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Who’s ahead in the Alaska Senate race?

An updating average, accounting for each poll’s quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean.

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

U.S. Senate, Alaska, 2022

1,276LV
Oct.19-22
1,276LV
Murkowski
56%
Murkowski
56%

Murkowski

56%

Tshibaka

45%
45%
Tshibaka  Murkowski+11
1,276LV
Oct.19-22
1,276LV
Murkowski
42%
Murkowski
42%

Murkowski

42%

Tshibaka

41%

Chesbro

17%
41%
TshibakaMurkowski+1
1,276LV
Oct.19-22
1,276LV
Murkowski
41%
Murkowski
41%

Murkowski

41%

Tshibaka

39%

Chesbro

16%

Kelley

4%
39%
TshibakaMurkowski+2
1,282LV
Sep.25-27
1,282LV
Murkowski
57%
Murkowski
57%

Murkowski

57%

Tshibaka

43%
43%
Tshibaka  Murkowski+13
1,282LV
Sep.25-27
1,282LV
Murkowski
42%
Murkowski
42%

Murkowski

42%

Tshibaka

41%

Chesbro

17%
41%
TshibakaMurkowski+2
1,282LV
Sep.25-27
1,282LV
Murkowski
41%
Murkowski
41%

Murkowski

41%

Tshibaka

39%

Chesbro

16%

Kelley

4%
39%
TshibakaMurkowski+2
500LV
Sep.6-11
500LV
Tshibaka
50%
Tshibaka
50%

Tshibaka

50%

Murkowski

50%
50%
Murkowski  Even
500LV
Sep.6-11
500LV
Tshibaka
47%
Tshibaka
47%

Tshibaka

47%

Murkowski

38%

Chesbro

14%
38%
MurkowskiTshibaka+9
500LV
Sep.6-11
500LV
Tshibaka
46%
Tshibaka
46%

Tshibaka

46%

Murkowski

38%

Chesbro

14%

Kelley

2%
38%
MurkowskiTshibaka+8
1,201LV
Jul.2-5
1,201LV
Murkowski
52%
Murkowski
52%

Murkowski

52%

Tshibaka

48%
48%
Tshibaka  Murkowski+4
1,201LV
Jul.2-5
1,201LV
Tshibaka
45%
Tshibaka
45%

Tshibaka

45%

Murkowski

36%

Chesbro

20%
36%
MurkowskiTshibaka+9
1,201LV
Jul.2-5
1,201LV
Tshibaka
43%
Tshibaka
43%

Tshibaka

43%

Murkowski

35%

Chesbro

17%

Darden

5%
35%
MurkowskiTshibaka+7
1,208LV
Apr.16-21
1,208LV
Murkowski
55%
Murkowski
55%

Murkowski

55%

Tshibaka

45%
45%
Tshibaka  Murkowski+10
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Candidate is an incumbent

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