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Who’s ahead in the California Senate ?

An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

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Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

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ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

U.S. Senate, California, 2022, General election

Nov. 4-6
450LV
Nov. 4-6
450LV
Research Co.
 Padilla
53%
 Padilla
53%

Padilla

53%

Meuser

37%
37%
Meuser  Padilla+16
Nov. 4-6
450LV
Nov. 4-6
450LV
Research Co.
 Padilla
53%
 Padilla
53%

Padilla

53%

Meuser

37%
37%
Meuser  Padilla+16
Oct. 30-Nov. 2
802RV
Oct. 30-Nov. 2
802RV
University of Southern California Schwarzenegger Institute for State and Global Policy
 Padilla
63%
 Padilla
63%

Padilla

63%

Meuser

37%
37%
Meuser  Padilla+26
July 22-Oct. 20
208LV
July 22-Oct. 20
208LV
ActiVote
 Padilla
65%
 Padilla
65%

Padilla

65%

Meuser

35%
35%
Meuser  Padilla+30
Oct. 7-10
1,013LV
Oct. 7-10
1,013LV
SurveyUSA
 Padilla
56%
 Padilla
56%

Padilla

56%

Meuser

34%
34%
Meuser  Padilla+22
Oct. 7-10
1,013LV
Oct. 7-10
1,013LV
SurveyUSA
 Padilla
56%
 Padilla
56%

Padilla

56%

Meuser

34%
34%
Meuser  Padilla+22
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Candidate is an incumbent

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Campaign poll

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