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UPDATED Dec. 2, 2020, at 8:46 PM

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Updated throughout the day.

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Who’s ahead in Michigan?

Updating average for each Democratic candidate in 2020 primary polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

Added Nov. 2, 2020

DatesPollsterSampleResultNet result
President: general election
President: general election Mich.
Mich.
Oct 31-Nov 1, 2020
450 LV
Oct 31-Nov 1, 2020
450LVBiden
50%

Biden

50%

Trump

43%
43%
TrumpBiden+7
President: general election Mich.
Mich.
Oct 29-Nov 1, 2020
383 LV
Oct 29-Nov 1, 2020
383LVBiden
51%

Biden

51%

Trump

44%
44%
TrumpBiden+7
President: general election Mich.
Mich.
Oct 27-Nov 1, 2020
413 LV
Oct 27-Nov 1, 2020
413LVBiden
54%

Biden

54%

Trump

45%

Jorgensen

1%

Hawkins

0%
MoreBiden+9
President: general election Mich.
Mich.
Oct 20-Nov 1, 2020
3,976 LV
Oct 20-Nov 1, 2020
3,976LVBiden
52%

Biden

52%

Trump

46%
46%
TrumpBiden+6
President: general election Mich.
Mich.
Oct 20-Nov 1, 2020
3,976 RV
Oct 20-Nov 1, 2020
3,976RVBiden
53%

Biden

53%

Trump

44%
44%
TrumpBiden+9
President: general election Mich.
Mich.
Oct 30-31, 2020
1,033 LV
Oct 30-31, 2020
1,033LVBiden
46%

Biden

46%

Trump

48%

Jorgensen

2%
MoreTrump+3
President: general election Mich.
Mich.
Oct 22-31, 2020
1,736 LV
Oct 22-31, 2020
1,736LVBiden
52%

Biden

52%

Trump

45%
45%
TrumpBiden+7
President: general election Mich.
Mich.
Oct 26-29, 2020
1,212 LV
Oct 26-29, 2020
1,212LVBiden
54%

Biden

54%

Trump

41%

Jorgensen

1%

Hawkins

0%
MoreBiden+13
President: general election Mich.
Mich.
Oct 24-25, 2020
1,000 LV
Oct 24-25, 2020
1,000LVBiden
48%

Biden

48%

Trump

48%
48%
TrumpEven
President: general election Mich.
Mich.
Oct 10-13, 2020
972 LV
Oct 10-13, 2020
972LVBiden
51%

Biden

51%

Trump

42%

Jorgensen

1%

Hawkins

0%
MoreBiden+9
President: general election Mich.
Mich.
Oct 9-10, 2020
827 LV
Oct 9-10, 2020
827LVBiden
51%

Biden

51%

Trump

41%

Jorgensen

2%

Hawkins

1%
MoreBiden+10
U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Mich.Mich.
Oct 31-Nov 1, 2020
450 LV
Oct 31-Nov 1, 2020
450LVPeters
52%

Peters

52%

James

37%
37%
JamesPeters+15
U.S. Senate
Mich.Mich.
Oct 29-Nov 1, 2020
383 LV
Oct 29-Nov 1, 2020
383LVPeters
51%

Peters

51%

James

46%
46%
JamesPeters+5
U.S. Senate
Mich.Mich.
Oct 27-Nov 1, 2020
393 LV
Oct 27-Nov 1, 2020
393LVPeters
54%

Peters

54%

James

46%
46%
JamesPeters+7
U.S. Senate
Mich.Mich.
Oct 22-31, 2020
1,736 LV
Oct 22-31, 2020
1,736LVPeters
49%

Peters

49%

James

43%
43%
JamesPeters+6

Key

A = ADULTS

RV = REGISTERED VOTERS

V = VOTERS

LV = LIKELY VOTERS

Nov. 1, 2020

President: general election
President: general election Mich.
Mich.
Oct 27-Nov 1, 2020
654 LV
Oct 27-Nov 1, 2020
654LVBiden
53%

Biden

53%

Trump

43%

Jorgensen

1%

West

0%

Hawkins

0%
MoreBiden+10
President: general election Mich.
Mich.
Oct 27-Nov 1, 2020
654 LV
Oct 27-Nov 1, 2020
654LVBiden
53%

Biden

53%

Trump

45%
45%
TrumpBiden+8
President: general election Mich.
Mich.
Oct 30-31, 2020
500 LV
Oct 30-31, 2020
500LVBiden
49%

Biden

49%

Trump

47%

Jorgensen

2%
MoreBiden+2
President: general election Mich.
Mich.
Oct 30-31, 2020
686 LV
Oct 30-31, 2020
686LVBiden
48%

Biden

48%

Trump

46%
46%
TrumpBiden+2
President: general election Mich.
Mich.
Oct 29-31, 2020
700 LV
Oct 29-31, 2020
700LVBiden
52%

Biden

52%

Trump

46%
46%
TrumpBiden+7
President: general election Mich.
Mich.
Oct 25-30, 2020
993 LV
Oct 25-30, 2020
993LVBiden
53%

