2022-23 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
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The Philadelphia 76ers have a 100% chance of making the playoffs and a 13% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Joel Embiid | J. Embiid | 28 | -7 | +3.8 | +4.1 | ||||||||
| James Harden | J. Harden | 33 | -4 | +5.0 | -0.2 | ||||||||
| De'Anthony Melton | D. Melton | 26 | -2 | +0.6 | +1.5 | ||||||||
| Tobias Harris | T. Harris | 29 | -4 | 0.0 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Tyrese Maxey | T. Maxey | 31 | -2 | +2.0 | -1.3 | ||||||||
| P.J. Tucker | P. Tucker | 19 | SAME | -3.0 | +0.2 | ||||||||
| Jalen McDaniels | J. McDaniels | 15 | -3 | -1.1 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Georges Niang | G. Niang | 17 | +3 | -0.2 | -1.5 | ||||||||
| Shake Milton | S. Milton | 12 | +7 | -0.3 | -1.3 | ||||||||
| Danuel House Jr. | D. House Jr. | 8 | +3 | -2.0 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Montrezl Harrell | M. Harrell | 4 | -1 | -0.2 | +1.4 | ||||||||
| Paul Reed | P. Reed | 8 | +4 | -1.0 | +1.7 | ||||||||
| Dewayne Dedmon | D. Dedmon | 6 | +2 | -3.2 | +0.3 | ||||||||
| Furkan Korkmaz | F. Korkmaz | 2 | +2 | -0.7 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Mac McClung | M. McClung | 0 | SAME | -1.6 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Jaden Springer | J. Springer | 2 | +2 | -0.1 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Louis King | L. King | 0 | SAME | -0.9 | -0.2 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +3.7 | +1.1 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 100.5 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 100.5 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 113-108 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 54 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1628 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1651). The weight given to Elo — 46% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1651). The weight given to Elo — 46% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1639 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Exp. min. per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | |||||
| Joel Embiid | J. Embiid | 35 | +3.8 | +4.1 | |||||
| James Harden | J. Harden | 37 | +5.0 | -0.2 | |||||
| De'Anthony Melton | D. Melton | 28 | +0.6 | +1.5 | |||||
| Tobias Harris | T. Harris | 33 | 0.0 | -0.4 | |||||
| Tyrese Maxey | T. Maxey | 33 | +2.0 | -1.3 | |||||
| P.J. Tucker | P. Tucker | 19 | -3.0 | +0.2 | |||||
| Jalen McDaniels | J. McDaniels | 18 | -1.1 | 0.0 | |||||
| Georges Niang | G. Niang | 14 | -0.2 | -1.5 | |||||
| Shake Milton | S. Milton | 5 | -0.3 | -1.3 | |||||
| Danuel House Jr. | D. House Jr. | 5 | -2.0 | -0.9 | |||||
| Montrezl Harrell | M. Harrell | 5 | -0.2 | +1.4 | |||||
| Paul Reed | P. Reed | 4 | -1.0 | +1.7 | |||||
| Dewayne Dedmon | D. Dedmon | 4 | -3.2 | +0.3 | |||||
| Furkan Korkmaz | F. Korkmaz | 0 | -0.7 | -0.6 | |||||
| Mac McClung | M. McClung | 0 | -1.6 | -0.6 | |||||
| Jaden Springer | J. Springer | 0 | -0.1 | -0.9 | |||||
| Louis King | L. King | 0 | -0.9 | -0.2 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +4.9 | +1.8 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 100.5 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 100.5 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 114-107 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 58 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1674 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1651). The weight given to Elo — 36% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1651). The weight given to Elo — 36% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1666 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Joel Embiid | J. Embiid | 37 | +2 | +3.7 | +4.3 | ||||||||
| James Harden | J. Harden | 38 | +1 | +5.1 | -0.1 | ||||||||
| De'Anthony Melton | D. Melton | 27 | -1 | +0.4 | +1.5 | ||||||||
| Tobias Harris | T. Harris | 33 | SAME | +0.1 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Tyrese Maxey | T. Maxey | 34 | +1 | +2.0 | -1.2 | ||||||||
| P.J. Tucker | P. Tucker | 19 | SAME | -2.1 | +0.4 | ||||||||
| Jalen McDaniels | J. McDaniels | 18 | SAME | -1.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Georges Niang | G. Niang | 14 | SAME | -0.2 | -1.5 | ||||||||
| Shake Milton | S. Milton | 5 | SAME | -0.2 | -1.3 | ||||||||
| Danuel House Jr. | D. House Jr. | 4 | -1 | -2.0 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Montrezl Harrell | M. Harrell | 4 | -1 | -0.4 | +1.3 | ||||||||
| Paul Reed | P. Reed | 3 | -1 | -0.9 | +1.8 | ||||||||
| Dewayne Dedmon | D. Dedmon | 4 | SAME | -3.3 | +0.3 | ||||||||
| Furkan Korkmaz | F. Korkmaz | 0 | SAME | -0.7 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Mac McClung | M. McClung | 0 | SAME | -1.4 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Jaden Springer | J. Springer | 0 | SAME | -0.1 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Louis King | L. King | 0 | SAME | -0.8 | -0.1 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +6.1 | +2.4 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 96.9 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 96.9 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 111-103 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 60 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1705 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1651). The weight given to Elo — 35% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1651). The weight given to Elo — 35% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1686 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1699 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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