Latest articles
How to read political polls in 2024
Not all polls are created equal. Here's 538's guide to interpreting them.
Trump endorsed more Republicans in 2024 than ever before
The former president has taken over the traditional GOP endorsement apparatus.
How Taylor Swift's endorsement of Harris could change the election end game
Swift’s fans largely lean Democratic, but her support could boost engagement.
Early polls say Harris won the presidential debate
But it’s unclear how much, or whether, it will shift the race.
Why abortion was a bigger issue in the Harris-Trump debate | 538 Politics podcast
The 538 crew discusses how the issue of reproductive rights played a bigger role in the Harris-Trump debate compared to the previous debate with Trump and Biden.
How did the candidates perform at the debate? | 538 Politics podcast
ABC News politics reporter Brittany Shepherd shares insight into what surrogates said about the candidates' performance in the spin room after the debate.
Do Americans know Kamala Harris better after the debate? | 538 Politics podcast
538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss whether Kamala Harris was able to define herself to Americans during the debate.
What polling says about key voting groups in the 2024 election
The 538 team discusses what polling reveals about young, older and first-time voters ahead of the November election.
What does economic data reveal about the November election? | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke and Geoffrey Skelley discuss the role economic sentiment could play in the 2024 presidential election.
6 primaries to watch in New Hampshire and Delaware
Both states pick their next governors this year.
What the polls say ahead of the Harris-Trump presidential debate
Americans think Harris will win, but she has ground to make up on key issues.
Customize our 2024 presidential election forecast
Pick the winner in a state to see how 538's presidential forecast would change.
What does the upcoming presidential debate mean for Harris? | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss the importance of Kamala Harris’s first presidential debate.
3 potential sources of polling error in the 2024 election | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke speaks with Ruth Igielnik of The New York Times about potential sources of error in polling.
The 2024 voting landscape is a recipe for confusion
High turnout and new voting rules could cause problems at the polls in November.
Can a smartphone app conduct political polls?
We clear up confusion over ActiVote, a prolific pollster with unique methods.
What issues are the most important to voters heading into November?
538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich talk with Ruth Igielnik of The New York Times about what issues are important to voters and which ones will become hot topics during election season.
How is Harris polling compared to Biden's 2020 performance? | 538 Politics Podcast
Ruth Igielnik of The New York Times talks about how Kamala Harris is performing among swing states and demographic groups.
Harris's candidacy has caused a surge in voter enthusiasm | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke speaks with Ruth Igielnik of The New York Times about how voter enthusiasm has shifted since Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee.
Can you guess how Americans feel about Harris's platform?
Test your knowledge of what the public thinks about the VP’s policies.
Is the Democratic Party a strong party?
Democrats' ouster of Biden shows political parties may still have some muscle.
Harris got a polling bounce before her convention, not after
Trump got a small boost after the RNC, but Harris's candidacy reset the race.
How the latest economic shifts could affect the presidential race
538's Galen Druke and Jeanna Smialek from The New York Times talk about potential economic changes that could impact how people vote in the 2024 presidential election.
How are Harris and Trump talking about the economy? | 538 Politics Podcast
Jeanna Smialek from The New York Times discusses how Democrats and Republicans are tackling issues like taxes and more on the campaign trail.
Economists are optimistic about the health of the economy | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke speaks with Jeanna Smialek from The New York Times about economic sentiment data leading up to the 2024 presidential election.
How did Democrats talk about issues at a DNC devoted to ideals?
The party played to its strengths on issues like abortion rights and democracy.
How 538 is adjusting our election model for Harris versus Trump
We simplified our model and made it more responsive to polling.
3 reasons why racist attacks on Harris could backfire
Data and research suggest they could cost Trump support.
What can Washington state's primary tell us about November? | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke and Geoffrey Skelley talk about how Washington state's primary results could be an indication of a shift toward Democrats in the national House vote.
Can RFK Jr. win a contingent election? | 538 Politics Podcast
The 538 team discusses the likelihood of independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. winning a contingent election, following his exit from the 2024 presidential race.
How public opinion has changed from previous elections | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke and Geoffrey Skelley discuss Vice President Kamala Harris's differences from Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign.
What can Washington's primary tell us about the fight for the House majority?
Democrats could lose a seat in the Evergreen State but make national gains.
Harris says she will 'fight for America's future' on final night of the DNC | 538
The crew reacts to the final night of the Democratic National Convention.
