2021-22 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
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The Detroit Pistons have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength | vs. full strength | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Jerami Grant | J. Grant | 0 | -33 | -0.2 | -0.5 | ||||||||
| Saddiq Bey | S. Bey | 33 | +1 | -0.3 | -2.0 | ||||||||
| Cade Cunningham | C. Cunningham | 39 | SAME | -1.1 | -0.7 | ||||||||
| Isaiah Stewart | I. Stewart | 28 | +2 | -2.8 | +1.3 | ||||||||
| Marvin Bagley III | M. Bagley III | 26 | +1 | -1.1 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| Cory Joseph | C. Joseph | 24 | +1 | -0.9 | +0.3 | ||||||||
| Kelly Olynyk | K. Olynyk | 22 | +2 | +0.5 | +0.8 | ||||||||
| Killian Hayes | K. Hayes | 25 | +1 | -3.5 | -0.5 | ||||||||
| Hamidou Diallo | H. Diallo | 0 | -14 | -1.3 | +0.7 | ||||||||
| Isaiah Livers | I. Livers | 14 | +10 | -1.2 | -1.0 | ||||||||
| Frank Jackson | F. Jackson | 5 | +5 | -0.9 | -2.1 | ||||||||
| Saben Lee | S. Lee | 3 | +3 | -1.3 | -0.5 | ||||||||
| Luka Garza | L. Garza | 5 | +5 | -1.0 | -1.5 | ||||||||
| Rodney McGruder | R. McGruder | 6 | +6 | -0.2 | -0.7 | ||||||||
| Jamorko Pickett | J. Pickett | 5 | +5 | -2.5 | -0.7 | ||||||||
| Carsen Edwards | C. Edwards | 0 | SAME | 0.0 | -1.5 | ||||||||
| Braxton Key | B. Key | 5 | +5 | -1.9 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -5.8 | -1.8 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 101-108 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 23 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1318 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1356). The weight given to Elo — 27% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1356). The weight given to Elo — 27% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1329 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1330 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||
| Jerami Grant | J. Grant | 33 | -0.2 | -0.5 | |||||
| Saddiq Bey | S. Bey | 32 | -0.3 | -2.0 | |||||
| Cade Cunningham | C. Cunningham | 39 | -1.1 | -0.7 | |||||
| Isaiah Stewart | I. Stewart | 26 | -2.8 | +1.3 | |||||
| Marvin Bagley III | M. Bagley III | 25 | -1.1 | -0.3 | |||||
| Cory Joseph | C. Joseph | 23 | -0.9 | +0.3 | |||||
| Kelly Olynyk | K. Olynyk | 20 | +0.5 | +0.8 | |||||
| Killian Hayes | K. Hayes | 24 | -3.5 | -0.5 | |||||
| Hamidou Diallo | H. Diallo | 14 | -1.3 | +0.7 | |||||
| Isaiah Livers | I. Livers | 4 | -1.2 | -1.0 | |||||
| Frank Jackson | F. Jackson | 0 | -0.9 | -2.1 | |||||
| Saben Lee | S. Lee | 0 | -1.3 | -0.5 | |||||
| Luka Garza | L. Garza | 0 | -1.0 | -1.5 | |||||
| Rodney McGruder | R. McGruder | 0 | -0.2 | -0.7 | |||||
| Jamorko Pickett | J. Pickett | 0 | -2.5 | -0.7 | |||||
| Carsen Edwards | C. Edwards | 0 | 0.0 | -1.5 | |||||
| Braxton Key | B. Key | 0 | -1.9 | -0.9 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -5.2 | -1.2 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.4 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.4 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 102-108 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 26 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1349 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1356). The weight given to Elo — 13% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1356). The weight given to Elo — 13% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1350 | ||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1353 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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