2021-22 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
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The Indiana Pacers have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength | vs. full strength | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Malcolm Brogdon | M. Brogdon | 34 | +7 | +1.8 | -0.7 | ||||||||
| Myles Turner | M. Turner | 0 | -33 | -1.4 | +3.0 | ||||||||
| Tyrese Haliburton | T. Haliburton | 37 | +10 | +2.3 | -1.2 | ||||||||
| Chris Duarte | C. Duarte | 0 | -26 | -0.7 | +0.6 | ||||||||
| Buddy Hield | B. Hield | 33 | +2 | +1.7 | -1.1 | ||||||||
| T.J. Warren | T. Warren | 0 | -25 | -0.7 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| Ricky Rubio | R. Rubio | 0 | -8 | +0.1 | +1.7 | ||||||||
| T.J. McConnell | T. McConnell | 25 | +17 | +0.2 | +0.4 | ||||||||
| Oshae Brissett* | O. Brissett* | 30 | +7 | -0.7 | -1.2 | ||||||||
| Lance Stephenson | L. Stephenson | 15 | +8 | -1.0 | -3.5 | ||||||||
| Jalen Smith* | J. Smith* | 26 | +11 | -0.8 | -0.7 | ||||||||
| Isaiah Jackson | I. Jackson | 18 | +14 | -2.1 | +1.1 | ||||||||
| Goga Bitadze* | G. Bitadze* | 22 | +16 | -0.4 | -0.8 | ||||||||
| Keifer Sykes | K. Sykes | 0 | SAME | -2.6 | -1.1 | ||||||||
| Terry Taylor | T. Taylor | 0 | SAME | +0.2 | -2.0 | ||||||||
| Duane Washington Jr. | D. Washington Jr. | 0 | SAME | -0.9 | -2.0 | ||||||||
| Justin Anderson | J. Anderson | 0 | SAME | 0.0 | -1.8 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +2.5 | -3.2 | |||||||||
| Adj. rotation ratings | A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | +1.4 | -4.3 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.5 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.5 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 108-111 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 34 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1437 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1364). The weight given to Elo — 11% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1364). The weight given to Elo — 11% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1429 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1431 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||
| Malcolm Brogdon | M. Brogdon | 27 | +1.8 | -0.7 | |||||
| Myles Turner | M. Turner | 33 | -1.4 | +3.0 | |||||
| Tyrese Haliburton | T. Haliburton | 27 | +2.3 | -1.2 | |||||
| Chris Duarte | C. Duarte | 26 | -0.7 | +0.6 | |||||
| Buddy Hield | B. Hield | 31 | +1.7 | -1.1 | |||||
| T.J. Warren | T. Warren | 25 | -0.7 | -0.3 | |||||
| Ricky Rubio | R. Rubio | 8 | +0.1 | +1.7 | |||||
| T.J. McConnell | T. McConnell | 8 | +0.2 | +0.4 | |||||
| Oshae Brissett | O. Brissett | 23 | -0.7 | -1.2 | |||||
| Lance Stephenson | L. Stephenson | 7 | -1.0 | -3.5 | |||||
| Jalen Smith | J. Smith | 15 | -0.8 | -0.7 | |||||
| Isaiah Jackson | I. Jackson | 4 | -2.1 | +1.1 | |||||
| Goga Bitadze | G. Bitadze | 6 | -0.4 | -0.8 | |||||
| Keifer Sykes | K. Sykes | 0 | -2.6 | -1.1 | |||||
| Terry Taylor | T. Taylor | 0 | +0.2 | -2.0 | |||||
| Duane Washington Jr. | D. Washington Jr. | 0 | -0.9 | -2.0 | |||||
| Justin Anderson | J. Anderson | 0 | 0.0 | -1.8 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +0.7 | -0.5 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.4 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.4 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 107-107 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 42 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1511 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1364). The weight given to Elo — 3% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1364). The weight given to Elo — 3% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1505 | ||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1508 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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