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UPDATED Jan. 15, 2019, at 9:26 PM

2018-19 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:What’s new in our forecastCARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo history

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The Oklahoma City Thunder have a >99% chance of making the playoffs and a 9% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Russell WestbrookR. Westbrook251100036SAME
+4.5
+1.6
Paul GeorgeP. George00335038+2
+2.9
+1.5
Steven AdamsS. Adams00003636+3
+0.3
+1.9
Jerami GrantJ. Grant00031031+5
-0.8
+1.0
Dennis SchroderD. Schroder21000021+2
+0.2
-1.7
Andre RobersonA. Roberson000000-19
-1.5
+2.4
Terrance FergusonT. Ferguson01900019+2
-1.8
-0.7
Alex AbrinesA. Abrines0990018+2
-0.9
-0.6
Patrick Patterson*P. Patterson*000121224+8
-1.4
+0.3
Nerlens NoelN. Noel000000-12
-1.8
+3.8
Hamidou DialloH. Diallo070007+2
-2.1
-0.8
Raymond FeltonR. Felton220004+1
-1.4
-1.0
Timothe Luwawu-CabarrotT. Luwawu-Cabarrot004004+2
-1.5
-0.9
Deonte BurtonD. Burton002002+2
-2.0
-0.1
Abdel NaderA. Nader000000SAME
-3.0
-0.6
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+3.2
+3.2
Adj. rotation ratingsA flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
Adj. rotation ratings
A flagged (*) player is on the court more than expected by CARMELO. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings.
+3.0
+3.0
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
56
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1654
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Russell WestbrookR. Westbrook27900036
+4.5
+1.6
Paul GeorgeP. George00279036
+2.9
+1.5
Steven AdamsS. Adams00003333
+0.3
+1.9
Jerami GrantJ. Grant00026026
-0.8
+1.0
Dennis SchroderD. Schroder19000019
+0.2
-1.7
Andre RobersonA. Roberson05140019
-1.5
+2.4
Terrance FergusonT. Ferguson01700017
-1.8
-0.7
Alex AbrinesA. Abrines01150016
-0.9
-0.6
Patrick PattersonP. Patterson00013316
-1.4
+0.3
Nerlens NoelN. Noel00001212
-1.8
+3.8
Hamidou DialloH. Diallo050005
-2.1
-0.8
Raymond FeltonR. Felton210003
-1.4
-1.0
Timothe Luwawu-CabarrotT. Luwawu-Cabarrot002002
-1.5
-0.9
Deonte BurtonD. Burton000000
-2.0
-0.1
Abdel NaderA. Nader000000
-3.0
-0.6
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+2.6
+4.9
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
60
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1696
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Russell WestbrookR. Westbrook231500038+2
+4.5
+1.6
Paul GeorgeP. George003010040+4
+2.9
+1.5
Steven AdamsS. Adams00003636+3
+0.3
+1.9
Jerami GrantJ. Grant00030030+4
-0.8
+1.0
Dennis SchroderD. Schroder25000025+6
+0.2
-1.7
Andre RobersonA. Roberson010130023+4
-1.5
+2.4
Terrance FergusonT. Ferguson01800018+1
-1.8
-0.7
Alex AbrinesA. Abrines0550010-6
-0.9
-0.6
Patrick PattersonP. Patterson0008614-2
-1.4
+0.3
Nerlens NoelN. Noel000066-6
-1.8
+3.8
Hamidou DialloH. Diallo000000-5
-2.1
-0.8
Raymond FeltonR. Felton000000-3
-1.4
-1.0
Timothe Luwawu-CabarrotT. Luwawu-Cabarrot000000-2
-1.5
-0.9
Deonte BurtonD. Burton000000SAME
-2.0
-0.1
Abdel NaderA. Nader000000SAME
-3.0
-0.6
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+3.6
+5.0
Expected winsWe use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Expected wins
We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
62
CARMELO ratingThen we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
CARMELO rating
Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1724
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

CARMELO rating of the team at full strength vs. the team with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent

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