2021-22 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
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The Miami Heat have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength | vs. full strength | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Jimmy Butler* | J. Butler* | 40 | SAME | +3.7 | +1.2 | ||||||||
| Kyle Lowry | K. Lowry | 32 | SAME | +2.2 | +0.7 | ||||||||
| Bam Adebayo* | B. Adebayo* | 40 | SAME | +0.1 | +2.7 | ||||||||
| Max Strus* | M. Strus* | 30 | SAME | +1.6 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| P.J. Tucker* | P. Tucker* | 33 | SAME | -0.7 | +2.2 | ||||||||
| Victor Oladipo | V. Oladipo | 17 | SAME | -0.8 | +1.1 | ||||||||
| Tyler Herro | T. Herro | 16 | SAME | +1.4 | -1.2 | ||||||||
| Gabe Vincent | G. Vincent | 12 | SAME | -0.4 | +0.4 | ||||||||
| Caleb Martin | C. Martin | 7 | SAME | -0.7 | +1.6 | ||||||||
| Duncan Robinson | D. Robinson | 8 | SAME | +0.9 | -0.7 | ||||||||
| Dewayne Dedmon | D. Dedmon | 5 | SAME | -2.3 | +0.9 | ||||||||
| Markieff Morris | M. Morris | 0 | SAME | -2.2 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Omer Yurtseven | O. Yurtseven | 0 | SAME | -2.2 | +0.3 | ||||||||
| Haywood Highsmith | H. Highsmith | 0 | SAME | -3.1 | -1.0 | ||||||||
| Javonte Smart | J. Smart | 0 | SAME | -2.5 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Mychal Mulder | M. Mulder | 0 | SAME | -1.4 | -1.4 | ||||||||
| Udonis Haslem | U. Haslem | 0 | SAME | -5.2 | +0.4 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +4.9 | +5.0 | |||||||||
| Adj. rotation ratings | A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | +3.9 | +4.0 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.2 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.2 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 110-103 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 60 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1695 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1656). The weight given to Elo — 36% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1656). The weight given to Elo — 36% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1681 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1693 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||
| Jimmy Butler* | J. Butler* | 40 | +3.7 | +1.2 | |||||
| Kyle Lowry | K. Lowry | 32 | +2.2 | +0.7 | |||||
| Bam Adebayo* | B. Adebayo* | 40 | +0.1 | +2.7 | |||||
| Max Strus* | M. Strus* | 30 | +1.6 | -0.6 | |||||
| P.J. Tucker* | P. Tucker* | 33 | -0.7 | +2.2 | |||||
| Victor Oladipo | V. Oladipo | 17 | -0.8 | +1.1 | |||||
| Tyler Herro | T. Herro | 16 | +1.4 | -1.2 | |||||
| Gabe Vincent | G. Vincent | 12 | -0.4 | +0.4 | |||||
| Caleb Martin | C. Martin | 7 | -0.7 | +1.6 | |||||
| Duncan Robinson | D. Robinson | 8 | +0.9 | -0.7 | |||||
| Dewayne Dedmon | D. Dedmon | 5 | -2.3 | +0.9 | |||||
| Markieff Morris | M. Morris | 0 | -2.2 | -0.9 | |||||
| Omer Yurtseven | O. Yurtseven | 0 | -2.2 | +0.3 | |||||
| Haywood Highsmith | H. Highsmith | 0 | -3.1 | -1.0 | |||||
| Javonte Smart | J. Smart | 0 | -2.5 | -0.4 | |||||
| Mychal Mulder | M. Mulder | 0 | -1.4 | -1.4 | |||||
| Udonis Haslem | U. Haslem | 0 | -5.2 | +0.4 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +4.9 | +5.0 | |||||
| Adj. rotation ratings | A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | +3.9 | +4.0 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.2 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.2 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 110-103 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 60 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1695 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1656). The weight given to Elo — 36% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1656). The weight given to Elo — 36% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1681 | ||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1693 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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