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UPDATED Mar. 26, 2019, at 1:16 AM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

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The Oklahoma City Thunder have a >99% chance of making the playoffs and a 2% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Russell WestbrookR. Westbrook211500036SAME
+4.1
+1.4
Paul GeorgeP. George00370037SAME
+3.6
+1.6
Steven AdamsS. Adams00003131+1
0.0
+1.8
Jerami GrantJ. Grant00620026+2
-0.7
+1.0
Dennis SchroderD. Schroder23000023+2
+0.3
-2.0
Andre RobersonA. Roberson000000-20
-1.5
+2.4
Terrance FergusonT. Ferguson02100021+3
-1.3
-0.9
Markieff MorrisM. Morris00013518+1
-1.5
-0.3
Patrick PattersonP. Patterson00015116+2
-1.6
-0.3
Nerlens NoelN. Noel00001111+1
-2.1
+4.2
Abdel NaderA. Nader045009+2
-3.5
-0.8
Raymond FeltonR. Felton240006+2
-1.4
-1.0
Hamidou DialloH. Diallo040004+2
-2.7
-1.3
Deonte BurtonD. Burton200002+2
-2.3
+0.1
Donte GranthamD. Grantham000000SAME
-1.4
-0.2
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+2.2
+2.9
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
54
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1636
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Russell WestbrookR. Westbrook241200036
+4.1
+1.4
Paul GeorgeP. George00352037
+3.6
+1.6
Steven AdamsS. Adams00003030
0.0
+1.8
Jerami GrantJ. Grant00123024
-0.7
+1.0
Dennis SchroderD. Schroder21000021
+0.3
-2.0
Andre RobersonA. Roberson01370020
-1.5
+2.4
Terrance FergusonT. Ferguson01800018
-1.3
-0.9
Markieff MorrisM. Morris00012517
-1.5
-0.3
Patrick PattersonP. Patterson00010414
-1.6
-0.3
Nerlens NoelN. Noel0001910
-2.1
+4.2
Abdel NaderA. Nader025007
-3.5
-0.8
Raymond FeltonR. Felton310004
-1.4
-1.0
Hamidou DialloH. Diallo020002
-2.7
-1.3
Deonte BurtonD. Burton000000
-2.3
+0.1
Donte GranthamD. Grantham000000
-1.4
-0.2
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+2.3
+4.0
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
57
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1666
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Russell WestbrookR. Westbrook241500039+3
+4.1
+1.4
Paul GeorgeP. George00309039+2
+3.6
+1.6
Steven AdamsS. Adams00003535+5
0.0
+1.8
Jerami GrantJ. Grant00428032+8
-0.7
+1.0
Dennis SchroderD. Schroder24000024+3
+0.3
-2.0
Andre RobersonA. Roberson012140026+6
-1.5
+2.4
Terrance FergusonT. Ferguson02100021+3
-1.3
-0.9
Markieff MorrisM. Morris0008715-2
-1.5
-0.3
Patrick PattersonP. Patterson000358-6
-1.6
-0.3
Nerlens NoelN. Noel000011-9
-2.1
+4.2
Abdel NaderA. Nader000000-7
-3.5
-0.8
Raymond FeltonR. Felton000000-4
-1.4
-1.0
Hamidou DialloH. Diallo000000-2
-2.7
-1.3
Deonte BurtonD. Burton000000SAME
-2.3
+0.1
Donte GranthamD. Grantham000000SAME
-1.4
-0.2
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+3.7
+4.2
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
60
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1705
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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