2022-23 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
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The Charlotte Hornets have a 0% chance of making the playoffs and a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| LaMelo Ball | L. Ball | 0 | -35 | +3.2 | -0.7 | ||||||||
| Terry Rozier | T. Rozier | 24 | -8 | +1.7 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Gordon Hayward | G. Hayward | 26 | -5 | -0.8 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| P.J. Washington | P. Washington | 27 | -5 | -1.1 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Kelly Oubre Jr. | K. Oubre Jr. | 18 | -1 | +0.1 | +0.2 | ||||||||
| Dennis Smith Jr. | D. Smith Jr. | 22 | -1 | -1.9 | +2.1 | ||||||||
| Cody Martin | C. Martin | 13 | -1 | +0.1 | +1.0 | ||||||||
| JT Thor | J. Thor | 15 | +2 | -3.9 | -0.5 | ||||||||
| Svi Mykhailiuk | S. Mykhailiuk | 18 | +5 | -0.6 | -0.5 | ||||||||
| Mark Williams | M. Williams | 16 | +6 | -1.9 | +0.9 | ||||||||
| Bryce McGowens | B. McGowens | 10 | +6 | -3.6 | -1.3 | ||||||||
| Nick Richards | N. Richards | 16 | +6 | -2.1 | -1.0 | ||||||||
| Kai Jones | K. Jones | 10 | +6 | -3.0 | +0.7 | ||||||||
| Theo Maledon | T. Maledon | 18 | +18 | -1.5 | -1.4 | ||||||||
| James Bouknight | J. Bouknight | 7 | +7 | -1.4 | -1.0 | ||||||||
| Xavier Sneed | X. Sneed | 0 | SAME | -1.6 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -4.7 | -0.7 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 106-111 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 27 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1363 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1415). The weight given to Elo — 40% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1415). The weight given to Elo — 40% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1383 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Exp. min. per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | |||||
| LaMelo Ball | L. Ball | 35 | +3.2 | -0.7 | |||||
| Terry Rozier | T. Rozier | 32 | +1.7 | -0.6 | |||||
| Gordon Hayward | G. Hayward | 31 | -0.8 | -0.3 | |||||
| P.J. Washington | P. Washington | 32 | -1.1 | -0.9 | |||||
| Kelly Oubre Jr. | K. Oubre Jr. | 19 | +0.1 | +0.2 | |||||
| Dennis Smith Jr. | D. Smith Jr. | 23 | -1.9 | +2.1 | |||||
| Cody Martin | C. Martin | 14 | +0.1 | +1.0 | |||||
| JT Thor | J. Thor | 13 | -3.9 | -0.5 | |||||
| Svi Mykhailiuk | S. Mykhailiuk | 13 | -0.6 | -0.5 | |||||
| Mark Williams | M. Williams | 10 | -1.9 | +0.9 | |||||
| Bryce McGowens | B. McGowens | 4 | -3.6 | -1.3 | |||||
| Nick Richards | N. Richards | 10 | -2.1 | -1.0 | |||||
| Kai Jones | K. Jones | 4 | -3.0 | +0.7 | |||||
| Theo Maledon | T. Maledon | 0 | -1.5 | -1.4 | |||||
| James Bouknight | J. Bouknight | 0 | -1.4 | -1.0 | |||||
| Xavier Sneed | X. Sneed | 0 | -1.6 | -0.6 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -1.0 | -0.5 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 103.2 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 103.2 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 111-112 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 37 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1465 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1415). The weight given to Elo — 24% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1415). The weight given to Elo — 24% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1453 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| LaMelo Ball | L. Ball | 40 | +5 | +3.1 | -0.8 | ||||||||
| Terry Rozier | T. Rozier | 33 | +1 | +1.9 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Gordon Hayward | G. Hayward | 30 | -1 | -1.0 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| P.J. Washington | P. Washington | 32 | SAME | -1.1 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Kelly Oubre Jr. | K. Oubre Jr. | 25 | +6 | 0.0 | +0.2 | ||||||||
| Dennis Smith Jr. | D. Smith Jr. | 23 | SAME | -1.9 | +2.1 | ||||||||
| Cody Martin | C. Martin | 17 | +3 | +0.1 | +1.0 | ||||||||
| JT Thor | J. Thor | 9 | -4 | -3.9 | -0.5 | ||||||||
| Svi Mykhailiuk | S. Mykhailiuk | 10 | -3 | -0.6 | -0.5 | ||||||||
| Mark Williams | M. Williams | 10 | SAME | -1.9 | +0.9 | ||||||||
| Bryce McGowens | B. McGowens | 0 | -4 | -3.5 | -1.3 | ||||||||
| Nick Richards | N. Richards | 10 | SAME | -2.0 | -1.0 | ||||||||
| Kai Jones | K. Jones | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | +0.7 | ||||||||
| Theo Maledon | T. Maledon | 0 | SAME | -1.4 | -1.4 | ||||||||
| James Bouknight | J. Bouknight | 0 | SAME | -1.3 | -1.0 | ||||||||
| Xavier Sneed | X. Sneed | 0 | SAME | -1.5 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -0.1 | -0.5 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 108-109 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 39 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1490 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1415). The weight given to Elo — 16% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1415). The weight given to Elo — 16% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1478 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1481 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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