2021-22 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
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The Dallas Mavericks have an 84% chance of making the playoffs and a 3% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Luka Doncic | L. Doncic | 38 | SAME | +8.2 | -1.3 | ||||||||
| Kristaps Porzingis | K. Porzingis | 28 | SAME | +1.4 | +0.4 | ||||||||
| Dorian Finney-Smith | D. Finney-Smith | 28 | SAME | +0.3 | +0.8 | ||||||||
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | T. Hardaway Jr. | 28 | SAME | +1.6 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Maxi Kleber | M. Kleber | 24 | SAME | -1.6 | +0.9 | ||||||||
| Dwight Powell | D. Powell | 17 | SAME | -0.7 | +1.0 | ||||||||
| Jalen Brunson | J. Brunson | 17 | SAME | +1.5 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Reggie Bullock | R. Bullock | 15 | SAME | -1.1 | +0.2 | ||||||||
| Willie Cauley-Stein | W. Cauley-Stein | 15 | SAME | -2.3 | +2.3 | ||||||||
| Trey Burke | T. Burke | 10 | SAME | +1.0 | -1.3 | ||||||||
| Josh Green | J. Green | 10 | SAME | -1.5 | -1.1 | ||||||||
| Frank Ntilikina | F. Ntilikina | 10 | SAME | -1.1 | +0.6 | ||||||||
| Sterling Brown | S. Brown | 0 | SAME | -1.4 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Boban Marjanovic | B. Marjanovic | 0 | SAME | -1.7 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Moses Brown | M. Brown | 0 | SAME | -3.4 | +0.5 | ||||||||
| Eugene Omoruyi | E. Omoruyi | 0 | SAME | -2.3 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Jaquori McLaughlin | J. McLaughlin | 0 | SAME | -2.2 | -1.2 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +5.2 | +0.3 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.7 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.7 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 116-110 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 55 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1642 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1541). The weight given to Elo — 33% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1541). The weight given to Elo — 33% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1608 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PLAYER RATING | PLAYER RATING | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Exp. min. per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||
| Luka Doncic | L. Doncic | 38 | +8.2 | -1.3 | ||||
| Kristaps Porzingis | K. Porzingis | 28 | +1.4 | +0.4 | ||||
| Dorian Finney-Smith | D. Finney-Smith | 28 | +0.3 | +0.8 | ||||
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | T. Hardaway Jr. | 28 | +1.6 | -0.6 | ||||
| Maxi Kleber | M. Kleber | 24 | -1.6 | +0.9 | ||||
| Dwight Powell | D. Powell | 17 | -0.7 | +1.0 | ||||
| Jalen Brunson | J. Brunson | 17 | +1.5 | -0.6 | ||||
| Reggie Bullock | R. Bullock | 15 | -1.1 | +0.2 | ||||
| Willie Cauley-Stein | W. Cauley-Stein | 15 | -2.3 | +2.3 | ||||
| Trey Burke | T. Burke | 10 | +1.0 | -1.3 | ||||
| Josh Green | J. Green | 10 | -1.5 | -1.1 | ||||
| Frank Ntilikina | F. Ntilikina | 10 | -1.1 | +0.6 | ||||
| Sterling Brown | S. Brown | 0 | -1.4 | -0.4 | ||||
| Boban Marjanovic | B. Marjanovic | 0 | -1.7 | +0.1 | ||||
| Moses Brown | M. Brown | 0 | -3.4 | +0.5 | ||||
| Eugene Omoruyi | E. Omoruyi | 0 | -2.3 | -0.4 | ||||
| Jaquori McLaughlin | J. McLaughlin | 0 | -2.2 | -1.2 | ||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +5.2 | +0.3 | ||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.7 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.7 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 116-110 | |||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 55 | |||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1642 | |||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1541). The weight given to Elo — 33% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1541). The weight given to Elo — 33% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1608 | |||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| Expected minutes per game | PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Luka Doncic | L. Doncic | 41 | +3 | +8.3 | -1.3 | ||||||||
| Kristaps Porzingis | K. Porzingis | 31 | +3 | +1.4 | +0.4 | ||||||||
| Dorian Finney-Smith | D. Finney-Smith | 30 | +2 | +0.4 | +0.8 | ||||||||
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | T. Hardaway Jr. | 29 | +1 | +1.3 | -0.7 | ||||||||
| Maxi Kleber | M. Kleber | 22 | -2 | -1.8 | +0.9 | ||||||||
| Dwight Powell | D. Powell | 16 | -1 | -0.7 | +1.0 | ||||||||
| Jalen Brunson | J. Brunson | 25 | +8 | +1.4 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Reggie Bullock | R. Bullock | 20 | +5 | -1.1 | +0.2 | ||||||||
| Willie Cauley-Stein | W. Cauley-Stein | 18 | +3 | -2.3 | +2.3 | ||||||||
| Trey Burke | T. Burke | 2 | -8 | +1.0 | -1.3 | ||||||||
| Josh Green | J. Green | 3 | -7 | -1.5 | -1.1 | ||||||||
| Frank Ntilikina | F. Ntilikina | 3 | -7 | -1.0 | +0.7 | ||||||||
| Sterling Brown | S. Brown | 0 | SAME | -1.3 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Boban Marjanovic | B. Marjanovic | 0 | SAME | -1.7 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Moses Brown | M. Brown | 0 | SAME | -3.4 | +0.5 | ||||||||
| Eugene Omoruyi | E. Omoruyi | 0 | SAME | -2.2 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| Jaquori McLaughlin | J. McLaughlin | 0 | SAME | -2.0 | -1.2 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +6.5 | +0.5 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.1 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.1 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 113-106 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 57 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1667 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1541). The weight given to Elo — 32% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1541). The weight given to Elo — 32% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1626 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1629 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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