UPDATED Oct. 4, 2022, at 5:33 PM

2022 NFL Predictions

For the regular season and playoffs, updated after every game.

More NFL:Every team’s Elo historyCan you outsmart our forecasts?

elo with top qb
elo rating
1-week changecurrent qb adj.teamdivision
record
sim. record
point diff.make playoffswin division1st-round byewin super bowl
1679
+7
Bills3-1AFC East13-4+171.795%70%42%19%
1642
+27
Chiefs3-1AFC West12-5+114.688%70%26%12%
1616
+6
Eagles4-0NFC East13-4+133.994%70%45%12%
1606
-19
Buccaneers2-2NFC South11-6+93.885%79%9%8%
1594
+4
Packers3-1NFC North11-6+60.681%49%14%7%
1584
+28
49ers2-2NFC West10-7+85.171%49%6%5%
1589
+24
-110Cowboys3-1NFC East11-6+50.574%24%10%5%
1580
-17
Ravens2-2AFC North10-7+79.771%50%5%5%
1555
-37
-31Dolphins3-1AFC East11-6+45.977%26%11%4%
1544
+7
Vikings3-1NFC North11-6+46.676%43%8%4%
1561
+30
Bengals2-2AFC North9-8+46.255%31%5%3%
1537
-33
Rams2-2NFC West9-8-3.552%26%3%2%
1525
+24
Titans2-2AFC South9-8-16.754%40%2%2%
1544
-11
-98Browns2-2AFC North8-9-1.135%18%1%2%
1518
+20
Chargers2-2AFC West9-8-9.544%13%2%2%
1500
+26
Cardinals2-2NFC West8-9-23.236%16%2%2%
1502
-19
Broncos2-2AFC West8-9-6.639%12%2%1%
1481
-19
Jaguars2-2AFC South9-8+42.450%36%3%1%
1481
-17
Colts1-2-1AFC South7-9-1-33.835%23%0.7%0.8%
1481
-1
-72Patriots1-3AFC East7-10-36.721%3%0.5%0.6%
1444
+24
Giants3-1NFC East9-8-28.735%6%2%0.6%
1478
+24
Raiders1-3AFC West7-10-20.720%5%0.4%0.5%
1457
-11
-34Saints1-3NFC South7-10-49.716%7%0.2%0.4%
1431
+32
Seahawks2-2NFC West7-10-56.722%8%0.4%0.4%
1392
+7
Falcons2-2NFC South7-10-53.317%9%0.2%0.2%
1414
-8
Lions1-3NFC North6-11-46.611%3%<0.1%0.2%
1394
-21
Bears2-2NFC North7-10-75.114%4%0.3%0.2%
1410
-26
Commanders1-3NFC East6-11-83.39%0.6%0.1%0.1%
1383
-28
Panthers1-3NFC South6-11-74.78%5%<0.1%<0.1%
1368
+25
Jets2-2AFC East6-11-114.68%1%0.1%<0.1%
1387
-61
Steelers1-3AFC North5-12-101.55%2%<0.1%<0.1%
1326
-17
Texans0-3-1AFC South3-13-1-134.92%1%<0.1%<0.1%

Week 5

Thursday, Oct. 6

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Colts40%
Broncos-360%
Quality
44
How good
are these
two teams
Importance
80
How much will this game affect playoff odds
Overall
62
An overall
rating for
this game

Sunday, Oct. 9

9:30 a.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Giants30%
Packers-670%
Quality
56
Importance
67
Overall
62
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Falcons18%
Buccaneers-10.582%
Quality
44
Importance
45
Overall
45
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bears24%
Vikings-876%
Quality
31
Importance
50
Overall
41
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Lions43%
Patriots-257%
Quality
10
Importance
34
Overall
22
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Texans23%
Jaguars-8.577%
Quality
7
Importance
24
Overall
16
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chargers-0.552%
Browns48%
Quality
38
Importance
87
Overall
63
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Dolphins-464%
Jets36%
Quality
20
Importance
49
Overall
35
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Steelers12%
Bills-13.588%
Quality
58
Importance
10
Overall
34
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Seahawks43%
Saints-257%
Quality
15
Importance
51
Overall
33
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Titans-2.559%
Commanders41%
Quality
31
Importance
45
Overall
38
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
49ers-5.570%
Panthers30%
Quality
36
Importance
40
Overall
38
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cowboys34%
Rams-4.566%
Quality
52
Importance
72
Overall
62
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Eagles-2.558%
Cardinals42%
Quality
75
Importance
80
Overall
78
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bengals40%
Ravens-360%
Quality
81
Importance
95
Overall
88

