2022-23 NBA Predictions
Team ratings, game schedule, playoff odds and in-game win probabilities, updating live.
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The Brooklyn Nets have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength | vs. full strength | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Mikal Bridges | M. Bridges | 38 | SAME | +1.3 | +0.7 | ||||||||
| Spencer Dinwiddie | S. Dinwiddie | 34 | SAME | +1.4 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Nic Claxton | N. Claxton | 29 | SAME | -0.8 | +2.1 | ||||||||
| Cameron Johnson | C. Johnson | 28 | SAME | +0.7 | +1.7 | ||||||||
| Cam Thomas | C. Thomas | 15 | SAME | -0.8 | -1.7 | ||||||||
| Dorian Finney-Smith | D. Finney-Smith | 26 | SAME | -0.4 | +1.2 | ||||||||
| Royce O'Neale | R. O'Neale | 25 | SAME | -0.5 | +1.1 | ||||||||
| Seth Curry | S. Curry | 19 | SAME | +0.6 | -1.6 | ||||||||
| Day'Ron Sharpe* | D. Sharpe* | 19 | SAME | -1.2 | -2.0 | ||||||||
| Joe Harris | J. Harris | 2 | SAME | -0.9 | -1.6 | ||||||||
| Edmond Sumner | E. Sumner | 1 | SAME | -1.1 | -1.1 | ||||||||
| Yuta Watanabe | Y. Watanabe | 2 | SAME | -1.3 | -0.2 | ||||||||
| Patty Mills | P. Mills | 2 | SAME | -0.4 | -2.1 | ||||||||
| Ben Simmons | B. Simmons | 0 | SAME | -0.7 | +1.2 | ||||||||
| David Duke Jr. | D. Duke Jr. | 0 | SAME | -0.9 | -0.1 | ||||||||
| Dru Smith | D. Smith | 0 | SAME | -0.6 | +0.3 | ||||||||
| RaiQuan Gray | R. Gray | 0 | SAME | -2.0 | +0.6 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +0.9 | +1.3 | |||||||||
| Adj. rotation ratings | A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | +0.7 | +1.1 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 96.6 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 96.6 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 105-104 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 45 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1546 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1491). The weight given to Elo — 40% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1491). The weight given to Elo — 40% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1524 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1530 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||
| Mikal Bridges | M. Bridges | 38 | +1.3 | +0.7 | |||||
| Spencer Dinwiddie | S. Dinwiddie | 34 | +1.4 | -0.9 | |||||
| Nic Claxton | N. Claxton | 29 | -0.8 | +2.1 | |||||
| Cameron Johnson | C. Johnson | 28 | +0.7 | +1.7 | |||||
| Cam Thomas | C. Thomas | 15 | -0.8 | -1.7 | |||||
| Dorian Finney-Smith | D. Finney-Smith | 26 | -0.4 | +1.2 | |||||
| Royce O'Neale | R. O'Neale | 25 | -0.5 | +1.1 | |||||
| Seth Curry | S. Curry | 19 | +0.6 | -1.6 | |||||
| Day'Ron Sharpe* | D. Sharpe* | 19 | -1.2 | -2.0 | |||||
| Joe Harris | J. Harris | 2 | -0.9 | -1.6 | |||||
| Edmond Sumner | E. Sumner | 1 | -1.1 | -1.1 | |||||
| Yuta Watanabe | Y. Watanabe | 2 | -1.3 | -0.2 | |||||
| Patty Mills | P. Mills | 2 | -0.4 | -2.1 | |||||
| Ben Simmons | B. Simmons | 0 | -0.7 | +1.2 | |||||
| David Duke Jr. | D. Duke Jr. | 0 | -0.9 | -0.1 | |||||
| Dru Smith | D. Smith | 0 | -0.6 | +0.3 | |||||
| RaiQuan Gray | R. Gray | 0 | -2.0 | +0.6 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +0.9 | +1.3 | |||||
| Adj. rotation ratings | A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | +0.7 | +1.1 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 96.6 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 96.6 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 105-104 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 45 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1546 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1491). The weight given to Elo — 40% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1491). The weight given to Elo — 40% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1524 | ||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1530 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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