Chicago's young voters talk 2024 presidential election at the DNC
538 senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich speaks with three young voters from Chicago as the 2024 Democratic National Convention takes place.
The Obamas dominate night 2 of the DNC | 538 Politics Podcast
The crew reacts to night two of the Democratic National Convention
Do voters know what Harris stands for? | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke discusses Harris' policy positions, or the lack thereof, with senior elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley, and whether this could be an advantage for her.
How much influence does Harris have on Biden's policies? | 538 Politics Podcast
538 senior elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley talks to Galen Druke about how Kamala Harris is set to establish her own presence outside of President Joe Biden as the 2024 DNC begins.
Who are presidential delegates and what are their roles?
538 senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich explains the role of delegates and how they're selected as the 2024 DNC kicks off in Chicago.
Greetings from the 2024 DNC in Chicago
538’s Nathaniel Rakich takes a look at the history of political conventions in the Windy City.
How do voters pick a candidate? | 538 Politics Podcast
Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, discusses what questions voters consider when going to the polls.
How important is the border for Latino voters? | 538 Politics Podcast
Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, and 538's Galen Druke talk about the importance of Vice President Kamala Harris clarifying her stance on issues like immigration.
Democratic support among Latino voters has shifted since Biden dropped out
538's Galen Druke talks to Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, about a possible shift in Latino voters toward Vice President Kamala Harris.
Who Is Favored To Win Minnesota's 10 Electoral Votes?
538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes.
What are the latest polls in Minnesota?
We adjust polls for house effects, mode, partisanship, voter likelihood and third parties and weight them based on their firm’s 538 pollster rating and how often it polls.
| Dates | Pollster Sponsor | 538 Pollster Rating | Result | Net result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 16-19 | 1.8 | Harris 50% 44% Trump | Harris +6 | |
| Sept. 16-18 | 2.6 | Harris 48% 43% Trump | Harris +5 | |
| Sept. 9-18 | 1.8 | Harris 50% 43% Trump | Harris +7 | |
| Sept. 6-9 | 1.8 | Harris 51% 44% Trump | Harris +7 | |
| Sept. 4-8 | 1.4 | Harris 49% 45% Trump | Harris +4 | |
| Aug. 30-Sept. 8 | 1.8 | Harris 51% 44% Trump | Harris +7 | |
| Aug. 27-29 | 2.8 | Harris 48% 43% Trump | Harris +5 | |
| Aug. 25-28 | 1.8 | Harris 51% 42% Trump | Harris +9 | |
| Aug. 12-15 | 1.8 | Harris 47% 40% Trump | Harris +7 | |
| July 31-Aug. 3 | 1.8 | Harris 46% 41% Trump | Harris +5 |
Sponsor
How has the forecast changed in Minnesota over time?
The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get new data. Uncertainty will decrease as we get closer to Election Day.
We forecast the popular vote only for candidates polling at 5 percent or higher nationally, polling at 10 percent or higher in at least one state or who are on the ballot in almost every state. Since Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s withdrawal, only Harris and Trump meet these criteria, so we are effectively forecasting the two-way popular vote between Democrats and Republicans.
What do the polls or fundamentals alone say?
Our forecast is based on a combination of the polls and various economic and political variables we call the “fundamentals.” This chart shows how we get from the polls today to a forecast for [state] on Election Day.
Polling average
The state of public opinion today, according only to 538’s average of polls in [state] and accounting for trends in national polls.
Adjusted polling average
The polling average for [state] adjusted for movement in similar states and the effects of party conventions.
Forecast of polling average on Election Day
The adjusted polling average with uncertainty intervals that account for potential movement in the race between now and Election Day. This does not account for the chance that the polls systematically underestimate one candidate.
00
Fundamentals-only forecast
What our fundamentals model alone would predict the popular vote margin to be.
00
Our final forecast of the popular vote, based on a weighted average of the polls and fundamentals using the weights above. This accounts for the chance that the polls systematically underestimate one candidate.
Forecast components may not exactly add up to full forecast because of rounding and random sampling. (When combining the components, we take a random sample of simulations from each, and they may not exactly match the full sample of simulations.)
How has [state] voted in the past?
The results of the last six presidential elections in [state] compared with the national popular vote.
| 20XX | Dem. | Rep. |
|---|---|---|
| ST | XX.X% | XX.X% |
| U.S. | XX.X% | XX.X% |
See a different contest
Go to a random state
Comments