Monday, Oct. 10

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Raiders22%
Chiefs-8.578%
Quality
75
Importance
50
Overall
63

Week 6

Thursday, Oct. 13

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Commanders45%
Bears-1.555%
Quality
8
Importance
31
Overall
20

Sunday, Oct. 16

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Ravens-3.562%
Giants38%
Quality
53
Importance
68
Overall
61
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bengals-257%
Saints43%
Quality
52
Importance
55
Overall
54
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jaguars43%
Colts-257%
Quality
38
Importance
89
Overall
64
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Vikings45%
Dolphins-1.555%
Quality
66
Importance
58
Overall
62
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Patriots45%
Browns-1.555%
Quality
25
Importance
76
Overall
51
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jets17%
Packers-1183%
Quality
34
Importance
17
Overall
26
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
49ers-5.569%
Falcons31%
Quality
38
Importance
58
Overall
48
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Buccaneers-6.572%
Steelers28%
Quality
42
Importance
17
Overall
30
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cardinals-0.552%
Seahawks48%
Quality
30
Importance
81
Overall
56
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Panthers23%
Rams-8.577%
Quality
26
Importance
35
Overall
31
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bills48%
Chiefs-0.552%
Quality
98
Importance
97
Overall
98
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cowboys28%
Eagles-6.572%
Quality
78
Importance
92
Overall
85

Monday, Oct. 17

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Broncos40%
Chargers-2.560%
Quality
54
Importance
90
Overall
72

Week 7

Thursday, Oct. 20

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Saints36%
Cardinals-464%
Quality
37
Importance
62
Overall
50

Sunday, Oct. 23

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Falcons22%
Bengals-978%
Quality
33
Importance
38
Overall
36
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Browns26%
Ravens-7.574%
Quality
53
Importance
80
Overall
67
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Lions29%
Cowboys-671%
Quality
35
Importance
49
Overall
42
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Packers-5.568%
Commanders32%
Quality
47
Importance
40
Overall
44
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Colts34%
Titans-4.566%
Quality
50
Importance
86
Overall
68
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Giants37%
Jaguars-3.563%
Quality
29
Importance
73
Overall
51
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Buccaneers-773%
Panthers27%
Quality
41
Importance
43
Overall
42
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Texans24%
Raiders-876%
Quality
7
Importance
11
Overall
9
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jets25%
Broncos-7.575%
Quality
17
Importance
39
Overall
28
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
ChiefsPK50%
49ers50%
Quality
92
Importance
63
Overall
78
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Seahawks31%
Chargers-5.569%
Quality
34
Importance
54
Overall
44
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Steelers25%
Dolphins-7.575%
Quality
24
Importance
30
Overall
27

Monday, Oct. 24

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bears32%
Patriots-568%
Quality
17
Importance
34
Overall
26

Week 8

Thursday, Oct. 27

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Ravens39%
Buccaneers-361%
Quality
88
Importance
50
Overall
69

Sunday, Oct. 30

9:30 a.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Broncos-153%
Jaguars47%
Quality
44
Importance
87
Overall
66
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cardinals33%
Vikings-567%
Quality
60
Importance
78
Overall
69
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Panthers42%
Falcons-2.558%
Quality
5
Importance
35
Overall
20
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bears20%
Cowboys-9.580%
Quality
38
Importance
45
Overall
42
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Dolphins-258%
Lions42%
Quality
31
Importance
44
Overall
38
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Patriots-2.559%
Jets41%
Quality
13
Importance
41
Overall
27
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Raiders45%
Saints-1.555%
Quality
32
Importance
41
Overall
37
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Steelers15%
Eagles-1285%
Quality
45
Importance
13
Overall
29
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Titans-670%
Texans30%
Quality
13
Importance
32
Overall
23
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Giants44%
Seahawks-256%
Quality
19
Importance
80
Overall
50
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
49ers46%
Rams-154%
Quality
77
Importance
96
Overall
87
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Commanders33%
Colts-567%
Quality
21
Importance
41
Overall
31
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Packers28%
Bills-6.572%
Quality
96
Importance
50
Overall
73

