The Dallas Mavericks have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

		Expected minutes per game				PROJECTED PLAYER RATING		Exp. min. per game	PROJ. PLAYER RATING
Player		TOTAL	vs. full strength		vs. full strength		Off. +/-	Def. +/-
Luka Doncic	L. Doncic		40	SAME			+8.1	+0.2
Kyrie Irving	K. Irving		37	SAME			+5.4	-0.2
Reggie Bullock	R. Bullock		28	SAME			-1.8	-1.0
Josh Green	J. Green		22	SAME			-1.2	+0.9
Jaden Hardy	J. Hardy		10	SAME			-1.0	-2.1
Tim Hardaway Jr.	T. Hardaway Jr.		24	SAME			+0.8	+0.8
Maxi Kleber	M. Kleber		22	SAME			-2.3	+0.6
Dwight Powell	D. Powell		17	SAME			-0.9	+1.0
Christian Wood	C. Wood		17	SAME			-0.1	-0.5
McKinley Wright IV	M. Wright IV		7	SAME			-1.2	-1.0
Markieff Morris	M. Morris		7	SAME			-2.8	-1.0
Justin Holiday	J. Holiday		9	SAME			-2.2	-1.1
Davis Bertans	D. Bertans		0	SAME			+0.3	-0.7
Frank Ntilikina	F. Ntilikina		0	SAME			-2.1	+0.5
JaVale McGee	J. McGee		0	SAME			-2.6	+0.9
Theo Pinson	T. Pinson		0	SAME			-1.1	-1.2
A.J. Lawson	A. Lawson		0	SAME			-0.5	-0.7
Rotation ratings	First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.					Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.			+6.4	-0.2
Points per game	We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.5 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.					Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.5 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.			113-107
Rotation wins	We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.					Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.			55
Rotation rating	Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.					Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.			1647
Team rating	We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1442). The weight given to Elo — 33% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.					Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1442). The weight given to Elo — 33% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.			1579
Playoff rating	Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.					Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.			1586

Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

				PROJECTED PLAYER RATING
Player		Expected minutes per game		Off. +/-	Def. +/-
Luka Doncic	L. Doncic		40		+8.1	+0.2
Kyrie Irving	K. Irving		37		+5.4	-0.2
Reggie Bullock	R. Bullock		28		-1.8	-1.0
Josh Green	J. Green		22		-1.2	+0.9
Jaden Hardy	J. Hardy		10		-1.0	-2.1
Tim Hardaway Jr.	T. Hardaway Jr.		24		+0.8	+0.8
Maxi Kleber	M. Kleber		22		-2.3	+0.6
Dwight Powell	D. Powell		17		-0.9	+1.0
Christian Wood	C. Wood		17		-0.1	-0.5
McKinley Wright IV	M. Wright IV		7		-1.2	-1.0
Markieff Morris	M. Morris		7		-2.8	-1.0
Justin Holiday	J. Holiday		9		-2.2	-1.1
Davis Bertans	D. Bertans		0		+0.3	-0.7
Frank Ntilikina	F. Ntilikina		0		-2.1	+0.5
JaVale McGee	J. McGee		0		-2.6	+0.9
Theo Pinson	T. Pinson		0		-1.1	-1.2
A.J. Lawson	A. Lawson		0		-0.5	-0.7
Rotation ratings	First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.			Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.			+6.4	-0.2
Points per game	We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.5 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.			Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.5 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.			113-107
Rotation wins	We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.			Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.			55
Rotation rating	Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.			Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.			1647
Team rating	We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1442). The weight given to Elo — 33% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.			Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1442). The weight given to Elo — 33% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.			1579
Playoff rating	Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.			Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.			1586

Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

At full strength vs. with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation

Current rotation

Current

2022-23 NBA Predictions

Team ratings, game schedule, playoff odds and in-game win probabilities, updating live.

The Dallas Mavericks have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

Team rating

Comments