Get more FiveThirtyEight
- Terms of Use
- Privacy Policy
- Your California Privacy Rights
- Children's Online Privacy Policy
- Interest-Based Ads
© 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. All rights reserved.

More NBA:CARMELO player projectionsEvery team’s Elo historyHow this works

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | TOTAL | vs. full strength | vs. full strength | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | |||||||
| Russell Westbrook | R. Westbrook | 24 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 41 | +2 | +4.0 | +1.1 | |||||||
| Paul George | P. George | 0 | 0 | 33 | 9 | 0 | 42 | +2 | +3.6 | +1.7 | |||||||
| Steven Adams | S. Adams | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 35 | SAME | 0.0 | +2.0 | |||||||
| Jerami Grant | J. Grant | 0 | 0 | 10 | 24 | 0 | 34 | +1 | -0.6 | +0.7 | |||||||
| Dennis Schroder | D. Schroder | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 | SAME | +0.3 | -2.0 | |||||||
| Andre Roberson | A. Roberson | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -20 | -1.5 | +2.4 | |||||||
| Terrance Ferguson | T. Ferguson | 0 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25 | +4 | -1.2 | -1.4 | |||||||
| Markieff Morris | M. Morris | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 5 | 17 | +2 | -1.5 | -0.4 | |||||||
| Patrick Patterson | P. Patterson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | +2 | -1.7 | -0.3 | |||||||
| Nerlens Noel | N. Noel | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | -2.3 | +3.9 | |||||||
| Abdel Nader | A. Nader | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | +5 | -3.5 | -0.7 | |||||||
| Raymond Felton | R. Felton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SAME | -1.5 | -0.7 | |||||||
| Hamidou Diallo | H. Diallo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SAME | -2.8 | -1.1 | |||||||
| Deonte Burton | D. Burton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SAME | -2.4 | +0.2 | |||||||
| Donte Grantham | D. Grantham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SAME | -1.4 | -0.2 | |||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +4.2 | +2.8 | |||||||||||||
| Expected wins | We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Expected wins We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 58 | ||||||||||||||
| CARMELO rating | Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | CARMELO rating Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1681 | ||||||||||||||
| Expected minutes per game | PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | TOTAL | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | |||||
| Russell Westbrook | R. Westbrook | 24 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 39 | +4.0 | +1.1 | ||||
| Paul George | P. George | 0 | 0 | 31 | 9 | 0 | 40 | +3.6 | +1.7 | ||||
| Steven Adams | S. Adams | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 35 | 0.0 | +2.0 | ||||
| Jerami Grant | J. Grant | 0 | 0 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 33 | -0.6 | +0.7 | ||||
| Dennis Schroder | D. Schroder | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 | +0.3 | -2.0 | ||||
| Andre Roberson | A. Roberson | 0 | 12 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 26 | -1.5 | +2.4 | ||||
| Terrance Ferguson | T. Ferguson | 0 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | -1.2 | -1.4 | ||||
| Markieff Morris | M. Morris | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 15 | -1.5 | -0.4 | ||||
| Patrick Patterson | P. Patterson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -1.7 | -0.3 | ||||
| Nerlens Noel | N. Noel | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.3 | +3.9 | ||||
| Abdel Nader | A. Nader | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3.5 | -0.7 | ||||
| Raymond Felton | R. Felton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.5 | -0.7 | ||||
| Hamidou Diallo | H. Diallo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.8 | -1.1 | ||||
| Deonte Burton | D. Burton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.4 | +0.2 | ||||
| Donte Grantham | D. Grantham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.4 | -0.2 | ||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +3.9 | +3.8 | |||||||||
| Expected wins | We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Expected wins We use the ratings to estimate the team’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 60 | ||||||||||
| CARMELO rating | Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | CARMELO rating Then we convert the team’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1700 | ||||||||||
Comments