2021-22 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
More NBA:Our preseason player projectionsRAPTOR player ratingsBuild your own team
The Dallas Mavericks have a 30% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength | vs. full strength | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Luka Doncic | L. Doncic | 38 | +1 | +8.9 | +4.0 | ||||||||
| Dorian Finney-Smith* | D. Finney-Smith* | 38 | SAME | +1.2 | +1.2 | ||||||||
| Reggie Bullock* | R. Bullock* | 38 | SAME | -0.7 | +0.3 | ||||||||
| Jalen Brunson* | J. Brunson* | 38 | SAME | +2.9 | +0.3 | ||||||||
| Spencer Dinwiddie | S. Dinwiddie | 29 | +2 | +1.4 | -1.0 | ||||||||
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | T. Hardaway Jr. | 0 | -15 | +0.6 | -0.2 | ||||||||
| Maxi Kleber | M. Kleber | 23 | SAME | -1.6 | +1.0 | ||||||||
| Dwight Powell | D. Powell | 19 | +1 | -0.6 | +0.8 | ||||||||
| Josh Green | J. Green | 7 | +7 | -1.8 | +0.8 | ||||||||
| Davis Bertans | D. Bertans | 10 | +4 | +0.8 | -0.8 | ||||||||
| Trey Burke | T. Burke | 0 | SAME | -0.2 | -1.0 | ||||||||
| Sterling Brown | S. Brown | 0 | SAME | -2.0 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Frank Ntilikina | F. Ntilikina | 0 | SAME | -1.4 | +2.1 | ||||||||
| Marquese Chriss | M. Chriss | 0 | SAME | -3.1 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| Theo Pinson | T. Pinson | 0 | SAME | -2.2 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Boban Marjanovic | B. Marjanovic | 0 | SAME | -1.8 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +8.7 | +4.4 | |||||||||
| Adj. rotation ratings | A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | +8.1 | +3.8 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 96.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 96.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 113-101 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 66 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1782 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1663). The weight given to Elo — 43% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1663). The weight given to Elo — 43% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1730 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1733 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||
| Luka Doncic | L. Doncic | 37 | +8.9 | +4.0 | |||||
| Dorian Finney-Smith* | D. Finney-Smith* | 38 | +1.2 | +1.2 | |||||
| Reggie Bullock* | R. Bullock* | 38 | -0.7 | +0.3 | |||||
| Jalen Brunson* | J. Brunson* | 38 | +2.9 | +0.3 | |||||
| Spencer Dinwiddie | S. Dinwiddie | 27 | +1.4 | -1.0 | |||||
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | T. Hardaway Jr. | 15 | +0.6 | -0.2 | |||||
| Maxi Kleber | M. Kleber | 23 | -1.6 | +1.0 | |||||
| Dwight Powell | D. Powell | 18 | -0.6 | +0.8 | |||||
| Josh Green | J. Green | 0 | -1.8 | +0.8 | |||||
| Davis Bertans | D. Bertans | 6 | +0.8 | -0.8 | |||||
| Trey Burke | T. Burke | 0 | -0.2 | -1.0 | |||||
| Sterling Brown | S. Brown | 0 | -2.0 | +0.1 | |||||
| Frank Ntilikina | F. Ntilikina | 0 | -1.4 | +2.1 | |||||
| Marquese Chriss | M. Chriss | 0 | -3.1 | -0.3 | |||||
| Theo Pinson | T. Pinson | 0 | -2.2 | -0.6 | |||||
| Boban Marjanovic | B. Marjanovic | 0 | -1.8 | +0.1 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +8.9 | +4.3 | |||||
| Adj. rotation ratings | A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | +8.2 | +3.6 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 96.7 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 96.7 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 113-101 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 66 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1781 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1663). The weight given to Elo — 36% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1663). The weight given to Elo — 36% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1739 | ||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1741 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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