2021-22 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
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The Cleveland Cavaliers have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength | vs. full strength | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Collin Sexton | C. Sexton | 0 | -32 | +0.1 | -2.0 | ||||||||
| Darius Garland | D. Garland | 38 | +2 | +3.3 | -0.7 | ||||||||
| Evan Mobley | E. Mobley | 24 | SAME | -2.6 | +1.4 | ||||||||
| Lauri Markkanen | L. Markkanen | 29 | SAME | +0.9 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Jarrett Allen | J. Allen | 24 | SAME | -0.2 | +2.7 | ||||||||
| Caris LeVert | C. LeVert | 32 | +2 | +1.0 | -1.2 | ||||||||
| Isaac Okoro | I. Okoro | 33 | +5 | -1.3 | +0.2 | ||||||||
| Kevin Love | K. Love | 19 | SAME | +1.1 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| Cedi Osman | C. Osman | 21 | +11 | -0.7 | -1.3 | ||||||||
| Rajon Rondo | R. Rondo | 15 | +7 | -2.0 | -0.7 | ||||||||
| Lamar Stevens | L. Stevens | 0 | SAME | -2.3 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| Dean Wade | D. Wade | 0 | SAME | -1.4 | +0.6 | ||||||||
| Dylan Windler | D. Windler | 4 | +4 | -1.3 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Brandon Goodwin | B. Goodwin | 1 | +1 | -0.9 | -1.2 | ||||||||
| Ed Davis | E. Davis | 0 | SAME | -3.3 | +0.4 | ||||||||
| R.J. Nembhard | R. Nembhard | 0 | SAME | -2.2 | -1.2 | ||||||||
| Moses Brown | M. Brown | 0 | SAME | -3.7 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +0.8 | -0.6 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 97.9 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 97.9 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 107-107 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 42 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1510 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1483). The weight given to Elo — 26% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1483). The weight given to Elo — 26% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1503 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1507 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||
| Collin Sexton | C. Sexton | 32 | +0.1 | -2.0 | |||||
| Darius Garland | D. Garland | 36 | +3.3 | -0.7 | |||||
| Evan Mobley | E. Mobley | 24 | -2.6 | +1.4 | |||||
| Lauri Markkanen | L. Markkanen | 29 | +0.9 | -0.9 | |||||
| Jarrett Allen | J. Allen | 24 | -0.2 | +2.7 | |||||
| Caris LeVert | C. LeVert | 30 | +1.0 | -1.2 | |||||
| Isaac Okoro | I. Okoro | 28 | -1.3 | +0.2 | |||||
| Kevin Love | K. Love | 19 | +1.1 | -0.3 | |||||
| Cedi Osman | C. Osman | 10 | -0.7 | -1.3 | |||||
| Rajon Rondo | R. Rondo | 8 | -2.0 | -0.7 | |||||
| Lamar Stevens | L. Stevens | 0 | -2.3 | -0.3 | |||||
| Dean Wade | D. Wade | 0 | -1.4 | +0.6 | |||||
| Dylan Windler | D. Windler | 0 | -1.3 | +0.1 | |||||
| Brandon Goodwin | B. Goodwin | 0 | -0.9 | -1.2 | |||||
| Ed Davis | E. Davis | 0 | -3.3 | +0.4 | |||||
| R.J. Nembhard | R. Nembhard | 0 | -2.2 | -1.2 | |||||
| Moses Brown | M. Brown | 0 | -3.7 | 0.0 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +1.4 | -1.3 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 97.9 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 97.9 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 108-108 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 41 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1505 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1483). The weight given to Elo — 21% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1483). The weight given to Elo — 21% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1500 | ||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1503 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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