UPDATED Oct. 17, 2021, at 7:38 PM

2021-22 NHL Predictions

Updated after every game.

Highest quality

By the harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings


Saturday, Oct. 23 7 p.m. Eastern

7 p.m.proj. pointswin prob.
Avalanche1.042%
Lightning1.358%

Most important

By how much the result will affect playoff odds


Saturday, Oct. 23 7 p.m. Eastern

7 p.m.proj. pointswin prob.
Predators1.044%
Jets1.256%

Best overall matchup

By the average of quality and importance


Monday, Oct. 18 7 p.m. Eastern

7 p.m.proj. pointswin prob.
Rangers0.940%
Maple Leafs1.360%

Games in the next two weeks of the NHL schedule with the greatest impact, based on matchup ratings on a scale of 0-100.

Upcoming games

Monday, Oct. 18
7 p.m. Easternproj. pointswin prob.
Kraken1.043%
Flyers1.257%

qualityimportanceoverall
265741
7 p.m.proj. pointswin prob.
Rangers0.940%
Maple Leafs1.360%

qualityimportanceoverall
677571
9:30 p.m.proj. pointswin prob.
Ducks0.937%
Flames1.463%

qualityimportanceoverall
145032
10 p.m.proj. pointswin prob.
Blues1.148%
Coyotes1.252%

qualityimportanceoverall
326146
Tuesday, Oct. 19
7 p.m. Easternproj. pointswin prob.
Kraken1.147%
Devils1.253%

qualityimportanceoverall
134127
7 p.m.proj. pointswin prob.
Canucks1.146%
Sabres1.254%

qualityimportanceoverall
83823
7 p.m.proj. pointswin prob.
Panthers0.939%
Lightning1.361%

qualityimportanceoverall
953263
7 p.m.proj. pointswin prob.
Stars0.937%
Penguins1.463%

qualityimportanceoverall
724860
7 p.m.proj. pointswin prob.
Sharks0.939%
Canadiens1.361%

qualityimportanceoverall
154128
7 p.m.proj. pointswin prob.
Avalanche1.147%
Capitals1.253%

qualityimportanceoverall
924166
7:30 p.m.proj. pointswin prob.
Blue Jackets1.146%
Red Wings1.254%

qualityimportanceoverall
43318
8 p.m.proj. pointswin prob.
Islanders1.151%
Blackhawks1.149%

qualityimportanceoverall
446353
8 p.m.proj. pointswin prob.
Kings0.938%
Predators1.362%

qualityimportanceoverall
266746
8 p.m.proj. pointswin prob.
Jets0.939%
Wild1.361%

qualityimportanceoverall
616362
9 p.m.proj. pointswin prob.
Ducks0.834%
Oilers1.466%

qualityimportanceoverall
244032
Wednesday, Oct. 20
7:30 p.m. Easternproj. pointswin prob.
Bruins1.152%
Flyers1.148%

qualityimportanceoverall
654957
10 p.m.proj. pointswin prob.
Blues0.937%
Golden Knights1.463%

qualityimportanceoverall
813658
Thursday, Oct. 21
7 p.m. Easternproj. pointswin prob.
Avalanche1.146%
Panthers1.254%

qualityimportanceoverall
942459
7 p.m.proj. pointswin prob.
Capitals1.254%
Devils1.146%

qualityimportanceoverall
345444
7 p.m.proj. pointswin prob.
Islanders1.152%
Blue Jackets1.148%

qualityimportanceoverall
437559
7 p.m.proj. pointswin prob.
Sharks1.041%
Senators1.359%

qualityimportanceoverall
84225
7 p.m.proj. pointswin prob.
Hurricanes1.151%
Canadiens1.149%

qualityimportanceoverall
674757
7:30 p.m.proj. pointswin prob.
Flames1.150%
Red Wings1.150%

qualityimportanceoverall
113221
8 p.m.proj. pointswin prob.
Rangers1.043%
Predators1.257%