Monday, Oct. 31

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bengals-2.559%
Browns41%
Quality
49
Importance
91
Overall
70

Week 9

Thursday, Nov. 3

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Eagles-9.580%
Texans20%
Quality
27
Importance
17
Overall
22

Sunday, Nov. 6

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bills-10.582%
Jets18%
Quality
52
Importance
27
Overall
40
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Panthers21%
Bengals-979%
Quality
31
Importance
28
Overall
30
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Packers-568%
Lions32%
Quality
48
Importance
54
Overall
51
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Colts43%
Patriots-257%
Quality
38
Importance
77
Overall
58
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chargers-463%
Falcons37%
Quality
24
Importance
57
Overall
41
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Dolphins-3.561%
Bears39%
Quality
28
Importance
49
Overall
39
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Vikings-3.562%
Commanders38%
Quality
35
Importance
50
Overall
43
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Raiders41%
Jaguars-2.559%
Quality
37
Importance
78
Overall
58
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Seahawks33%
Cardinals-567%
Quality
30
Importance
78
Overall
54
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Rams33%
Buccaneers-567%
Quality
81
Importance
61
Overall
71
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Titans25%
Chiefs-7.575%
Quality
85
Importance
50
Overall
68

Monday, Nov. 7

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Ravens-360%
Saints40%
Quality
57
Importance
54
Overall
56

Week 10

Thursday, Nov. 10

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Falcons44%
Panthers-1.556%
Quality
5
Importance
37
Overall
21

Sunday, Nov. 13

9:30 a.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Seahawks27%
Buccaneers-773%
Quality
55
Importance
45
Overall
50
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Browns34%
Dolphins-4.566%
Quality
43
Importance
83
Overall
63
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Broncos43%
Titans-257%
Quality
55
Importance
87
Overall
71
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Lions46%
Bears-154%
Quality
8
Importance
38
Overall
23
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Texans24%
Giants-876%
Quality
4
Importance
18
Overall
11
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jaguars23%
Chiefs-8.577%
Quality
76
Importance
49
Overall
63
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Vikings25%
Bills-7.575%
Quality
92
Importance
46
Overall
69
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Saints49%
Steelers-0.551%
Quality
13
Importance
21
Overall
17
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Colts43%
Raiders-257%
Quality
37
Importance
72
Overall
55
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cardinals38%
Rams-3.562%
Quality
58
Importance
90
Overall
74
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cowboys45%
Packers-1.555%
Quality
87
Importance
71
Overall
79
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chargers31%
49ers-5.569%
Quality
73
Importance
63
Overall
68

Monday, Nov. 14

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Commanders19%
Eagles-1081%
Quality
51
Importance
31
Overall
41

Week 11

Thursday, Nov. 17

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Titans33%
Packers-567%
Quality
77
Importance
63
Overall
70

Sunday, Nov. 20

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Panthers17%
Ravens-1183%
Quality
35
Importance
23
Overall
29
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bears43%
Falcons-257%
Quality
6
Importance
48
Overall
27
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Browns16%
Bills-11.584%
Quality
74
Importance
38
Overall
56
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Lions39%
Giants-361%
Quality
16
Importance
58
Overall
37
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Rams-154%
Saints46%
Quality
47
Importance
77
Overall
62
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jets28%
Patriots-6.572%
Quality
14
Importance
34
Overall
24
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Eagles-3.562%
Colts38%
Quality
71
Importance
79
Overall
75
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Commanders-154%
Texans46%
Quality
2
Importance
10
Overall
6
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Raiders39%
Broncos-361%
Quality
43
Importance
83
Overall
63
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cowboys49%
Vikings-0.551%
Quality
79
Importance
80
Overall
80
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chiefs-360%
Chargers40%
Quality
83
Importance
91
Overall
87
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bengals-670%
Steelers30%
Quality
32
Importance
44
Overall
38

Monday, Nov. 21

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
49ers-3.562%
Cardinals38%
Quality
69
Importance
92
Overall
81

Week 12

Thursday, Nov. 24

12:30 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bills-8.578%
Lions22%
Quality
67
Importance
34
Overall
51
4:30 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Giants24%
Cowboys-876%
Quality
55
Importance
73
Overall
64
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Patriots34%
Vikings-4.566%
Quality
54
Importance
56
Overall
55

Sunday, Nov. 27

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Falcons40%
Commanders-360%
Quality
7
Importance
37
Overall
22
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Ravens-153%
Jaguars47%
Quality
63
Importance
86
Overall
75
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bears46%
Jets-154%
Quality
4
Importance
28
Overall
16
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bengals48%
Titans-0.552%
Quality
70
Importance
90
Overall
80
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Broncos-2.559%
Panthers41%
Quality
20
Importance
47
Overall
34
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Texans15%
Dolphins-1285%
Quality
16
Importance
15
Overall
16
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Buccaneers-1.555%
Browns45%
Quality
82
Importance
60
Overall
71
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chargers45%
Cardinals-1.555%
Quality
53
Importance
80
Overall
67
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Raiders46%
Seahawks-154%
Quality
25
Importance
53
Overall
39
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Rams29%
Chiefs-6.571%
Quality
86
Importance
57
Overall
72
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Saints26%
49ers-7.574%
Quality
58
Importance
56
Overall
57
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Packers39%
Eagles-361%
Quality
91
Importance
90
Overall
91

Monday, Nov. 28

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Steelers30%
Colts-670%
Quality
17
Importance
36
Overall
27

Week 13

Thursday, Dec. 1

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bills-670%
Patriots30%
Quality
82
Importance
69
Overall
76

Sunday, Dec. 4

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Browns-6.572%
Texans28%
Quality
15
Importance
27
Overall
21
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Broncos32%
Ravens-5.568%
Quality
69
Importance
84
Overall
77
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Packers-670%
Bears30%
Quality
42
Importance
61
Overall
52
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jaguars-0.552%
Lions48%
Quality
22
Importance
57
Overall
40
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jets21%
Vikings-979%
Quality
23
Importance
28
Overall
26
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Steelers42%
Falcons-258%
Quality
5
Importance
22
Overall
14
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Titans31%
Eagles-5.569%
Quality
80
Importance
65
Overall
73
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Commanders38%
Giants-3.562%
Quality
15
Importance
62
Overall
39
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Dolphins38%
49ers-3.562%
Quality
80
Importance
63
Overall
72
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Seahawks29%
Rams-6.571%
Quality
39
Importance
83
Overall
61
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chiefs-154%
Bengals46%
Quality
90
Importance
83
Overall
87
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chargers49%
Raiders-0.551%
Quality
47
Importance
85
Overall
66
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Colts29%
Cowboys-6.571%
Quality
66
Importance
66
Overall
66

Monday, Dec. 5

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Saints24%
Buccaneers-876%
Quality
63
Importance
62
Overall
63

Week 14

Thursday, Dec. 8

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Raiders35%
Rams-4.565%
Quality
52
Importance
66
Overall
59

Sunday, Dec. 11

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Ravens-670%
Steelers30%
Quality
36
Importance
46
Overall
41
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Browns41%
Bengals-2.559%
Quality
74
Importance
94
Overall
84
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Texans14%
Cowboys-12.586%
Quality
21
Importance
13
Overall
17
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jaguars37%
Titans-463%
Quality
50
Importance
96
Overall
73
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Vikings-361%
Lions39%
Quality
36
Importance
59
Overall
48
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jets11%
Bills-14.589%
Quality
52
Importance
16
Overall
34
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Eagles-567%
Giants33%
Quality
62
Importance
84
Overall
73
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Dolphins47%
Chargers-153%
Quality
67
Importance
87
Overall
77
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Panthers39%
Seahawks-361%
Quality
9
Importance
38
Overall
24
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Buccaneers45%
49ers-1.555%
Quality
88
Importance
61
Overall
75
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chiefs-3.563%
Broncos37%
Quality
80
Importance
91
Overall
86

Monday, Dec. 12

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Patriots36%
Cardinals-464%
Quality
43
Importance
64
Overall
54

Week 15

Thursday, Dec. 15

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
49ers-464%
Seahawks36%
Quality
50
Importance
82
Overall
66

