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Who’s ahead in the Arizona Senate ?

An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

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Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

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LV

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PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

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A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

U.S. Senate, Arizona, 2018, General election

Nov. 4-5
1,217LV
Nov. 4-5
1,217LV

Trafalgar Group is a partisan pollster for the Republican Party.

Trafalgar Group
 Sinema
45%
 Sinema
45%

Sinema

45%

McSally

47%
47%
McSally  McSally+2
Nov. 3-5
600LV
Nov. 3-5
600LV
HarrisX
 Sinema
49%
 Sinema
49%

Sinema

49%

McSally

44%
44%
McSally  Sinema+5
Nov. 2-3
631LV
Nov. 2-3
631LV
OH Predictive Insights
 Sinema
48%
 Sinema
48%

Sinema

48%

McSally

49%

Green

0%
49%
 McSallyMcSally+1
Nov. 1-3
450RV
Nov. 1-3
450RV
Research Co.
 Sinema
45%
 Sinema
45%

Sinema

45%

McSally

44%
44%
McSally  Sinema+1
Nov. 1-3
758LV
Nov. 1-3
758LV
Emerson College
 Sinema
49%
 Sinema
49%

Sinema

49%

McSally

48%

Green

2%
48%
 McSallySinema+1
Oct. 31-Nov. 2
600LV
Oct. 31-Nov. 2
600LV
HarrisX
 Sinema
44%
 Sinema
44%

Sinema

44%

McSally

49%
49%
McSally  McSally+6
Oct. 24-Nov. 2
1,165LV
Oct. 24-Nov. 2
1,165LV
Gravis Marketing
 Sinema
46%
 Sinema
46%

Sinema

46%

McSally

47%
47%
McSally  McSally+1
Oct. 30-Nov. 1
2,166LV
Oct. 30-Nov. 1
2,166LV

Trafalgar Group is a partisan pollster for the Republican Party.

Trafalgar Group
 Sinema
50%
 Sinema
50%

Sinema

50%

McSally

47%
47%
McSally  Sinema+3
Oct. 27-30
677LV
Oct. 27-30
677LV
Vox Populi Polling
 Sinema
52%
 Sinema
52%

Sinema

52%

McSally

48%
48%
McSally  Sinema+4
Oct. 24-30
1,400LV
Oct. 24-30
1,400LV
HarrisX
 Sinema
43%
 Sinema
43%

Sinema

43%

McSally

48%
48%
McSally  McSally+5
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Republican-funded

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