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UPDATED Dec. 8, 2022, at 7:28 AM

2022-23 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:Our preseason player projectionsRAPTOR player ratingsBuild your own team

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The Dallas Mavericks have an 87% chance of making the playoffs and a 4% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePROJECTED PLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePROJ. PLAYER RATING
PlayerTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Luka DoncicL. Doncic34-3
+8.7
-0.1
Dorian Finney-SmithD. Finney-Smith29-3
-0.2
+0.5
Christian WoodC. Wood26-1
-0.6
-0.1
Spencer DinwiddieS. Dinwiddie27-3
+1.2
-1.2
Reggie BullockR. Bullock21-5
-2.1
-0.3
Tim Hardaway Jr.T. Hardaway Jr.24+5
+1.3
+0.5
JaVale McGeeJ. McGee7-5
-1.8
+1.7
Dwight PowellD. Powell16+1
-1.1
+1.5
Maxi KleberM. Kleber21+5
-2.2
+1.2
Josh GreenJ. Green19+3
-0.9
+2.1
Davis BertansD. Bertans5SAME
+0.5
-0.6
Frank NtilikinaF. Ntilikina5SAME
-0.8
+1.1
Theo PinsonT. Pinson3+3
-1.3
-0.5
McKinley Wright IVM. Wright IV0SAME
-0.1
-1.0
Jaden HardyJ. Hardy3+3
-2.2
-1.2
Tyler DorseyT. Dorsey0SAME
-1.4
-0.7
Kemba WalkerK. Walker0SAME
+1.7
-0.2
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+3.1
+1.3
Points per gameWe combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.
Points per game
We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.
113-108
Rotation winsWe use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Rotation wins
We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
53
Rotation ratingThen we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
Rotation rating
Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1619
Team ratingWe blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1587). The weight given to Elo — 50% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.
Team rating
We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1587). The weight given to Elo — 50% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.
1603
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
PROJECTED PLAYER RATINGPROJ. PLAYER RATING
PlayerExpected minutes per gameExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Luka DoncicL. Doncic37
+8.7
-0.1
Dorian Finney-SmithD. Finney-Smith32
-0.2
+0.5
Christian WoodC. Wood27
-0.6
-0.1
Spencer DinwiddieS. Dinwiddie30
+1.2
-1.2
Reggie BullockR. Bullock26
-2.1
-0.3
Tim Hardaway Jr.T. Hardaway Jr.19
+1.3
+0.5
JaVale McGeeJ. McGee12
-1.8
+1.7
Dwight PowellD. Powell15
-1.1
+1.5
Maxi KleberM. Kleber16
-2.2
+1.2
Josh GreenJ. Green16
-0.9
+2.1
Davis BertansD. Bertans5
+0.5
-0.6
Frank NtilikinaF. Ntilikina5
-0.8
+1.1
Theo PinsonT. Pinson0
-1.3
-0.5
McKinley Wright IVM. Wright IV0
-0.1
-1.0
Jaden HardyJ. Hardy0
-2.2
-1.2
Tyler DorseyT. Dorsey0
-1.4
-0.7
Kemba WalkerK. Walker0
+1.7
-0.2
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+3.6
+1.2
Points per gameWe combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.1 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.
Points per game
We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.1 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.
113-108
Rotation winsWe use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Rotation wins
We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
54
Rotation ratingThen we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
Rotation rating
Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1628
Team ratingWe blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1587). The weight given to Elo — 45% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.
Team rating
We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1587). The weight given to Elo — 45% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.
1610
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePROJECTED PLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePROJ. PLAYER RATING
PlayerTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Luka DoncicL. Doncic40+3
+8.9
+0.1
Dorian Finney-SmithD. Finney-Smith33+1
+0.3
+0.6
Christian WoodC. Wood26-1
-0.6
-0.1
Spencer DinwiddieS. Dinwiddie30SAME
+1.2
-1.2
Reggie BullockR. Bullock25-1
-2.1
-0.3
Tim Hardaway Jr.T. Hardaway Jr.19SAME
+1.1
+0.4
JaVale McGeeJ. McGee8-4
-1.8
+1.6
Dwight PowellD. Powell16+1
-1.1
+1.6
Maxi KleberM. Kleber17+1
-2.2
+1.0
Josh GreenJ. Green15-1
-0.9
+2.1
Davis BertansD. Bertans6+1
+0.6
-0.6
Frank NtilikinaF. Ntilikina5SAME
-0.9
+1.0
Theo PinsonT. Pinson0SAME
-1.2
-0.5
McKinley Wright IVM. Wright IV0SAME
-0.1
-1.0
Jaden HardyJ. Hardy0SAME
-2.1
-1.2
Tyler DorseyT. Dorsey0SAME
-1.3
-0.7
Kemba WalkerK. Walker0SAME
+1.5
-0.2
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+5.1
+1.4
Points per gameWe combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 97.5 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.
Points per game
We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 97.5 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.
111-104
Rotation winsWe use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Rotation wins
We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
56
Rotation ratingThen we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
Rotation rating
Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1656
Team ratingWe blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1587). The weight given to Elo — 46% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.
Team rating
We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1587). The weight given to Elo — 46% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.
1625
Playoff ratingFinally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.
Playoff rating
Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.
1630
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

At full strength vs. with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent