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How to read political polls in 2024
Not all polls are created equal. Here's 538's guide to interpreting them.
Trump endorsed more Republicans in 2024 than ever before
The former president has taken over the traditional GOP endorsement apparatus.
How Taylor Swift's endorsement of Harris could change the election end game
Swift’s fans largely lean Democratic, but her support could boost engagement.
Early polls say Harris won the presidential debate
But it’s unclear how much, or whether, it will shift the race.
Why abortion was a bigger issue in the Harris-Trump debate | 538 Politics podcast
The 538 crew discusses how the issue of reproductive rights played a bigger role in the Harris-Trump debate compared to the previous debate with Trump and Biden.
How did the candidates perform at the debate? | 538 Politics podcast
ABC News politics reporter Brittany Shepherd shares insight into what surrogates said about the candidates' performance in the spin room after the debate.
Do Americans know Kamala Harris better after the debate? | 538 Politics podcast
538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss whether Kamala Harris was able to define herself to Americans during the debate.
What polling says about key voting groups in the 2024 election
The 538 team discusses what polling reveals about young, older and first-time voters ahead of the November election.
What does economic data reveal about the November election? | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke and Geoffrey Skelley discuss the role economic sentiment could play in the 2024 presidential election.
6 primaries to watch in New Hampshire and Delaware
Both states pick their next governors this year.
What the polls say ahead of the Harris-Trump presidential debate
Americans think Harris will win, but she has ground to make up on key issues.
Customize our 2024 presidential election forecast
Pick the winner in a state to see how 538's presidential forecast would change.
What does the upcoming presidential debate mean for Harris? | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss the importance of Kamala Harris’s first presidential debate.
3 potential sources of polling error in the 2024 election | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke speaks with Ruth Igielnik of The New York Times about potential sources of error in polling.
The 2024 voting landscape is a recipe for confusion
High turnout and new voting rules could cause problems at the polls in November.
Can a smartphone app conduct political polls?
We clear up confusion over ActiVote, a prolific pollster with unique methods.
What issues are the most important to voters heading into November?
538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich talk with Ruth Igielnik of The New York Times about what issues are important to voters and which ones will become hot topics during election season.
How is Harris polling compared to Biden's 2020 performance? | 538 Politics Podcast
Ruth Igielnik of The New York Times talks about how Kamala Harris is performing among swing states and demographic groups.
Harris's candidacy has caused a surge in voter enthusiasm | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke speaks with Ruth Igielnik of The New York Times about how voter enthusiasm has shifted since Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee.
Can you guess how Americans feel about Harris's platform?
Test your knowledge of what the public thinks about the VP’s policies.
Is the Democratic Party a strong party?
Democrats' ouster of Biden shows political parties may still have some muscle.
Harris got a polling bounce before her convention, not after
Trump got a small boost after the RNC, but Harris's candidacy reset the race.
How the latest economic shifts could affect the presidential race
538's Galen Druke and Jeanna Smialek from The New York Times talk about potential economic changes that could impact how people vote in the 2024 presidential election.
How are Harris and Trump talking about the economy? | 538 Politics Podcast
Jeanna Smialek from The New York Times discusses how Democrats and Republicans are tackling issues like taxes and more on the campaign trail.
Economists are optimistic about the health of the economy | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke speaks with Jeanna Smialek from The New York Times about economic sentiment data leading up to the 2024 presidential election.
How did Democrats talk about issues at a DNC devoted to ideals?
The party played to its strengths on issues like abortion rights and democracy.
How 538 is adjusting our election model for Harris versus Trump
We simplified our model and made it more responsive to polling.
3 reasons why racist attacks on Harris could backfire
Data and research suggest they could cost Trump support.
What can Washington state's primary tell us about November? | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke and Geoffrey Skelley talk about how Washington state's primary results could be an indication of a shift toward Democrats in the national House vote.
Can RFK Jr. win a contingent election? | 538 Politics Podcast
The 538 team discusses the likelihood of independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. winning a contingent election, following his exit from the 2024 presidential race.
How public opinion has changed from previous elections | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke and Geoffrey Skelley discuss Vice President Kamala Harris's differences from Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign.
What can Washington's primary tell us about the fight for the House majority?
Democrats could lose a seat in the Evergreen State but make national gains.
Harris says she will 'fight for America's future' on final night of the DNC | 538
The crew reacts to the final night of the Democratic National Convention.
Chicago's young voters talk 2024 presidential election at the DNC
538 senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich speaks with three young voters from Chicago as the 2024 Democratic National Convention takes place.
The Obamas dominate night 2 of the DNC | 538 Politics Podcast
The crew reacts to night two of the Democratic National Convention
Do voters know what Harris stands for? | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke discusses Harris' policy positions, or the lack thereof, with senior elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley, and whether this could be an advantage for her.
How much influence does Harris have on Biden's policies? | 538 Politics Podcast
538 senior elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley talks to Galen Druke about how Kamala Harris is set to establish her own presence outside of President Joe Biden as the 2024 DNC begins.
Who are presidential delegates and what are their roles?
538 senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich explains the role of delegates and how they're selected as the 2024 DNC kicks off in Chicago.
Greetings from the 2024 DNC in Chicago
538’s Nathaniel Rakich takes a look at the history of political conventions in the Windy City.
How do voters pick a candidate? | 538 Politics Podcast
Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, discusses what questions voters consider when going to the polls.
How important is the border for Latino voters? | 538 Politics Podcast
Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, and 538's Galen Druke talk about the importance of Vice President Kamala Harris clarifying her stance on issues like immigration.
Democratic support among Latino voters has shifted since Biden dropped out
538's Galen Druke talks to Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, about a possible shift in Latino voters toward Vice President Kamala Harris.
Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?
538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes.
What are the latest national polls influencing the forecast?
We adjust polls for house effects, mode, partisanship, voter likelihood and third parties and weight them based on their firm’s 538 pollster rating and how often it polls.
Dates | Pollster Sponsor | 538 Pollster Rating | Result | Net result |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sept. 21-24 | 2.9 | Harris 49% 46% Trump | Harris +3 | |
Sept. 18-24 | No rating | Harris 51% 49% Trump | Harris +2 | |
Sept. 21-23 | 2.8 | Harris 50% 44% Trump | Harris +6 | |
Sept. 20-22 | 2.8 | Harris 50% 44% Trump | Harris +6 | |
Sept. 20-22 | 1.8 | Harris 50% 45% Trump | Harris +5 | |
Sept. 19-22 | 2.8 | Harris 47% 48% Trump | Trump +1 | |
Sept. 19-22 | No rating | Harris 48% 47% Trump | Harris +1 | |
Sept. 18-20 | 2.9 | Harris 52% 48% Trump | Harris +4 | |
Sept. 17-19 | 1.8 | Harris 50% 46% Trump | Harris +4 | |
Sept. 16-19 | 2.3 | Harris 50% 48% Trump | Harris +2 |
Sponsor
Latest updates
Our latest forecast shows a toss-up race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Harris has a 55-in-100 chance of winning the majority of Electoral College votes, according to our model on Tuesday, Sept. 24 at 6 p.m. Eastern. That’s barely better than a coin flip! Slim margins in the swing states make this cycle’s presidential race the closest in decades — the outcome could be closer than in any election in nearly 150 years.
Our update reflects tightening in both state and national polls. This Monday’s surveys from The New York Times/Siena College shifted our priors away from the big post-debate bounce that had been evident for Harris in other mid-to-late September polls. And on Tuesday, polls from Quinnipiac University and YouGov showed a race tighter than in their last readings. Our model is also picking up moderate mode effects now in online polls, discounting Harris by about a point in the polls that she appears to be doing systematically better in compared to other modes. All that adds up to a close race — and one where it’s important to look at all the new data and shifting trends carefully and seriously.
538’s forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,” such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. It’s not meant to “call” a winner, but rather to give you a sense of how likely each candidate is to win. Check out our methodology to learn exactly how we calculate these probabilities.
—G. Elliott Morris
How has the forecast changed over time?
The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get new data. Uncertainty will decrease as we get closer to Election Day.
Who’s favored to win each state?
Number of electoral votes and the probability of a Democratic or Republican win in each state. Outlined states are most likely to give the winner their 270th Electoral College vote.
What are the closest races?
Use the table below to sort states by name, forecasted margin of victory or two different metrics of how much influence they have over the outcome.
A state’s tipping-point chance is the probability it will give the Electoral College winner their 270th electoral vote. The Voter Power Index (VPI) is a relative measure of how likely an individual voter in that state is to determine the outcome of the election.
A state’s tipping-point chance is the probability it will give the Electoral College winner their 270th electoral vote. The Voter Power Index (VPI) is a relative measure of how likely an individual voter in that state is to determine the outcome of the election.
What does the path to 270 look like?
Our “snake” chart orders the states by forecasted margin of victory. Scroll to the left or right to see uncompetitive states; more contested states are in the middle. Bigger segments mean more Electoral College votes.
How the popular vote translates into electoral votes
This graph shows the national popular vote margin and Electoral College margin in every model simulation. It shows you how often a candidate wins the Electoral College while losing the popular vote.
What do the polls or fundamentals alone say?
Our forecast is based on a combination of the polls and various economic and political variables we call the “fundamentals.” This chart shows how we get from the polls today to a forecast for Election Day.
Polling average
The state of public opinion today, according only to 538’s average of national polls.
Adjusted polling average
The national polling average adjusted for results of state polls and the effects of party conventions.
Forecast of polling average on Election Day
The adjusted polling average with uncertainty intervals that account for potential movement in the race between now and Election Day. This does not account for the chance that the polls systematically underestimate one candidate.
00
Fundamentals-only forecast
What our fundamentals model alone would predict the popular vote margin to be.
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Our final forecast of the popular vote, based on a weighted average of the polls and fundamentals using the weights above. This accounts for the chance that the polls systematically underestimate one candidate.
Forecast components may not exactly add up to full forecast because of rounding and random sampling. (When combining the components, we take a random sample of simulations from each, and they may not exactly match the full sample of simulations.)
Unusual and not-so-unusual scenarios
The probability of each outcome below, according to our simulations.
Harris wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes) | 20 out of 100 |
Trump wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes) | 5 out of 100 |
Harris wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes | 34 out of 100 |
Trump wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes | 38 out of 100 |
Harris wins the national popular vote | 69 out of 100 |
Trump wins the national popular vote | 31 out of 100 |
Harris wins the national popular vote by 10+ percentage points | 13 out of 100 |
Trump wins the national popular vote by 10+ percentage points | 2 out of 100 |
Harris wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College | 14 out of 100 |
Trump wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College | <1 out of 100 |
No candidate wins a majority of Electoral College votes | <1 out of 100 |
Every state votes for the same party that it did in 2020 | 1 out of 100 |
Election is decided by a recount (winner's margin is <0.5% in a decisive state) | 6 out of 100 |
Election is decided by a smaller margin than the vote share for third-party candidates | <1 out of 100 |
Harris wins at least one state Biden didn't win in 2020 | 55 out of 100 |
Trump wins at least one state he didn't win in 2020 | 78 out of 100 |
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