UPDATED Oct. 17, 2021, at 7:38 PM

2021-22 NHL Predictions

Updated after every game.

Highest quality

By the harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings

Saturday, Oct. 23 @ 7 p.m. Eastern

7 p.m.	proj. points	win prob.
Avalanche	1.0	42%
Lightning	1.3	58%

Most important

By how much the result will affect playoff odds

Saturday, Oct. 23 @ 7 p.m. Eastern

7 p.m.	proj. points	win prob.
Predators	1.0	44%
Jets	1.2	56%

Best overall matchup

By the average of quality and importance

Monday, Oct. 18 @ 7 p.m. Eastern

7 p.m.	proj. points	win prob.
Rangers	0.9	40%
Maple Leafs	1.3	60%

Games in the next two weeks of the NHL schedule with the greatest impact, based on matchup ratings on a scale of 0-100.

Upcoming games

Monday, Oct. 18

7 p.m. Eastern	proj. points	win prob.
Kraken	1.0	43%
Flyers	1.2	57%

quality			importance			overall
	26			57			41

7 p.m.	proj. points	win prob.
Rangers	0.9	40%
Maple Leafs	1.3	60%

quality			importance			overall
	67			75			71

9:30 p.m.	proj. points	win prob.
Ducks	0.9	37%
Flames	1.4	63%

quality			importance			overall
	14			50			32

10 p.m.	proj. points	win prob.
Blues	1.1	48%
Coyotes	1.2	52%

quality			importance			overall
	32			61			46

Tuesday, Oct. 19

7 p.m. Eastern	proj. points	win prob.
Kraken	1.1	47%
Devils	1.2	53%

quality			importance			overall
	13			41			27

7 p.m.	proj. points	win prob.
Canucks	1.1	46%
Sabres	1.2	54%

quality			importance			overall
	8			38			23

7 p.m.	proj. points	win prob.
Panthers	0.9	39%
Lightning	1.3	61%

quality			importance			overall
	95			32			63

7 p.m.	proj. points	win prob.
Stars	0.9	37%
Penguins	1.4	63%

quality			importance			overall
	72			48			60

7 p.m.	proj. points	win prob.
Sharks	0.9	39%
Canadiens	1.3	61%

quality			importance			overall
	15			41			28

7 p.m.	proj. points	win prob.
Avalanche	1.1	47%
Capitals	1.2	53%

quality			importance			overall
	92			41			66

7:30 p.m.	proj. points	win prob.
Blue Jackets	1.1	46%
Red Wings	1.2	54%

quality			importance			overall
	4			33			18

8 p.m.	proj. points	win prob.
Islanders	1.1	51%
Blackhawks	1.1	49%

quality			importance			overall
	44			63			53

8 p.m.	proj. points	win prob.
Kings	0.9	38%
Predators	1.3	62%

quality			importance			overall
	26			67			46

8 p.m.	proj. points	win prob.
Jets	0.9	39%
Wild	1.3	61%

quality			importance			overall
	61			63			62

9 p.m.	proj. points	win prob.
Ducks	0.8	34%
Oilers	1.4	66%

quality			importance			overall
	24			40			32

Wednesday, Oct. 20

7:30 p.m. Eastern	proj. points	win prob.
Bruins	1.1	52%
Flyers	1.1	48%

quality			importance			overall
	65			49			57

10 p.m.	proj. points	win prob.
Blues	0.9	37%
Golden Knights	1.4	63%

quality			importance			overall
	81			36			58

Thursday, Oct. 21

7 p.m. Eastern	proj. points	win prob.
Avalanche	1.1	46%
Panthers	1.2	54%

quality			importance			overall
	94			24			59

7 p.m.	proj. points	win prob.
Capitals	1.2	54%
Devils	1.1	46%

quality			importance			overall
	34			54			44

7 p.m.	proj. points	win prob.
Islanders	1.1	52%
Blue Jackets	1.1	48%

quality			importance			overall
	43			75			59

7 p.m.	proj. points	win prob.
Sharks	1.0	41%
Senators	1.3	59%

quality			importance			overall
	8			42			25

7 p.m.	proj. points	win prob.
Hurricanes	1.1	51%
Canadiens	1.1	49%

quality			importance			overall
	67			47			57

7:30 p.m.	proj. points	win prob.
Flames	1.1	50%
Red Wings	1.1	50%

quality			importance			overall
	11			32			21

8 p.m.	proj. points	win prob.
Rangers	1.0	43%
Predators	1.2	57%

quality			importance			overall
	51			70			60

8 p.m.	proj. points	win prob.
Ducks	0.9	36%
Jets	1.4	64%

