2022-23 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
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The Cleveland Cavaliers have a 100% chance of making the playoffs and a 4% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Donovan Mitchell | D. Mitchell | 32 | -3 | +5.1 | -1.5 | ||||||||
| Darius Garland | D. Garland | 33 | -1 | +4.1 | +0.3 | ||||||||
| Evan Mobley | E. Mobley | 33 | +1 | -1.3 | +1.1 | ||||||||
| Jarrett Allen | J. Allen | 30 | -1 | -0.4 | +2.0 | ||||||||
| Isaac Okoro | I. Okoro | 20 | -3 | -0.8 | +0.5 | ||||||||
| Caris LeVert | C. LeVert | 22 | +4 | +0.1 | +0.5 | ||||||||
| Lamar Stevens | L. Stevens | 16 | -2 | -2.6 | +0.3 | ||||||||
| Dean Wade | D. Wade | 8 | -6 | -2.0 | +1.2 | ||||||||
| Cedi Osman | C. Osman | 15 | +1 | -0.3 | -0.2 | ||||||||
| Ricky Rubio | R. Rubio | 15 | +1 | -0.9 | +2.3 | ||||||||
| Danny Green | D. Green | 4 | SAME | -1.1 | +1.4 | ||||||||
| Robin Lopez | R. Lopez | 3 | SAME | -4.2 | -1.3 | ||||||||
| Raul Neto | R. Neto | 2 | +2 | -0.4 | +0.6 | ||||||||
| Dylan Windler | D. Windler | 2 | +2 | -0.8 | -0.2 | ||||||||
| Isaiah Mobley | I. Mobley | 0 | SAME | -2.2 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Mamadi Diakite | M. Diakite | 5 | +5 | -3.2 | +0.9 | ||||||||
| Sam Merrill | S. Merrill | 0 | SAME | +0.2 | -0.7 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +2.0 | +2.2 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 100.7 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 100.7 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 111-107 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 52 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1612 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1625). The weight given to Elo — 48% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1625). The weight given to Elo — 48% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1619 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Exp. min. per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | |||||
| Donovan Mitchell | D. Mitchell | 35 | +5.1 | -1.5 | |||||
| Darius Garland | D. Garland | 34 | +4.1 | +0.3 | |||||
| Evan Mobley | E. Mobley | 32 | -1.3 | +1.1 | |||||
| Jarrett Allen | J. Allen | 31 | -0.4 | +2.0 | |||||
| Isaac Okoro | I. Okoro | 23 | -0.8 | +0.5 | |||||
| Caris LeVert | C. LeVert | 18 | +0.1 | +0.5 | |||||
| Lamar Stevens | L. Stevens | 18 | -2.6 | +0.3 | |||||
| Dean Wade | D. Wade | 14 | -2.0 | +1.2 | |||||
| Cedi Osman | C. Osman | 14 | -0.3 | -0.2 | |||||
| Ricky Rubio | R. Rubio | 14 | -0.9 | +2.3 | |||||
| Danny Green | D. Green | 4 | -1.1 | +1.4 | |||||
| Robin Lopez | R. Lopez | 3 | -4.2 | -1.3 | |||||
| Raul Neto | R. Neto | 0 | -0.4 | +0.6 | |||||
| Dylan Windler | D. Windler | 0 | -0.8 | -0.2 | |||||
| Isaiah Mobley | I. Mobley | 0 | -2.2 | -0.4 | |||||
| Mamadi Diakite | M. Diakite | 0 | -3.2 | +0.9 | |||||
| Sam Merrill | S. Merrill | 0 | +0.2 | -0.7 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +2.3 | +2.1 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 100.6 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 100.6 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 111-107 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 53 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1619 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1625). The weight given to Elo — 41% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1625). The weight given to Elo — 41% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1622 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Donovan Mitchell | D. Mitchell | 37 | +2 | +5.4 | -1.6 | ||||||||
| Darius Garland | D. Garland | 37 | +3 | +4.1 | +0.3 | ||||||||
| Evan Mobley | E. Mobley | 36 | +4 | -1.3 | +1.1 | ||||||||
| Jarrett Allen | J. Allen | 34 | +3 | -0.4 | +2.0 | ||||||||
| Isaac Okoro | I. Okoro | 23 | SAME | -0.8 | +0.5 | ||||||||
| Caris LeVert | C. LeVert | 18 | SAME | +0.1 | +0.5 | ||||||||
| Lamar Stevens | L. Stevens | 16 | -2 | -2.5 | +0.3 | ||||||||
| Dean Wade | D. Wade | 12 | -2 | -2.0 | +1.2 | ||||||||
| Cedi Osman | C. Osman | 13 | -1 | -0.3 | -0.2 | ||||||||
| Ricky Rubio | R. Rubio | 13 | -1 | -0.8 | +2.2 | ||||||||
| Danny Green | D. Green | 0 | -4 | -1.1 | +1.3 | ||||||||
| Robin Lopez | R. Lopez | 1 | -2 | -4.2 | -1.4 | ||||||||
| Raul Neto | R. Neto | 0 | SAME | -0.5 | +0.6 | ||||||||
| Dylan Windler | D. Windler | 0 | SAME | -0.8 | -0.2 | ||||||||
| Isaiah Mobley | I. Mobley | 0 | SAME | -2.1 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Mamadi Diakite | M. Diakite | 0 | SAME | -3.2 | +0.9 | ||||||||
| Sam Merrill | S. Merrill | 0 | SAME | +0.3 | -0.7 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +3.6 | +2.3 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 97 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 97 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 109-103 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 55 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1645 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1625). The weight given to Elo — 40% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1625). The weight given to Elo — 40% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1637 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1639 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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