2021-22 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
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The Charlotte Hornets have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength | vs. full strength | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Miles Bridges | M. Bridges | 35 | SAME | +1.0 | -0.2 | ||||||||
| Terry Rozier | T. Rozier | 34 | SAME | +2.4 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| LaMelo Ball | L. Ball | 35 | SAME | +2.7 | -0.5 | ||||||||
| Gordon Hayward | G. Hayward | 31 | SAME | -0.1 | -1.0 | ||||||||
| P.J. Washington | P. Washington | 26 | SAME | -0.5 | -0.7 | ||||||||
| Kelly Oubre Jr. | K. Oubre Jr. | 26 | SAME | -0.7 | -0.1 | ||||||||
| Cody Martin | C. Martin | 20 | SAME | -0.4 | +1.1 | ||||||||
| Mason Plumlee | M. Plumlee | 20 | SAME | -1.9 | +0.5 | ||||||||
| Montrezl Harrell | M. Harrell | 3 | SAME | +0.6 | +1.1 | ||||||||
| Jalen McDaniels | J. McDaniels | 3 | SAME | -1.1 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Isaiah Thomas | I. Thomas | 5 | SAME | -0.7 | -2.2 | ||||||||
| James Bouknight | J. Bouknight | 2 | SAME | -1.8 | -2.9 | ||||||||
| JT Thor | J. Thor | 0 | SAME | -3.1 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Nick Richards | N. Richards | 0 | SAME | -3.1 | -0.1 | ||||||||
| Kai Jones | K. Jones | 0 | SAME | -2.8 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Arnoldas Kulboka | A. Kulboka | 0 | SAME | -3.2 | +0.4 | ||||||||
| Scottie Lewis | S. Lewis | 0 | SAME | -2.5 | +0.2 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +2.3 | -1.3 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 100.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 100.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 111-110 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 43 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1527 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1535). The weight given to Elo — 29% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1535). The weight given to Elo — 29% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1529 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1533 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||
| Miles Bridges | M. Bridges | 35 | +1.0 | -0.2 | |||||
| Terry Rozier | T. Rozier | 34 | +2.4 | -0.4 | |||||
| LaMelo Ball | L. Ball | 35 | +2.7 | -0.5 | |||||
| Gordon Hayward | G. Hayward | 31 | -0.1 | -1.0 | |||||
| P.J. Washington | P. Washington | 26 | -0.5 | -0.7 | |||||
| Kelly Oubre Jr. | K. Oubre Jr. | 26 | -0.7 | -0.1 | |||||
| Cody Martin | C. Martin | 20 | -0.4 | +1.1 | |||||
| Mason Plumlee | M. Plumlee | 20 | -1.9 | +0.5 | |||||
| Montrezl Harrell | M. Harrell | 3 | +0.6 | +1.1 | |||||
| Jalen McDaniels | J. McDaniels | 3 | -1.1 | 0.0 | |||||
| Isaiah Thomas | I. Thomas | 5 | -0.7 | -2.2 | |||||
| James Bouknight | J. Bouknight | 2 | -1.8 | -2.9 | |||||
| JT Thor | J. Thor | 0 | -3.1 | -0.6 | |||||
| Nick Richards | N. Richards | 0 | -3.1 | -0.1 | |||||
| Kai Jones | K. Jones | 0 | -2.8 | +0.1 | |||||
| Arnoldas Kulboka | A. Kulboka | 0 | -3.2 | +0.4 | |||||
| Scottie Lewis | S. Lewis | 0 | -2.5 | +0.2 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +2.3 | -1.3 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 100.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 100.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 111-110 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 43 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1527 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1535). The weight given to Elo — 29% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1535). The weight given to Elo — 29% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1529 | ||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1533 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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