2022-23 NBA Predictions
Team ratings, game schedule, playoff odds and in-game win probabilities, updating live.
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The Memphis Grizzlies have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength | vs. full strength | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Ja Morant | J. Morant | 36 | SAME | +4.9 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Desmond Bane | D. Bane | 34 | SAME | +3.2 | +0.4 | ||||||||
| Jaren Jackson Jr. | J. Jackson Jr. | 34 | +2 | +0.5 | +2.3 | ||||||||
| Dillon Brooks | D. Brooks | 31 | SAME | -1.0 | +1.8 | ||||||||
| Xavier Tillman* | X. Tillman* | 24 | +5 | -1.4 | +1.5 | ||||||||
| Steven Adams | S. Adams | 0 | -27 | +0.1 | +2.2 | ||||||||
| Tyus Jones | T. Jones | 20 | SAME | +1.2 | -1.2 | ||||||||
| Luke Kennard | L. Kennard | 20 | SAME | +1.1 | -1.0 | ||||||||
| Santi Aldama | S. Aldama | 18 | +9 | -1.2 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| John Konchar | J. Konchar | 3 | SAME | -0.1 | +1.9 | ||||||||
| David Roddy | D. Roddy | 17 | +8 | -2.4 | -0.8 | ||||||||
| Brandon Clarke | B. Clarke | 0 | SAME | -0.3 | +0.8 | ||||||||
| Ziaire Williams | Z. Williams | 0 | SAME | -2.1 | +1.4 | ||||||||
| Jake LaRavia | J. LaRavia | 2 | +2 | -2.4 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Vince Williams Jr. | V. Williams Jr. | 0 | SAME | -2.1 | +0.3 | ||||||||
| Kenneth Lofton Jr. | K. Lofton Jr. | 1 | +1 | -1.8 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Jacob Gilyard | J. Gilyard | 0 | SAME | -1.5 | -1.3 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +4.1 | +2.5 | |||||||||
| Adj. rotation ratings | A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | +3.9 | +2.3 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.1 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.1 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 111-105 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 56 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1651 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1568). The weight given to Elo — 42% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1568). The weight given to Elo — 42% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1616 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1619 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||
| Ja Morant | J. Morant | 36 | +4.9 | +0.1 | |||||
| Desmond Bane | D. Bane | 34 | +3.2 | +0.4 | |||||
| Jaren Jackson Jr. | J. Jackson Jr. | 32 | +0.5 | +2.3 | |||||
| Dillon Brooks | D. Brooks | 31 | -1.0 | +1.8 | |||||
| Xavier Tillman | X. Tillman | 19 | -1.4 | +1.5 | |||||
| Steven Adams | S. Adams | 27 | +0.1 | +2.2 | |||||
| Tyus Jones | T. Jones | 20 | +1.2 | -1.2 | |||||
| Luke Kennard | L. Kennard | 20 | +1.1 | -1.0 | |||||
| Santi Aldama | S. Aldama | 9 | -1.2 | -0.4 | |||||
| John Konchar | J. Konchar | 3 | -0.1 | +1.9 | |||||
| David Roddy | D. Roddy | 9 | -2.4 | -0.8 | |||||
| Brandon Clarke | B. Clarke | 0 | -0.3 | +0.8 | |||||
| Ziaire Williams | Z. Williams | 0 | -2.1 | +1.4 | |||||
| Jake LaRavia | J. LaRavia | 0 | -2.4 | -0.4 | |||||
| Vince Williams Jr. | V. Williams Jr. | 0 | -2.1 | +0.3 | |||||
| Kenneth Lofton Jr. | K. Lofton Jr. | 0 | -1.8 | -0.9 | |||||
| Jacob Gilyard | J. Gilyard | 0 | -1.5 | -1.3 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +4.9 | +3.5 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 112-104 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 60 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1702 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1568). The weight given to Elo — 26% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1568). The weight given to Elo — 26% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1667 | ||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1671 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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