2022-23 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
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The Memphis Grizzlies have a 100% chance of making the playoffs and a 13% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Ja Morant | J. Morant | 26 | -7 | +5.0 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Desmond Bane | D. Bane | 27 | -4 | +3.0 | +0.5 | ||||||||
| Jaren Jackson Jr. | J. Jackson Jr. | 27 | -1 | +0.5 | +2.3 | ||||||||
| Dillon Brooks | D. Brooks | 25 | -5 | -0.9 | +2.0 | ||||||||
| Santi Aldama* | S. Aldama* | 24 | +3 | -1.3 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Steven Adams | S. Adams | 0 | -23 | +0.2 | +2.2 | ||||||||
| Xavier Tillman* | X. Tillman* | 22 | +3 | -1.5 | +1.3 | ||||||||
| Tyus Jones | T. Jones | 22 | SAME | +1.3 | -1.2 | ||||||||
| Luke Kennard | L. Kennard | 18 | +7 | +0.8 | -1.2 | ||||||||
| John Konchar | J. Konchar | 12 | +1 | -0.1 | +1.9 | ||||||||
| David Roddy | D. Roddy | 16 | +5 | -2.5 | -0.8 | ||||||||
| Brandon Clarke | B. Clarke | 0 | SAME | -0.4 | +0.7 | ||||||||
| Ziaire Williams | Z. Williams | 0 | SAME | -2.4 | +1.5 | ||||||||
| Jake LaRavia | J. LaRavia | 10 | +10 | -2.5 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Kennedy Chandler | K. Chandler | 6 | +6 | -1.6 | -1.5 | ||||||||
| Vince Williams Jr. | V. Williams Jr. | 0 | SAME | -2.1 | +0.3 | ||||||||
| Kenneth Lofton Jr. | K. Lofton Jr. | 5 | +5 | -2.0 | -0.1 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +2.0 | +2.0 | |||||||||
| Adj. rotation ratings | A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | +1.3 | +1.3 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.4 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.4 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 112-110 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 48 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1572 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1598). The weight given to Elo — 45% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1598). The weight given to Elo — 45% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1584 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Exp. min. per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | |||||
| Ja Morant | J. Morant | 33 | +5.0 | +0.1 | |||||
| Desmond Bane | D. Bane | 31 | +3.0 | +0.5 | |||||
| Jaren Jackson Jr. | J. Jackson Jr. | 28 | +0.5 | +2.3 | |||||
| Dillon Brooks | D. Brooks | 30 | -0.9 | +2.0 | |||||
| Santi Aldama | S. Aldama | 21 | -1.3 | -0.4 | |||||
| Steven Adams | S. Adams | 23 | +0.2 | +2.2 | |||||
| Xavier Tillman | X. Tillman | 19 | -1.5 | +1.3 | |||||
| Tyus Jones | T. Jones | 22 | +1.3 | -1.2 | |||||
| Luke Kennard | L. Kennard | 11 | +0.8 | -1.2 | |||||
| John Konchar | J. Konchar | 11 | -0.1 | +1.9 | |||||
| David Roddy | D. Roddy | 11 | -2.5 | -0.8 | |||||
| Brandon Clarke | B. Clarke | 0 | -0.4 | +0.7 | |||||
| Ziaire Williams | Z. Williams | 0 | -2.4 | +1.5 | |||||
| Jake LaRavia | J. LaRavia | 0 | -2.5 | -0.6 | |||||
| Kennedy Chandler | K. Chandler | 0 | -1.6 | -1.5 | |||||
| Vince Williams Jr. | V. Williams Jr. | 0 | -2.1 | +0.3 | |||||
| Kenneth Lofton Jr. | K. Lofton Jr. | 0 | -2.0 | -0.1 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +3.4 | +3.0 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.5 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.5 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 115-108 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 57 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1670 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1598). The weight given to Elo — 27% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1598). The weight given to Elo — 27% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1651 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Ja Morant | J. Morant | 35 | +2 | +5.2 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Desmond Bane | D. Bane | 34 | +3 | +3.2 | +0.6 | ||||||||
| Jaren Jackson Jr. | J. Jackson Jr. | 29 | +1 | +0.5 | +2.3 | ||||||||
| Dillon Brooks | D. Brooks | 31 | +1 | -0.9 | +2.0 | ||||||||
| Santi Aldama | S. Aldama | 17 | -4 | -1.2 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Steven Adams | S. Adams | 25 | +2 | +0.1 | +2.1 | ||||||||
| Xavier Tillman | X. Tillman | 17 | -2 | -1.6 | +1.3 | ||||||||
| Tyus Jones | T. Jones | 22 | SAME | +1.3 | -1.2 | ||||||||
| Luke Kennard | L. Kennard | 10 | -1 | +0.8 | -1.2 | ||||||||
| John Konchar | J. Konchar | 10 | -1 | -0.1 | +1.9 | ||||||||
| David Roddy | D. Roddy | 10 | -1 | -2.5 | -0.7 | ||||||||
| Brandon Clarke | B. Clarke | 0 | SAME | -0.4 | +0.8 | ||||||||
| Ziaire Williams | Z. Williams | 0 | SAME | -2.4 | +1.5 | ||||||||
| Jake LaRavia | J. LaRavia | 0 | SAME | -2.4 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Kennedy Chandler | K. Chandler | 0 | SAME | -1.5 | -1.5 | ||||||||
| Vince Williams Jr. | V. Williams Jr. | 0 | SAME | -2.1 | +0.3 | ||||||||
| Kenneth Lofton Jr. | K. Lofton Jr. | 0 | SAME | -2.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +4.6 | +3.6 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 112-104 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 60 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1699 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1598). The weight given to Elo — 19% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1598). The weight given to Elo — 19% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1679 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1683 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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