2022-23 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
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The Orlando Magic have a <0.1% chance of making the playoffs and a <0.1% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Paolo Banchero | P. Banchero | 30 | -4 | -1.5 | -1.7 | ||||||||
| Franz Wagner | F. Wagner | 31 | -2 | +0.7 | +1.3 | ||||||||
| Cole Anthony | C. Anthony | 25 | -1 | +1.1 | -1.0 | ||||||||
| Wendell Carter Jr. | W. Carter Jr. | 27 | -2 | -1.3 | +1.3 | ||||||||
| Markelle Fultz | M. Fultz | 28 | -1 | +0.1 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| Gary Harris | G. Harris | 22 | -3 | -0.8 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Bol Bol | B. Bol | 10 | -7 | -3.3 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Moritz Wagner | M. Wagner | 12 | -2 | -0.7 | +1.0 | ||||||||
| Jalen Suggs | J. Suggs | 18 | +7 | -1.1 | +2.3 | ||||||||
| Jonathan Isaac | J. Isaac | 0 | -10 | -1.0 | +0.9 | ||||||||
| Goga Bitadze | G. Bitadze | 7 | +5 | -0.7 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Caleb Houstan | C. Houstan | 15 | +5 | -2.3 | -1.8 | ||||||||
| Kevon Harris | K. Harris | 8 | +8 | -2.0 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Chuma Okeke | C. Okeke | 2 | +2 | -2.5 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Admiral Schofield | A. Schofield | 5 | +5 | -1.5 | -1.6 | ||||||||
| Michael Carter-Williams | M. Carter-Williams | 0 | SAME | -1.7 | +1.1 | ||||||||
| Jay Scrubb | J. Scrubb | 0 | SAME | -1.1 | -0.7 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -2.9 | -0.1 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.4 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.4 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 108-111 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 33 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1425 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1466). The weight given to Elo — 48% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1466). The weight given to Elo — 48% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1445 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Exp. min. per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | |||||
| Paolo Banchero | P. Banchero | 34 | -1.5 | -1.7 | |||||
| Franz Wagner | F. Wagner | 33 | +0.7 | +1.3 | |||||
| Cole Anthony | C. Anthony | 26 | +1.1 | -1.0 | |||||
| Wendell Carter Jr. | W. Carter Jr. | 29 | -1.3 | +1.3 | |||||
| Markelle Fultz | M. Fultz | 29 | +0.1 | -0.3 | |||||
| Gary Harris | G. Harris | 25 | -0.8 | -0.6 | |||||
| Bol Bol | B. Bol | 17 | -3.3 | -0.6 | |||||
| Moritz Wagner | M. Wagner | 14 | -0.7 | +1.0 | |||||
| Jalen Suggs | J. Suggs | 11 | -1.1 | +2.3 | |||||
| Jonathan Isaac | J. Isaac | 10 | -1.0 | +0.9 | |||||
| Goga Bitadze | G. Bitadze | 2 | -0.7 | 0.0 | |||||
| Caleb Houstan | C. Houstan | 10 | -2.3 | -1.8 | |||||
| Kevon Harris | K. Harris | 0 | -2.0 | +0.1 | |||||
| Chuma Okeke | C. Okeke | 0 | -2.5 | 0.0 | |||||
| Admiral Schofield | A. Schofield | 0 | -1.5 | -1.6 | |||||
| Michael Carter-Williams | M. Carter-Williams | 0 | -1.7 | +1.1 | |||||
| Jay Scrubb | J. Scrubb | 0 | -1.1 | -0.7 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -2.8 | -0.1 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 108-111 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 33 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1429 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1466). The weight given to Elo — 44% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1466). The weight given to Elo — 44% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1446 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Paolo Banchero | P. Banchero | 37 | +3 | -1.5 | -1.7 | ||||||||
| Franz Wagner | F. Wagner | 36 | +3 | +0.7 | +1.3 | ||||||||
| Cole Anthony | C. Anthony | 26 | SAME | +1.1 | -1.0 | ||||||||
| Wendell Carter Jr. | W. Carter Jr. | 30 | +1 | -1.3 | +1.3 | ||||||||
| Markelle Fultz | M. Fultz | 27 | -2 | +0.1 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| Gary Harris | G. Harris | 23 | -2 | -0.8 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Bol Bol | B. Bol | 16 | -1 | -3.2 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Moritz Wagner | M. Wagner | 13 | -1 | -0.6 | +1.0 | ||||||||
| Jalen Suggs | J. Suggs | 12 | +1 | -1.1 | +2.3 | ||||||||
| Jonathan Isaac | J. Isaac | 10 | SAME | -1.1 | +0.9 | ||||||||
| Goga Bitadze | G. Bitadze | 0 | -2 | -0.6 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Caleb Houstan | C. Houstan | 10 | SAME | -2.3 | -1.8 | ||||||||
| Kevon Harris | K. Harris | 0 | SAME | -1.9 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Chuma Okeke | C. Okeke | 0 | SAME | -2.5 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Admiral Schofield | A. Schofield | 0 | SAME | -1.5 | -1.6 | ||||||||
| Michael Carter-Williams | M. Carter-Williams | 0 | SAME | -1.8 | +1.1 | ||||||||
| Jay Scrubb | J. Scrubb | 0 | SAME | -1.0 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -3.0 | -0.1 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 104-107 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 33 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1430 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1466). The weight given to Elo — 42% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1466). The weight given to Elo — 42% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1445 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1446 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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