2022-23 NBA Predictions
Team ratings, game schedule, playoff odds and in-game win probabilities, updating live.
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The Utah Jazz have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength | vs. full strength | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Lauri Markkanen | L. Markkanen | 34 | SAME | +2.3 | +0.4 | ||||||||
| Collin Sexton | C. Sexton | 25 | SAME | +0.4 | -1.6 | ||||||||
| Walker Kessler | W. Kessler | 23 | SAME | -0.2 | +2.9 | ||||||||
| Jordan Clarkson | J. Clarkson | 33 | SAME | +2.1 | -1.9 | ||||||||
| Udoka Azubuike | U. Azubuike | 10 | SAME | -3.9 | +0.9 | ||||||||
| Ochai Agbaji | O. Agbaji | 19 | SAME | -1.1 | -1.6 | ||||||||
| Simone Fontecchio | S. Fontecchio | 14 | SAME | -3.1 | -2.5 | ||||||||
| Talen Horton-Tucker | T. Horton-Tucker | 18 | SAME | -1.2 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Kelly Olynyk | K. Olynyk | 19 | SAME | 0.0 | +0.8 | ||||||||
| Rudy Gay | R. Gay | 12 | SAME | -1.8 | -0.1 | ||||||||
| Damian Jones | D. Jones | 9 | SAME | -2.4 | +0.2 | ||||||||
| Kris Dunn | K. Dunn | 20 | SAME | +0.1 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Juan Toscano-Anderson | J. Toscano-Anderson | 3 | SAME | -2.8 | +0.3 | ||||||||
| Vernon Carey Jr. | V. Carey Jr. | 1 | SAME | -2.8 | +0.6 | ||||||||
| Johnny Juzang | J. Juzang | 0 | SAME | -2.9 | -2.2 | ||||||||
| Micah Potter | M. Potter | 0 | SAME | -2.8 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| Luka Samanic | L. Samanic | 0 | SAME | -1.8 | +0.2 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -0.5 | -1.3 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.1 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.1 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 107-109 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 37 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1463 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1414). The weight given to Elo — 14% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1414). The weight given to Elo — 14% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1456 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1458 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||
| Lauri Markkanen | L. Markkanen | 34 | +2.3 | +0.4 | |||||
| Collin Sexton | C. Sexton | 25 | +0.4 | -1.6 | |||||
| Walker Kessler | W. Kessler | 23 | -0.2 | +2.9 | |||||
| Jordan Clarkson | J. Clarkson | 33 | +2.1 | -1.9 | |||||
| Udoka Azubuike | U. Azubuike | 10 | -3.9 | +0.9 | |||||
| Ochai Agbaji | O. Agbaji | 19 | -1.1 | -1.6 | |||||
| Simone Fontecchio | S. Fontecchio | 14 | -3.1 | -2.5 | |||||
| Talen Horton-Tucker | T. Horton-Tucker | 18 | -1.2 | 0.0 | |||||
| Kelly Olynyk | K. Olynyk | 19 | 0.0 | +0.8 | |||||
| Rudy Gay | R. Gay | 12 | -1.8 | -0.1 | |||||
| Damian Jones | D. Jones | 9 | -2.4 | +0.2 | |||||
| Kris Dunn | K. Dunn | 20 | +0.1 | -0.4 | |||||
| Juan Toscano-Anderson | J. Toscano-Anderson | 3 | -2.8 | +0.3 | |||||
| Vernon Carey Jr. | V. Carey Jr. | 1 | -2.8 | +0.6 | |||||
| Johnny Juzang | J. Juzang | 0 | -2.9 | -2.2 | |||||
| Micah Potter | M. Potter | 0 | -2.8 | -0.3 | |||||
| Luka Samanic | L. Samanic | 0 | -1.8 | +0.2 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -0.5 | -1.3 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.1 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.1 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 107-109 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 37 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1463 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1414). The weight given to Elo — 14% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1414). The weight given to Elo — 14% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1456 | ||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1458 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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