Sunday, Dec. 18

Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Falcons34%
Saints-4.566%
Quality
14
Importance
51
Overall
33
Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Ravens48%
Browns-0.552%
Quality
78
Importance
93
Overall
86
Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Colts37%
Vikings-3.563%
Quality
55
Importance
73
Overall
64
Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Dolphins26%
Bills-774%
Quality
93
Importance
96
Overall
95
Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Giants44%
Commanders-1.556%
Quality
15
Importance
64
Overall
40
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cowboys-258%
Jaguars42%
Quality
65
Importance
78
Overall
72
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Lions49%
JetsPK51%
Quality
5
Importance
23
Overall
14
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chiefs-10.582%
Texans18%
Quality
32
Importance
14
Overall
23
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Eagles-670%
Bears30%
Quality
47
Importance
59
Overall
53
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Steelers43%
Panthers-257%
Quality
5
Importance
12
Overall
9
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cardinals42%
Broncos-258%
Quality
49
Importance
79
Overall
64
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bengals36%
Buccaneers-464%
Quality
85
Importance
61
Overall
73
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Titans43%
Chargers-257%
Quality
60
Importance
91
Overall
76
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Patriots42%
Raiders-258%
Quality
37
Importance
67
Overall
52

Monday, Dec. 19

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Rams31%
Packers-5.569%
Quality
79
Importance
78
Overall
79

Week 16

Thursday, Dec. 22

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jaguars-2.559%
Jets41%
Quality
14
Importance
62
Overall
38

Saturday, Dec. 24

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Falcons20%
Ravens-9.580%
Quality
38
Importance
41
Overall
40
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bills-9.579%
Bears21%
Quality
60
Importance
35
Overall
48
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bengals-154%
Patriots46%
Quality
58
Importance
85
Overall
72
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Lions47%
Panthers-153%
Quality
7
Importance
24
Overall
16
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Texans19%
Titans-1081%
Quality
13
Importance
27
Overall
20
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Saints31%
Browns-5.569%
Quality
48
Importance
51
Overall
50
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Giants29%
Vikings-671%
Quality
45
Importance
81
Overall
63
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Seahawks18%
Chiefs-10.582%
Quality
63
Importance
35
Overall
49
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Commanders21%
49ers-9.579%
Quality
44
Importance
43
Overall
44
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Eagles46%
Cowboys-154%
Quality
90
Importance
95
Overall
93
8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Raiders-1.555%
Steelers45%
Quality
17
Importance
33
Overall
25

Sunday, Dec. 25

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Packers48%
Dolphins-0.552%
Quality
82
Importance
65
Overall
74
4:30 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Broncos38%
Rams-3.562%
Quality
58
Importance
82
Overall
70
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Buccaneers-257%
Cardinals43%
Quality
74
Importance
68
Overall
71

Monday, Dec. 26

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chargers47%
Colts-153%
Quality
48
Importance
90
Overall
69

Week 17

Thursday, Dec. 29

8:15 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cowboys-0.552%
Titans48%
Quality
75
Importance
77
Overall
76

Sunday, Jan. 1, 2023

1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cardinals-258%
Falcons42%
Quality
21
Importance
74
Overall
48
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Panthers17%
Buccaneers-1183%
Quality
41
Importance
38
Overall
40
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bears40%
Lions-360%
Quality
8
Importance
39
Overall
24
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Browns-3.562%
Commanders38%
Quality
35
Importance
48
Overall
42
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Broncos25%
Chiefs-7.575%
Quality
80
Importance
85
Overall
83
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Colts48%
Giants-0.552%
Quality
29
Importance
81
Overall
55
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jaguars-464%
Texans36%
Quality
7
Importance
41
Overall
24
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Dolphins-153%
Patriots47%
Quality
57
Importance
73
Overall
65
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Saints23%
Eagles-8.577%
Quality
65
Importance
50
Overall
58
1 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Steelers20%
Ravens-9.580%
Quality
36
Importance
36
Overall
36
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jets33%
Seahawks-567%
Quality
7
Importance
32
Overall
20
4:05 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
49ers-2.558%
Raiders42%
Quality
63
Importance
64
Overall
64
4:25 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Vikings36%
Packers-464%
Quality
80
Importance
99
Overall
90
8:20 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Rams46%
Chargers-154%
Quality
63
Importance
84
Overall
74

