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Who’s ahead in the California 27th District House race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

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A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

U.S. House, CA-27, 2022

400LV
Oct.3-6
400LV
Smith
47%
Smith
47%

Smith

47%

Garcia

41%
41%
Garcia  Smith+6
600LV
Aug.25-30
600LV
Smith
44%
Smith
44%

Smith

44%

Garcia

42%
42%
Garcia  Smith+2
801LV
Apr.19-20
801LV
Smith
45%
Smith
45%

Smith

45%

Garcia

47%
47%
Garcia  Garcia+2
801LV
Apr.19-20
801LV
Quartey
41%
Quartey
41%

Quartey

41%

Garcia

47%
47%
Garcia  Garcia+6
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