 0 | SAME | +0.4 | -1.3 | ||||||||
| Sharife Cooper | S. Cooper | 0 | SAME | -1.3 | -2.1 | ||||||||
| Chaundee Brown | C. Brown | 0 | SAME | -1.9 | -1.7 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +6.7 | +0.2 | |||||||||
| Adj. rotation ratings | A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | +6.5 | 0.0 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 113-107 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 56 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1656 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1546). The weight given to Elo — 34% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1546). The weight given to Elo — 34% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1618 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1624 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||
| Trae Young | T. Young | 37 | +6.9 | -3.5 | |||||
| De'Andre Hunter | D. Hunter | 32 | -1.3 | +0.3 | |||||
| Kevin Huerter | K. Huerter | 31 | +0.6 | -0.6 | |||||
| John Collins | J. Collins | 25 | +1.1 | +0.5 | |||||
| Delon Wright* | D. Wright* | 25 | 0.0 | +1.8 | |||||
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | B. Bogdanovic | 30 | +2.4 | +0.2 | |||||
| Clint Capela | C. Capela | 30 | +0.3 | +2.9 | |||||
| Onyeka Okongwu | O. Okongwu | 14 | -0.4 | +1.4 | |||||
| Danilo Gallinari | D. Gallinari | 14 | +1.1 | -1.5 | |||||
| Lou Williams | L. Williams | 2 | -0.1 | -2.3 | |||||
| Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot | T. Luwawu-Cabarrot | 0 | -0.9 | -0.8 | |||||
| Gorgui Dieng | G. Dieng | 0 | -1.4 | +1.3 | |||||
| Kevin Knox II | K. Knox II | 0 | -1.8 | -2.0 | |||||
| Jalen Johnson | J. Johnson | 0 | -2.0 | +0.1 | |||||
| Skylar Mays | S. Mays | 0 | +0.4 | -1.3 | |||||
| Sharife Cooper | S. Cooper | 0 | -1.3 | -2.1 | |||||
| Chaundee Brown | C. Brown | 0 | -1.9 | -1.7 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +6.7 | +0.2 | |||||
| Adj. rotation ratings | A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | +6.5 | 0.0 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 113-107 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 56 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1656 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1546). The weight given to Elo — 34% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1546). The weight given to Elo — 34% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1618 | ||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1624 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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