quality			importance			overall
	15			50			32

8:30 p.m.	proj. points	win prob.
Canucks	1.0	43%
Blackhawks	1.2	57%

quality			importance			overall
	15			75			45

10 p.m.	proj. points	win prob.
Oilers	1.1	49%
Coyotes	1.1	51%

quality			importance			overall
	39			56			47

Completed games

Sunday, Oct. 17

5 p.m. Eastern	win prob.	final
Stars	48%	2
Senators	52%	✓3

quality			importance			overall
	24			51			37

Saturday, Oct. 16

10:30 p.m. Eastern	win prob.	final
Wild	51%	✓3
Kings	49%	2

quality			importance			overall
	40			60			50

10 p.m.	win prob.	final
Flames	41%	2
Oilers	59%	✓5

quality			importance			overall
	53			73			63

10 p.m.	win prob.	final
Jets	49%	3
Sharks	51%	✓4

quality			importance			overall
	18			59			38

9 p.m.	win prob.	final
Blues	34%	✓5
Avalanche	66%	3

quality			importance			overall
	84			34			59

8 p.m.	win prob.	final
Hurricanes	48%	✓3
Predators	52%	2

quality			importance			overall
	77			47			62

7 p.m.	win prob.	final
Rangers	44%	✓3
Canadiens	56%	1

quality			importance			overall
	41			72			56

7 p.m.	win prob.	final (OT)
Lightning	47%	✓2
Capitals	53%	1

quality			importance			overall
	93			42			67

7 p.m.	win prob.	final
Canucks	49%	1
Red Wings	51%	✓3

quality			importance			overall
	6			37			21

7 p.m.	win prob.	final (OT)
Kraken	46%	1
Blue Jackets	54%	✓2

quality			importance			overall
	18			51			34

7 p.m.	win prob.	final
Blackhawks	34%	2
Penguins	66%	✓5

quality			importance			overall
	54			47			50

7 p.m.	win prob.	final
Stars	37%	1
Bruins	63%	✓3

quality			importance			overall
	76			44			60

7 p.m.	win prob.	final
Senators	35%	1
Maple Leafs	65%	✓3

quality			importance			overall
	41			54			47

6 p.m.	win prob.	final
Islanders	43%	1
Panthers	57%	✓5

quality			importance			overall
	83			58			70

1 p.m.	win prob.	final (SO)
Coyotes	47%	1
Sabres	53%	✓2

quality			importance			overall
	8			44			26

Friday, Oct. 15

10 p.m. Eastern	win prob.	final
Wild	53%	✓2
Ducks	47%	1

quality			importance			overall
	27			56			41

7 p.m.	win prob.	final (SO)
Canucks	41%	✓5
Flyers	59%	4

quality			importance			overall
	23			64			43

7 p.m.	win prob.	final (OT)
Blackhawks	46%	3
Devils	54%	✓4

quality			importance			overall
	9			38			23

Thursday, Oct. 14

10:30 p.m. Eastern	win prob.	final
Golden Knights	56%	2
Kings	44%	✓6

quality			importance			overall
	58			30			44

8 p.m.	win prob.	final
Kraken	39%	✓4
Predators	61%	3

quality			importance			overall
	41			72			56

7:30 p.m.	win prob.	final (OT)
Lightning	59%	✓7
Red Wings	41%	6

quality			importance			overall
	41			17			29

7 p.m.	win prob.	final
Maple Leafs	52%	2
Senators	48%	✓3

quality			importance			overall
	41			52			46

7 p.m.	win prob.	final (OT)
Stars	43%	✓3
Rangers	57%	2

quality			importance			overall
	48			74			61

7 p.m.	win prob.	final (OT)
Penguins	45%	4
Panthers	55%	✓5

quality			importance			overall
	86			55			70

7 p.m.	win prob.	final
Coyotes	46%	2
Blue Jackets	54%	✓8

quality			importance			overall
	13			53			33

7 p.m.	win prob.	final
Islanders	42%	3
Hurricanes	58%	✓6

quality			importance			overall
	89			51			70

7 p.m.	win prob.	final
Canadiens	51%	1
Sabres	49%	✓5

quality			importance			overall
	13			50			31

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How this works These forecasts are based on 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. Read more »

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Design and development by Ryan Best and Elena Mejía. Edited by Maya Sweedler, Julia Wolfe and Sara Ziegler. Statistical model by Ryan Best and Neil Paine. Additional contributions by Jay Boice.