UPDATED May 16, 2022, at 9:02 AM

2021-22 NHL Predictions

Updated after every game.

Upcoming games

Tuesday, May 17Second Round
Game 17 p.m. Easternwin prob.score
Lightning39%
Panthers61%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
100100100
Game 19:30 p.m.win prob.score
Blues34%
Avalanche66%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
100100100
Wednesday, May 18Second Round
Game 17 p.m. Easternwin prob.score
Rangers37%
Hurricanes63%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
100100100
Game 19:30 p.m.win prob.score
Oilers40%
Flames60%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
9710098
Thursday, May 19Second Round
Game 27 p.m. Easternwin prob.score
Lightning39%
Panthers61%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
100100100
Game 29:30 p.m.win prob.score
Blues34%
Avalanche66%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
100100100
Friday, May 20Second Round
Game 28 p.m. Easternwin prob.score
Rangers37%
Hurricanes63%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
100100100
Game 210:30 p.m.win prob.score
Oilers40%
Flames60%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
9710098

Completed games

Sunday, May 15First Round
Game 7final/OTwin prob.score
Stars33%2
Flames4-367%3

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result altered league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
8510092
Game 7final/OTwin prob.score
Penguins39%3
Rangers4-361%4

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result altered league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
9610098
Saturday, May 14First Round
Game 7finalwin prob.score
Kings32%0
Oilers4-368%2

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result altered league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
7610088
Game 7finalwin prob.score
Lightning4-341%2
Maple Leafs59%1

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result altered league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
100100100
Game 7finalwin prob.score
Bruins38%2
Hurricanes4-362%3

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result altered league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
100100100
Friday, May 13First Round
Game 6finalwin prob.score
Flames51%2
Stars3-349%4

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result altered league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
8510092
Game 6final/OTwin prob.score
Panthers4-250%4
Capitals50%3

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result altered league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
9810099
Game 6finalwin prob.score
Rangers3-342%5
Penguins58%3

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result altered league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
9610098
Thursday, May 12First Round
Game 6finalwin prob.score
Oilers3-349%4
Kings51%2

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result altered league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
7610088
Game 6finalwin prob.score
Wild41%1
Blues4-259%5

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result altered league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
9910099
Game 6final/OTwin prob.score
Maple Leafs42%3
Lightning3-358%4

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result altered league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
100100100
Game 6finalwin prob.score
Hurricanes46%2
Bruins3-354%5

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result altered league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
100100100
More NHL coverage
How this works These forecasts are based on 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. Read more »

Design and development by Ryan Best and Elena Mejía. Edited by Maya Sweedler, Julia Wolfe and Sara Ziegler. Statistical model by Ryan Best and Neil Paine. Additional contributions by Jay Boice.