Monday, Jan. 2, 2023

8:30 p.m. EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bills-2.560%
Bengals40%
Quality
93
Importance
86
Overall
90

Week 18

Sunday, Jan. 8, 2023

Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cardinals31%
49ers-5.569%
Quality
69
Importance
91
Overall
80
Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Ravens46%
Bengals-154%
Quality
81
Importance
97
Overall
89
Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Panthers33%
Saints-567%
Quality
13
Importance
30
Overall
22
Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Browns-4.565%
Steelers35%
Quality
29
Importance
44
Overall
37
Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cowboys-567%
Commanders33%
Quality
46
Importance
52
Overall
49
Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Lions21%
Packers-979%
Quality
48
Importance
48
Overall
48
Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Texans23%
Colts-8.577%
Quality
7
Importance
25
Overall
16
Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chiefs-4.565%
Raiders35%
Quality
75
Importance
76
Overall
76
Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chargers45%
Broncos-1.555%
Quality
54
Importance
94
Overall
74
Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Rams-258%
Seahawks42%
Quality
39
Importance
90
Overall
65
Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Vikings-464%
Bears36%
Quality
31
Importance
71
Overall
51
Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Patriots19%
Bills-1081%
Quality
82
Importance
54
Overall
68
Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Giants22%
Eagles-978%
Quality
62
Importance
71
Overall
67
Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jets20%
Dolphins-9.580%
Quality
26
Importance
45
Overall
36
Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Buccaneers-6.572%
Falcons28%
Quality
44
Importance
73
Overall
59
Elo point spreadWin prob.Score
Titans49%
Jaguars-0.551%
Quality
50
Importance
97
Overall
74

Completed

Week 4

Thursday, Sept. 29

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Dolphins-0.551%15
Bengals49%27
Quality
77
How good
are these
two teams
Importance
73
How much will this game affect playoff odds
Overall
75
An overall
rating for
this game

Sunday, Oct. 2

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Vikings-4.566%28
Saints34%25
Quality
37
Importance
68
Overall
53
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bills-154%23
Ravens46%20
Quality
96
Importance
79
Overall
88
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bears42%12
Giants-2.558%20
Quality
12
Importance
65
Overall
39
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Browns-153%20
Falcons47%23
Quality
13
Importance
49
Overall
31
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jaguars28%21
Eagles-6.572%29
Quality
74
Importance
50
Overall
62
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chargers-464%34
Texans36%24
Quality
12
Importance
30
Overall
21
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jets29%24
Steelers-671%20
Quality
6
Importance
13
Overall
10
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Seahawks39%48
Lions-361%45
Quality
10
Importance
42
Overall
26
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Titans43%24
Colts-257%17
Quality
49
Importance
88
Overall
69
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Commanders42%10
Cowboys-258%25
Quality
19
Importance
81
Overall
50
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cardinals-0.551%26
Panthers49%16
Quality
20
Importance
53
Overall
37
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Broncos-0.553%23
Raiders47%32
Quality
41
Importance
68
Overall
55
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Patriots27%24
Packers-773%27
Quality
61
Importance
45
Overall
53
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chiefs41%41
Buccaneers-2.559%31
Quality
94
Importance
45
Overall
70

Monday, Oct. 3

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Rams45%9
49ers-1.555%24
Quality
78
Importance
94
Overall
86

Week 3

Thursday, Sept. 22

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Steelers50%17
BrownsPK50%29
Quality
22
Importance
81
Overall
52

Sunday, Sept. 25

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
RavensPK51%37
Patriots49%26
Quality
67
Importance
85
Overall
76
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bills-257%19
Dolphins43%21
Quality
95
Importance
96
Overall
96
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bengals-256%27
Jets44%12
Quality
25
Importance
36
Overall
31
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Lions30%24
Vikings-670%28
Quality
36
Importance
71
Overall
54
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Texans34%20
Bears-4.566%23
Quality
4
Importance
28
Overall
16
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chiefs-4.566%17
Colts34%20
Quality
75
Importance
54
Overall
65
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Saints-258%14
Panthers42%22
Quality
19
Importance
55
Overall
37
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Raiders38%22
Titans-3.562%24
Quality
34
Importance
49
Overall
42
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Eagles-2.559%24
Commanders41%8
Quality
62
Importance
83
Overall
73
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jaguars26%38
Chargers-774%10
Quality
46
Importance
55
Overall
51
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Falcons35%27
Seahawks-4.565%23
Quality
5
Importance
26
Overall
16
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Packers33%14
Buccaneers-567%12
Quality
91
Importance
66
Overall
79
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
RamsPK51%20
Cardinals49%12
Quality
60
Importance
88
Overall
74
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
49ers49%10
BroncosPK51%11
Quality
71
Importance
68
Overall
70