Biden

53%

Trump

39%
39%
TrumpBiden+14
President: general election Mich.
Mich.
Oct 29, 2020
817 LV
Oct 29, 2020
817LVBiden
52%

Biden

52%

Trump

45%

Jorgensen

1%

Hawkins

1%
MoreBiden+7
President: general election Mich.
Mich.
Oct 25-28, 2020
600 LV
Oct 25-28, 2020
600LVBiden
48%

Biden

48%

Trump

41%
41%
TrumpBiden+7
U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Mich.Mich.
Oct 27-Nov 1, 2020
654 LV
Oct 27-Nov 1, 2020
654LVPeters
51%

Peters

51%

James

44%
44%
JamesPeters+7
U.S. Senate
Mich.Mich.
Oct 29-31, 2020
700 LV
Oct 29-31, 2020
700LVPeters
52%

Peters

52%

James

46%
46%
JamesPeters+6
U.S. Senate
Mich.Mich.
Oct 25-30, 2020
993 LV
Oct 25-30, 2020
993LVPeters
54%

Peters

54%

James

43%
43%
JamesPeters+11
U.S. Senate
Mich.Mich.
Oct 29, 2020
817 LV
Oct 29, 2020
817LVPeters
50%

Peters

50%

James

45%

Dern

2%

Squier

0%

Willis

0%
MorePeters+5
U.S. Senate
Mich.Mich.
Oct 25-28, 2020
600 LV
Oct 25-28, 2020
600LVPeters
47%

Peters

47%

James

42%
42%
JamesPeters+5

Oct. 31, 2020

President: general election
President: general election Mich.
Mich.
Oct 23-30, 2020
953 RV
Oct 23-30, 2020
953RVBiden
54%

Biden

54%

Trump

40%

Jorgensen

2%

Hawkins

1%
MoreBiden+14
President: general election Mich.
Mich.
Oct 23-30, 2020
907 LV
Oct 23-30, 2020
907LVBiden
53%

Biden

53%

Trump

41%

Jorgensen

2%

Hawkins

1%
MoreBiden+12
U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Mich.Mich.
Oct 23-30, 2020
953 RV
Oct 23-30, 2020
953RVPeters
52%

Peters

52%

James

39%

Squier

3%
MorePeters+13
U.S. Senate
Mich.Mich.
Oct 23-30, 2020
907 LV
Oct 23-30, 2020
907LVPeters
52%

Peters

52%

James

40%

Squier

3%
MorePeters+12
U.S. Senate
Mich.Mich.
Oct 27-29, 2020
800 LV
Oct 27-29, 2020
800LVPeters
50%

Peters

50%

James

41%
41%
JamesPeters+9

Oct. 30, 2020

President: general election
President: general election Mich.
Mich.
Oct 29-30, 2020
745 V
Oct 29-30, 2020
745VBiden
54%

Biden

54%

Trump

44%

Jorgensen

1%

Hawkins

0%
MoreBiden+10
President: general election Mich.
Mich.
Oct 27-29, 2020
800 LV
Oct 27-29, 2020
800LVBiden
51%

Biden

51%

Trump

44%
44%
TrumpBiden+7
President: general election Mich.
Mich.
Oct 25-28, 2020
1,058 LV
Oct 25-28, 2020
1,058LVBiden
47%

Biden

47%

Trump

49%

Jorgensen

2%
MoreTrump+3
President: general election Mich.
Mich.
Oct 21-28, 2020
669 LV
Oct 21-28, 2020
669LVBiden
54%

Biden

54%

Trump

41%
41%
TrumpBiden+13
President: general election Mich.
Mich.
Oct 23-26, 2020
394 LV
Oct 23-26, 2020
394LVBiden
59%

Biden

59%

Trump

40%

Jorgensen

2%

Hawkins

0%
MoreBiden+19
U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Mich.Mich.
Oct 29-30, 2020
745 V
Oct 29-30, 2020
745VPeters
54%

Peters

54%

James

44%

Squier

0%
MorePeters+10
U.S. Senate
Mich.Mich.
Oct 21-28, 2020
669 LV
Oct 21-28, 2020
669LVPeters
51%

Peters

51%

James

38%
38%
JamesPeters+13
U.S. Senate
Mich.Mich.
Oct 23-26, 2020
365 LV
Oct 23-26, 2020
365LVPeters
58%

Peters

58%

James

42%
42%
JamesPeters+17

Oct. 29, 2020

President: general election
President: general election Mich.
Mich.
Oct 17-20, 2020
1,000 LV
Oct 17-20, 2020
1,000LVBiden
50%

Biden

50%

Trump

41%

Jorgensen

1%

Hawkins

0%
MoreBiden+8
U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate
Mich.Mich.
Oct 17-20, 2020
1,000 LV
Oct 17-20, 2020
1,000LVPeters
46%

Peters

46%

James

42%
42%
JamesPeters+4
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