2021-22 NHL Predictions
Updated after every game.
Upcoming games
Tuesday, May 17Second Round
| Game 1•7 p.m. Eastern | win prob. | score |
|---|---|
| Lightning | 39% |
| Panthers | 61% |
Lightning
Panthers| quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result will alter league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | 100 | 100 | 100 |
|---|
| Game 1•9:30 p.m. | win prob. | score |
|---|---|
| Blues | 34% |
| Avalanche | 66% |
Blues
Avalanche| quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result will alter league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | 100 | 100 | 100 |
|---|
Wednesday, May 18Second Round
| Game 1•7 p.m. Eastern | win prob. | score |
|---|---|
| Rangers | 37% |
| Hurricanes | 63% |
Rangers
Hurricanes| quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result will alter league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | 100 | 100 | 100 |
|---|
| Game 1•9:30 p.m. | win prob. | score |
|---|---|
| Oilers | 40% |
| Flames | 60% |
Oilers
Flames| quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result will alter league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | 97 | 100 | 98 |
|---|
Thursday, May 19Second Round
| Game 2•7 p.m. Eastern | win prob. | score |
|---|---|
| Lightning | 39% |
| Panthers | 61% |
| quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result will alter league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | 100 | 100 | 100 |
|---|
| Game 2•9:30 p.m. | win prob. | score |
|---|---|
| Blues | 34% |
| Avalanche | 66% |
| quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result will alter league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | 100 | 100 | 100 |
|---|
Friday, May 20Second Round
| Game 2•8 p.m. Eastern | win prob. | score |
|---|---|
| Rangers | 37% |
| Hurricanes | 63% |
| quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result will alter league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | 100 | 100 | 100 |
|---|
| Game 2•10:30 p.m. | win prob. | score |
|---|---|
| Oilers | 40% |
| Flames | 60% |
| quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result will alter league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | 97 | 100 | 98 |
|---|
Completed games
Sunday, May 15First Round
| Game 7•final/OT | win prob. | score |
|---|---|---|
| Stars | 33% | 2 |
| Flames4-3 | 67% | ✓3 |
Stars| quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result altered league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | 85 | 100 | 92 |
|---|
| Game 7•final/OT | win prob. | score |
|---|---|---|
| Penguins | 39% | 3 |
| Rangers4-3 | 61% | ✓4 |
Penguins| quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result altered league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | 96 | 100 | 98 |
|---|
Saturday, May 14First Round
| Game 7•final | win prob. | score |
|---|---|---|
| Kings | 32% | 0 |
| Oilers4-3 | 68% | ✓2 |
Kings| quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result altered league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | 76 | 100 | 88 |
|---|
| Game 7•final | win prob. | score |
|---|---|---|
| Lightning4-3 | 41% | ✓2 |
| Maple Leafs | 59% | 1 |
Maple Leafs| quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result altered league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | 100 | 100 | 100 |
|---|
| Game 7•final | win prob. | score |
|---|---|---|
| Bruins | 38% | 2 |
| Hurricanes4-3 | 62% | ✓3 |
Bruins| quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result altered league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | 100 | 100 | 100 |
|---|
Friday, May 13First Round
| Game 6•final | win prob. | score |
|---|---|---|
| Flames | 51% | 2 |
| Stars3-3 | 49% | ✓4 |
| quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result altered league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | 85 | 100 | 92 |
|---|
| Game 6•final/OT | win prob. | score |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers4-2 | 50% | ✓4 |
| Capitals | 50% | 3 |
Capitals| quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result altered league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | 98 | 100 | 99 |
|---|
| Game 6•final | win prob. | score |
|---|---|---|
| Rangers3-3 | 42% | ✓5 |
| Penguins | 58% | 3 |
| quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result altered league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | 96 | 100 | 98 |
|---|
Thursday, May 12First Round
| Game 6•final | win prob. | score |
|---|---|---|
| Oilers3-3 | 49% | ✓4 |
| Kings | 51% | 2 |
| quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result altered league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | 76 | 100 | 88 |
|---|
| Game 6•final | win prob. | score |
|---|---|---|
| Wild | 41% | 1 |
| Blues4-2 | 59% | ✓5 |
Wild| quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result altered league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | 99 | 100 | 99 |
|---|
| Game 6•final/OT | win prob. | score |
|---|---|---|
| Maple Leafs | 42% | 3 |
| Lightning3-3 | 58% | ✓4 |
| quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result altered league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | 100 | 100 | 100 |
|---|
| Game 6•final | win prob. | score |
|---|---|---|
| Hurricanes | 46% | 2 |
| Bruins3-3 | 54% | ✓5 |
| quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result altered league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | 100 | 100 | 100 |
|---|
More NHL coverage
How this works These forecasts are based on 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. Read more »
Design and development by Ryan Best and Elena Mejía. Edited by Maya Sweedler, Julia Wolfe and Sara Ziegler. Statistical model by Ryan Best and Neil Paine. Additional contributions by Jay Boice.
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