2021-22 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
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The Miami Heat have a 69% chance of making the playoffs and a 2% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Jimmy Butler | J. Butler | 33 | SAME | +3.4 | +1.5 | ||||||||
| Kyle Lowry | K. Lowry | 31 | SAME | +2.3 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Bam Adebayo | B. Adebayo | 33 | SAME | +0.1 | +1.4 | ||||||||
| Duncan Robinson | D. Robinson | 30 | SAME | +1.3 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Victor Oladipo | V. Oladipo | 0 | -28 | -0.9 | +1.0 | ||||||||
| Tyler Herro | T. Herro | 28 | +5 | +0.9 | -1.4 | ||||||||
| P.J. Tucker | P. Tucker | 22 | +3 | -3.8 | +1.1 | ||||||||
| Markieff Morris | M. Morris | 17 | +4 | -2.5 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| KZ Okpala | K. Okpala | 16 | +3 | -3.0 | +0.2 | ||||||||
| Dewayne Dedmon | D. Dedmon | 16 | +3 | -2.2 | +1.0 | ||||||||
| Gabe Vincent | G. Vincent | 6 | +4 | -0.4 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Max Strus | M. Strus | 7 | +5 | +1.1 | -1.1 | ||||||||
| Omer Yurtseven | O. Yurtseven | 1 | +1 | -2.3 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Udonis Haslem | U. Haslem | 0 | SAME | -5.2 | +0.4 | ||||||||
| Caleb Martin | C. Martin | 0 | SAME | -1.1 | +0.7 | ||||||||
| Marcus Garrett | M. Garrett | 0 | SAME | -1.5 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +0.7 | +1.2 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 111-109 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 46 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1554 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1513). The weight given to Elo — 19% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1513). The weight given to Elo — 19% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1546 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PLAYER RATING | PLAYER RATING | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Exp. min. per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||
| Jimmy Butler | J. Butler | 33 | +3.4 | +1.5 | ||||
| Kyle Lowry | K. Lowry | 31 | +2.3 | +0.1 | ||||
| Bam Adebayo | B. Adebayo | 33 | +0.1 | +1.4 | ||||
| Duncan Robinson | D. Robinson | 30 | +1.3 | -0.4 | ||||
| Victor Oladipo | V. Oladipo | 28 | -0.9 | +1.0 | ||||
| Tyler Herro | T. Herro | 23 | +0.9 | -1.4 | ||||
| P.J. Tucker | P. Tucker | 19 | -3.8 | +1.1 | ||||
| Markieff Morris | M. Morris | 13 | -2.5 | -0.6 | ||||
| KZ Okpala | K. Okpala | 13 | -3.0 | +0.2 | ||||
| Dewayne Dedmon | D. Dedmon | 13 | -2.2 | +1.0 | ||||
| Gabe Vincent | G. Vincent | 2 | -0.4 | -0.4 | ||||
| Max Strus | M. Strus | 2 | +1.1 | -1.1 | ||||
| Omer Yurtseven | O. Yurtseven | 0 | -2.3 | -0.4 | ||||
| Udonis Haslem | U. Haslem | 0 | -5.2 | +0.4 | ||||
| Caleb Martin | C. Martin | 0 | -1.1 | +0.7 | ||||
| Marcus Garrett | M. Garrett | 0 | -1.5 | +0.1 | ||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +0.8 | +1.8 | ||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 112-109 | |||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 48 | |||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1573 | |||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1513). The weight given to Elo — 13% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1513). The weight given to Elo — 13% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1565 | |||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| Expected minutes per game | PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Jimmy Butler | J. Butler | 37 | +4 | +3.3 | +1.4 | ||||||||
| Kyle Lowry | K. Lowry | 32 | +1 | +2.5 | +0.2 | ||||||||
| Bam Adebayo | B. Adebayo | 34 | +1 | +0.1 | +1.4 | ||||||||
| Duncan Robinson | D. Robinson | 30 | SAME | +1.3 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Victor Oladipo | V. Oladipo | 25 | -3 | -0.8 | +1.0 | ||||||||
| Tyler Herro | T. Herro | 30 | +7 | +1.0 | -1.4 | ||||||||
| P.J. Tucker | P. Tucker | 19 | SAME | -2.7 | +1.4 | ||||||||
| Markieff Morris | M. Morris | 11 | -2 | -2.3 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| KZ Okpala | K. Okpala | 11 | -2 | -2.9 | +0.2 | ||||||||
| Dewayne Dedmon | D. Dedmon | 11 | -2 | -2.3 | +0.9 | ||||||||
| Gabe Vincent | G. Vincent | 0 | -2 | -0.3 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Max Strus | M. Strus | 0 | -2 | +1.1 | -1.0 | ||||||||
| Omer Yurtseven | O. Yurtseven | 0 | SAME | -2.3 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Udonis Haslem | U. Haslem | 0 | SAME | -5.2 | +0.4 | ||||||||
| Caleb Martin | C. Martin | 0 | SAME | -1.1 | +0.7 | ||||||||
| Marcus Garrett | M. Garrett | 0 | SAME | -1.4 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +2.3 | +2.1 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.7 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.7 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 109-105 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 52 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1608 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1513). The weight given to Elo — 10% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1513). The weight given to Elo — 10% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1598 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1610 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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