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Who’s ahead in the California 27th District House ?

An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

KEY

ESTIMATE

95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

SAMPLE TYPES:

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

DatesSamplePollsterResultNet result
Dates
Sample
PollsterResult

U.S. House, CA-27, 2022, General election

Oct. 3-6, 2022
400LV
Oct. 3-6, 2022
400LV
Smith
47%
Smith
47%

Smith

47%

Garcia

41%
41%
Garcia  Smith+6
Aug. 25-30, 2022
600LV
Aug. 25-30, 2022
600LV
Smith
44%
Smith
44%

Smith

44%

Garcia

42%
42%
Garcia  Smith+2
April 19-20, 2022
801LV
April 19-20, 2022
801LV
Smith
45%
Smith
45%

Smith

45%

Garcia

47%
47%
Garcia  Garcia+2
April 19-20, 2022
801LV
April 19-20, 2022
801LV
Quartey
41%
Quartey
41%

Quartey

41%

Garcia

47%
47%
Garcia  Garcia+6

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Candidate is an incumbent

Partisan types

Democratic-funded

Republican-funded

Other party-funded

Campaign poll

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