Monday, Sept. 26

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cowboys34%23
Giants-4.566%16
Quality
14
Importance
82
Overall
48

Week 2

Thursday, Sept. 15

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chargers33%24
Chiefs-567%27
Quality
90
Importance
92
Overall
91

Sunday, Sept. 18

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Panthers36%16
Giants-464%19
Quality
13
Importance
53
Overall
33
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Colts-465%0
Jaguars35%24
Quality
26
Importance
60
Overall
43
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Dolphins40%42
Ravens-360%38
Quality
74
Importance
78
Overall
76
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Patriots42%17
Steelers-258%14
Quality
45
Importance
74
Overall
60
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jets38%31
Browns-3.562%30
Quality
9
Importance
38
Overall
24
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Buccaneers-258%20
Saints42%10
Quality
82
Importance
93
Overall
88
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Commanders-1.556%27
Lions44%36
Quality
21
Importance
63
Overall
42
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Falcons21%27
Rams-979%31
Quality
24
Importance
31
Overall
28
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Seahawks31%7
49ers-5.569%27
Quality
36
Importance
77
Overall
57
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Cardinals42%29
Raiders-258%23
Quality
34
Importance
51
Overall
43
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bengals-4.566%17
Cowboys34%20
Quality
19
Importance
53
Overall
36
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Texans24%9
Broncos-876%16
Quality
20
Importance
33
Overall
27
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bears27%10
Packers-773%27
Quality
46
Importance
67
Overall
57

Monday, Sept. 19

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Titans24%7
Bills-876%41
Quality
86
Importance
42
Overall
64
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Vikings45%7
Eagles-1.555%24
Quality
76
Importance
66
Overall
71

Week 1

Thursday, Sept. 8

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Bills47%31
Rams-153%10
Quality
91
Importance
59
Overall
75

Sunday, Sept. 11

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Ravens-3.562%24
Jets38%9
Quality
34
Importance
51
Overall
43
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Browns43%26
Panthers-257%24
Quality
10
Importance
48
Overall
29
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Colts-567%20
Texans33%20
Quality
21
Importance
51
Overall
36
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Jaguars32%22
Commanders-5.568%28
Quality
18
Importance
41
Overall
30
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Patriots42%7
Dolphins-2.558%20
Quality
56
Importance
85
Overall
71
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Saints-464%27
Falcons36%26
Quality
19
Importance
54
Overall
37
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Eagles-2.560%38
Lions40%35
Quality
33
Importance
64
Overall
49
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Steelers32%23
Bengals-568%20
Quality
56
Importance
75
Overall
66
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
49ers-3.563%10
Bears37%19
Quality
37
Importance
59
Overall
48
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Packers-153%7
Vikings47%23
Quality
79
Importance
93
Overall
86
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Chiefs-257%44
Cardinals43%21
Quality
72
Importance
64
Overall
68
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Giants31%21
Titans-5.569%20
Quality
36
Importance
50
Overall
43
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Raiders36%19
Chargers-464%24
Quality
59
Importance
79
Overall
69
FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Buccaneers49%19
CowboysPK51%3
Quality
84
Importance
67
Overall
76

Monday, Sept. 12

FINAL EasternElo point spreadWin prob.Score
Broncos-257%16
Seahawks43%17
Quality
34
Importance
60
Overall
47

Quarterback ratings

The top quarterbacks for each team and their value in Elo points, which are used in our quarterback-adjusted model. Our ratings are a rolling average of recent performances and incorporate both passing and running. Initial rookie ratings are based on draft position; undrafted rookies begin their careers with an Elo value of zero, while a first overall draft pick starts with an Elo value of 113.

AFC East
AFC North
AFC South
AFC West
NFC East
NFC North
NFC South
NFC West