2021-22 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
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The Portland Trail Blazers have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength | vs. full strength | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Damian Lillard | D. Lillard | 0 | -39 | +5.9 | -2.0 | ||||||||
| Jusuf Nurkic | J. Nurkic | 0 | -29 | -0.5 | +2.9 | ||||||||
| Anfernee Simons | A. Simons | 0 | -25 | +1.7 | -2.6 | ||||||||
| Josh Hart | J. Hart | 34 | SAME | +0.3 | +0.5 | ||||||||
| Eric Bledsoe | E. Bledsoe | 0 | -24 | -1.0 | +0.5 | ||||||||
| Justise Winslow* | J. Winslow* | 26 | +10 | -1.7 | +1.1 | ||||||||
| Joe Ingles | J. Ingles | 0 | -26 | 0.0 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Drew Eubanks* | D. Eubanks* | 27 | +10 | -2.5 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Nassir Little | N. Little | 0 | -20 | -0.2 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Keon Johnson | K. Johnson | 16 | +12 | -4.1 | -2.5 | ||||||||
| Brandon Williams | B. Williams | 14 | +12 | -1.1 | -1.7 | ||||||||
| Kris Dunn | K. Dunn | 21 | +19 | -1.2 | +1.4 | ||||||||
| Ben McLemore | B. McLemore | 18 | +16 | -0.6 | -2.6 | ||||||||
| CJ Elleby | C. Elleby | 17 | +17 | -2.2 | -1.8 | ||||||||
| Reggie Perry | R. Perry | 14 | +14 | -1.9 | -1.6 | ||||||||
| Elijah Hughes | E. Hughes | 10 | +10 | -2.9 | -2.1 | ||||||||
| Greg Brown III | G. Brown III | 11 | +11 | -4.5 | -1.8 | ||||||||
| Keljin Blevins | K. Blevins | 10 | +10 | -2.6 | -3.0 | ||||||||
| Trendon Watford | T. Watford | 14 | +14 | -2.6 | -3.2 | ||||||||
| Didi Louzada | D. Louzada | 8 | +8 | -2.5 | -1.0 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -7.8 | -3.7 | |||||||||
| Adj. rotation ratings | A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | -8.8 | -4.8 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 99-113 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 13 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1173 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1253). The weight given to Elo — 23% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1253). The weight given to Elo — 23% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1191 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1192 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||
| Damian Lillard | D. Lillard | 39 | +5.9 | -2.0 | |||||
| Jusuf Nurkic | J. Nurkic | 29 | -0.5 | +2.9 | |||||
| Anfernee Simons | A. Simons | 25 | +1.7 | -2.6 | |||||
| Josh Hart | J. Hart | 34 | +0.3 | +0.5 | |||||
| Eric Bledsoe | E. Bledsoe | 24 | -1.0 | +0.5 | |||||
| Justise Winslow | J. Winslow | 16 | -1.7 | +1.1 | |||||
| Joe Ingles | J. Ingles | 26 | 0.0 | -0.4 | |||||
| Drew Eubanks | D. Eubanks | 17 | -2.5 | -0.6 | |||||
| Nassir Little | N. Little | 20 | -0.2 | -0.4 | |||||
| Keon Johnson | K. Johnson | 4 | -4.1 | -2.5 | |||||
| Brandon Williams | B. Williams | 2 | -1.1 | -1.7 | |||||
| Kris Dunn | K. Dunn | 2 | -1.2 | +1.4 | |||||
| Ben McLemore | B. McLemore | 2 | -0.6 | -2.6 | |||||
| CJ Elleby | C. Elleby | 0 | -2.2 | -1.8 | |||||
| Reggie Perry | R. Perry | 0 | -1.9 | -1.6 | |||||
| Elijah Hughes | E. Hughes | 0 | -2.9 | -2.1 | |||||
| Greg Brown III | G. Brown III | 0 | -4.5 | -1.8 | |||||
| Keljin Blevins | K. Blevins | 0 | -2.6 | -3.0 | |||||
| Trendon Watford | T. Watford | 0 | -2.6 | -3.2 | |||||
| Didi Louzada | D. Louzada | 0 | -2.5 | -1.0 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +2.8 | -1.1 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.5 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.5 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 111-109 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 45 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1545 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1253). The weight given to Elo — 0% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1253). The weight given to Elo — 0% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1545 | ||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1551 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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