qualityimportanceoverall
517060
8 p.m.proj. pointswin prob.
Ducks0.936%
Jets1.464%

qualityimportanceoverall
155032
8:30 p.m.proj. pointswin prob.
Canucks1.043%
Blackhawks1.257%

qualityimportanceoverall
157545
10 p.m.proj. pointswin prob.
Oilers1.149%
Coyotes1.151%

qualityimportanceoverall
395647

Completed games

Sunday, Oct. 17
5 p.m. Easternwin prob.final
Stars48%2
Senators52%3

qualityimportanceoverall
245137
Saturday, Oct. 16
10:30 p.m. Easternwin prob.final
Wild51%3
Kings49%2

qualityimportanceoverall
406050
10 p.m.win prob.final
Flames41%2
Oilers59%5

qualityimportanceoverall
537363
10 p.m.win prob.final
Jets49%3
Sharks51%4

qualityimportanceoverall
185938
9 p.m.win prob.final
Blues34%5
Avalanche66%3

qualityimportanceoverall
843459
8 p.m.win prob.final
Hurricanes48%3
Predators52%2

qualityimportanceoverall
774762
7 p.m.win prob.final
Rangers44%3
Canadiens56%1

qualityimportanceoverall
417256
7 p.m.win prob.final (OT)
Lightning47%2
Capitals53%1

qualityimportanceoverall
934267
7 p.m.win prob.final
Canucks49%1
Red Wings51%3

qualityimportanceoverall
63721
7 p.m.win prob.final (OT)
Kraken46%1
Blue Jackets54%2

qualityimportanceoverall
185134
7 p.m.win prob.final
Blackhawks34%2
Penguins66%5

qualityimportanceoverall
544750
7 p.m.win prob.final
Stars37%1
Bruins63%3

qualityimportanceoverall
764460
7 p.m.win prob.final
Senators35%1
Maple Leafs65%3

qualityimportanceoverall
415447
6 p.m.win prob.final
Islanders43%1
Panthers57%5

qualityimportanceoverall
835870
1 p.m.win prob.final (SO)
Coyotes47%1
Sabres53%2

qualityimportanceoverall
84426
Friday, Oct. 15
10 p.m. Easternwin prob.final
Wild53%2
Ducks47%1

qualityimportanceoverall
275641
7 p.m.win prob.final (SO)
Canucks41%5
Flyers59%4

qualityimportanceoverall
236443
7 p.m.win prob.final (OT)
Blackhawks46%3
Devils54%4

qualityimportanceoverall
93823
Thursday, Oct. 14
10:30 p.m. Easternwin prob.final
Golden Knights56%2
Kings44%6

qualityimportanceoverall
583044
8 p.m.win prob.final
Kraken39%4
Predators61%3

qualityimportanceoverall
417256
7:30 p.m.win prob.final (OT)
Lightning59%7
Red Wings41%6

qualityimportanceoverall
411729
7 p.m.win prob.final
Maple Leafs52%2
Senators48%3

qualityimportanceoverall
415246
7 p.m.win prob.final (OT)
Stars43%3
Rangers57%2

qualityimportanceoverall
487461
7 p.m.win prob.final (OT)
Penguins45%4
Panthers55%5

qualityimportanceoverall
865570
7 p.m.win prob.final
Coyotes46%2
Blue Jackets54%8

qualityimportanceoverall
135333
7 p.m.win prob.final
Islanders42%3
Hurricanes58%6

qualityimportanceoverall
895170
7 p.m.win prob.final
Canadiens51%1
Sabres49%5

qualityimportanceoverall
135031
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How this works These forecasts are based on 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. Read more »

Design and development by Ryan Best and Elena Mejía. Edited by Maya Sweedler, Julia Wolfe and Sara Ziegler. Statistical model by Ryan Best and Neil Paine. Additional contributions by Jay Boice.