2022-23 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
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The Sacramento Kings have a 100% chance of making the playoffs and a 0.3% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| De'Aaron Fox | D. Fox | 28 | -6 | +3.4 | -1.8 | ||||||||
| Domantas Sabonis | D. Sabonis | 33 | -2 | +2.1 | +0.8 | ||||||||
| Harrison Barnes | H. Barnes | 29 | -3 | +0.4 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Kevin Huerter | K. Huerter | 27 | -3 | +1.8 | -1.3 | ||||||||
| Keegan Murray | K. Murray | 28 | -2 | -0.5 | -0.8 | ||||||||
| Chimezie Metu | C. Metu | 8 | -4 | -1.7 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Davion Mitchell | D. Mitchell | 17 | +3 | -1.3 | +1.1 | ||||||||
| Richaun Holmes | R. Holmes | 7 | -5 | -2.2 | -0.7 | ||||||||
| Trey Lyles | T. Lyles | 15 | SAME | -0.7 | -1.3 | ||||||||
| Malik Monk | M. Monk | 13 | +4 | +1.0 | -2.0 | ||||||||
| Terence Davis | T. Davis | 9 | SAME | +0.5 | -0.5 | ||||||||
| Matthew Dellavedova | M. Dellavedova | 5 | +5 | -1.6 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Kessler Edwards | K. Edwards | 10 | +2 | -1.0 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Alex Len | A. Len | 6 | +6 | -3.4 | +0.4 | ||||||||
| Keon Ellis | K. Ellis | 2 | +2 | -1.1 | +0.5 | ||||||||
| Neemias Queta | N. Queta | 0 | SAME | -2.8 | +0.7 | ||||||||
| PJ Dozier | P. Dozier | 3 | +3 | -1.3 | +0.3 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +2.1 | -2.2 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 113-113 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 41 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1502 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1572). The weight given to Elo — 47% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1572). The weight given to Elo — 47% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1535 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Exp. min. per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | |||||
| De'Aaron Fox | D. Fox | 34 | +3.4 | -1.8 | |||||
| Domantas Sabonis | D. Sabonis | 35 | +2.1 | +0.8 | |||||
| Harrison Barnes | H. Barnes | 32 | +0.4 | -0.6 | |||||
| Kevin Huerter | K. Huerter | 30 | +1.8 | -1.3 | |||||
| Keegan Murray | K. Murray | 30 | -0.5 | -0.8 | |||||
| Chimezie Metu | C. Metu | 12 | -1.7 | +0.1 | |||||
| Davion Mitchell | D. Mitchell | 14 | -1.3 | +1.1 | |||||
| Richaun Holmes | R. Holmes | 12 | -2.2 | -0.7 | |||||
| Trey Lyles | T. Lyles | 15 | -0.7 | -1.3 | |||||
| Malik Monk | M. Monk | 9 | +1.0 | -2.0 | |||||
| Terence Davis | T. Davis | 9 | +0.5 | -0.5 | |||||
| Matthew Dellavedova | M. Dellavedova | 0 | -1.6 | +0.1 | |||||
| Kessler Edwards | K. Edwards | 8 | -1.0 | -0.9 | |||||
| Alex Len | A. Len | 0 | -3.4 | +0.4 | |||||
| Keon Ellis | K. Ellis | 0 | -1.1 | +0.5 | |||||
| Neemias Queta | N. Queta | 0 | -2.8 | +0.7 | |||||
| PJ Dozier | P. Dozier | 0 | -1.3 | +0.3 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +2.9 | -2.5 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 114-114 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 42 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1515 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1572). The weight given to Elo — 39% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1572). The weight given to Elo — 39% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1537 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| De'Aaron Fox | D. Fox | 34 | SAME | +3.3 | -1.8 | ||||||||
| Domantas Sabonis | D. Sabonis | 38 | +3 | +2.1 | +0.8 | ||||||||
| Harrison Barnes | H. Barnes | 31 | -1 | +0.4 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Kevin Huerter | K. Huerter | 29 | -1 | +1.8 | -1.3 | ||||||||
| Keegan Murray | K. Murray | 33 | +3 | -0.5 | -0.8 | ||||||||
| Chimezie Metu | C. Metu | 12 | SAME | -1.7 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Davion Mitchell | D. Mitchell | 14 | SAME | -1.3 | +1.1 | ||||||||
| Richaun Holmes | R. Holmes | 10 | -2 | -2.2 | -0.7 | ||||||||
| Trey Lyles | T. Lyles | 12 | -3 | -0.7 | -1.3 | ||||||||
| Malik Monk | M. Monk | 10 | +1 | +1.0 | -2.0 | ||||||||
| Terence Davis | T. Davis | 9 | SAME | +0.6 | -0.5 | ||||||||
| Matthew Dellavedova | M. Dellavedova | 0 | SAME | -1.6 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Kessler Edwards | K. Edwards | 8 | SAME | -1.0 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Alex Len | A. Len | 0 | SAME | -3.3 | +0.4 | ||||||||
| Keon Ellis | K. Ellis | 0 | SAME | -1.1 | +0.5 | ||||||||
| Neemias Queta | N. Queta | 0 | SAME | -2.7 | +0.7 | ||||||||
| PJ Dozier | P. Dozier | 0 | SAME | -1.3 | +0.3 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +3.5 | -2.7 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 111-110 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 43 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1521 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1572). The weight given to Elo — 38% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1572). The weight given to Elo — 38% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1540 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1544 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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