2022-23 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
More NBA:Our preseason player projectionsRAPTOR player ratingsBuild your own team
The Utah Jazz have a 1% chance of making the playoffs and a <0.1% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Lauri Markkanen | L. Markkanen | 27 | -7 | +2.4 | +0.4 | ||||||||
| Collin Sexton* | C. Sexton* | 28 | -7 | +0.4 | -1.5 | ||||||||
| Walker Kessler | W. Kessler | 19 | -3 | -0.2 | +2.9 | ||||||||
| Jordan Clarkson | J. Clarkson | 25 | -7 | +2.3 | -1.9 | ||||||||
| Udoka Azubuike | U. Azubuike | 11 | +1 | -3.7 | +1.0 | ||||||||
| Ochai Agbaji* | O. Agbaji* | 24 | -7 | -1.0 | -1.9 | ||||||||
| Simone Fontecchio | S. Fontecchio | 14 | +2 | -3.0 | -2.8 | ||||||||
| Talen Horton-Tucker | T. Horton-Tucker | 17 | +4 | -1.4 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Kelly Olynyk | K. Olynyk | 16 | +3 | -0.2 | +1.0 | ||||||||
| Rudy Gay | R. Gay | 9 | -4 | -1.8 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Damian Jones | D. Jones | 10 | -2 | -2.6 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Kris Dunn | K. Dunn | 15 | +2 | -0.6 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| Juan Toscano-Anderson | J. Toscano-Anderson | 7 | +7 | -3.0 | +0.4 | ||||||||
| Johnny Juzang | J. Juzang | 6 | +6 | -2.5 | -2.1 | ||||||||
| Micah Potter | M. Potter | 2 | +2 | -2.9 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| Luka Samanic | L. Samanic | 10 | +10 | -1.8 | +0.3 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -1.3 | -1.0 | |||||||||
| Adj. rotation ratings | A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | -2.4 | -2.2 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.6 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.6 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 109-113 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 29 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1386 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1435). The weight given to Elo — 30% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1435). The weight given to Elo — 30% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1401 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Exp. min. per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | |||||
| Lauri Markkanen | L. Markkanen | 34 | +2.4 | +0.4 | |||||
| Collin Sexton* | C. Sexton* | 35 | +0.4 | -1.5 | |||||
| Walker Kessler | W. Kessler | 22 | -0.2 | +2.9 | |||||
| Jordan Clarkson | J. Clarkson | 32 | +2.3 | -1.9 | |||||
| Udoka Azubuike | U. Azubuike | 10 | -3.7 | +1.0 | |||||
| Ochai Agbaji* | O. Agbaji* | 31 | -1.0 | -1.9 | |||||
| Simone Fontecchio | S. Fontecchio | 12 | -3.0 | -2.8 | |||||
| Talen Horton-Tucker | T. Horton-Tucker | 13 | -1.4 | 0.0 | |||||
| Kelly Olynyk | K. Olynyk | 13 | -0.2 | +1.0 | |||||
| Rudy Gay | R. Gay | 13 | -1.8 | 0.0 | |||||
| Damian Jones | D. Jones | 12 | -2.6 | -0.6 | |||||
| Kris Dunn | K. Dunn | 13 | -0.6 | -0.3 | |||||
| Juan Toscano-Anderson | J. Toscano-Anderson | 0 | -3.0 | +0.4 | |||||
| Johnny Juzang | J. Juzang | 0 | -2.5 | -2.1 | |||||
| Micah Potter | M. Potter | 0 | -2.9 | -0.3 | |||||
| Luka Samanic | L. Samanic | 0 | -1.8 | +0.3 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +0.2 | -1.4 | |||||
| Adj. rotation ratings | A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | -1.0 | -2.6 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.6 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.6 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 110-114 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 32 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1413 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1435). The weight given to Elo — 14% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1435). The weight given to Elo — 14% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1416 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Lauri Markkanen | L. Markkanen | 34 | SAME | +2.4 | +0.4 | ||||||||
| Collin Sexton | C. Sexton | 26 | -9 | +0.4 | -1.5 | ||||||||
| Walker Kessler | W. Kessler | 24 | +2 | -0.2 | +2.9 | ||||||||
| Jordan Clarkson | J. Clarkson | 33 | +1 | +2.1 | -2.0 | ||||||||
| Udoka Azubuike | U. Azubuike | 8 | -2 | -3.7 | +1.0 | ||||||||
| Ochai Agbaji | O. Agbaji | 19 | -12 | -0.9 | -1.9 | ||||||||
| Simone Fontecchio | S. Fontecchio | 14 | +2 | -3.0 | -2.8 | ||||||||
| Talen Horton-Tucker | T. Horton-Tucker | 18 | +5 | -1.4 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Kelly Olynyk | K. Olynyk | 20 | +7 | 0.0 | +1.1 | ||||||||
| Rudy Gay | R. Gay | 13 | SAME | -1.9 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Damian Jones | D. Jones | 8 | -4 | -2.6 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Kris Dunn | K. Dunn | 20 | +7 | -0.5 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| Juan Toscano-Anderson | J. Toscano-Anderson | 3 | +3 | -3.0 | +0.4 | ||||||||
| Johnny Juzang | J. Juzang | 0 | SAME | -2.3 | -2.1 | ||||||||
| Micah Potter | M. Potter | 0 | SAME | -2.8 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| Luka Samanic | L. Samanic | 0 | SAME | -1.7 | +0.3 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -0.4 | -1.4 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.1 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.1 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 107-109 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 36 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1461 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1435). The weight given to Elo — 23% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1435). The weight given to Elo — 23% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1455 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1457 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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