2022-23 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
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The Denver Nuggets have a 100% chance of making the playoffs and a 17% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Nikola Jokic | N. Jokic | 18 | -16 | +9.0 | +4.0 | ||||||||
| Jamal Murray | J. Murray | 35 | +2 | +2.3 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Michael Porter Jr. | M. Porter Jr. | 30 | +1 | +1.3 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Aaron Gordon | A. Gordon | 30 | SAME | +1.2 | +0.2 | ||||||||
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | K. Caldwell-Pope | 32 | +1 | +0.1 | +0.7 | ||||||||
| Bruce Brown | B. Brown | 26 | +6 | -0.8 | +0.4 | ||||||||
| Jeff Green | J. Green | 19 | SAME | -3.1 | -1.2 | ||||||||
| Reggie Jackson | R. Jackson | 11 | -8 | -1.3 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| Vlatko Cancar | V. Cancar | 4 | -3 | -1.7 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Thomas Bryant | T. Bryant | 10 | +1 | -1.5 | -1.5 | ||||||||
| Christian Braun | C. Braun | 11 | +6 | -2.1 | -0.1 | ||||||||
| Ish Smith | I. Smith | 4 | SAME | -2.3 | -1.5 | ||||||||
| Zeke Nnaji | Z. Nnaji | 8 | +8 | -2.1 | -0.7 | ||||||||
| DeAndre Jordan | D. Jordan | 1 | +1 | -4.2 | -1.9 | ||||||||
| Collin Gillespie | C. Gillespie | 0 | SAME | -0.2 | -1.0 | ||||||||
| Peyton Watson | P. Watson | 1 | +1 | -3.1 | +0.6 | ||||||||
| Jack White | J. White | 0 | SAME | -2.6 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +2.5 | +0.4 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.1 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.1 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 112-109 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 49 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1578 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1613). The weight given to Elo — 45% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1613). The weight given to Elo — 45% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1594 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Exp. min. per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | |||||
| Nikola Jokic | N. Jokic | 34 | +9.0 | +4.0 | |||||
| Jamal Murray | J. Murray | 33 | +2.3 | -0.9 | |||||
| Michael Porter Jr. | M. Porter Jr. | 29 | +1.3 | +0.1 | |||||
| Aaron Gordon | A. Gordon | 30 | +1.2 | +0.2 | |||||
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | K. Caldwell-Pope | 31 | +0.1 | +0.7 | |||||
| Bruce Brown | B. Brown | 20 | -0.8 | +0.4 | |||||
| Jeff Green | J. Green | 19 | -3.1 | -1.2 | |||||
| Reggie Jackson | R. Jackson | 19 | -1.3 | -0.3 | |||||
| Vlatko Cancar | V. Cancar | 7 | -1.7 | -0.9 | |||||
| Thomas Bryant | T. Bryant | 9 | -1.5 | -1.5 | |||||
| Christian Braun | C. Braun | 5 | -2.1 | -0.1 | |||||
| Ish Smith | I. Smith | 4 | -2.3 | -1.5 | |||||
| Zeke Nnaji | Z. Nnaji | 0 | -2.1 | -0.7 | |||||
| DeAndre Jordan | D. Jordan | 0 | -4.2 | -1.9 | |||||
| Collin Gillespie | C. Gillespie | 0 | -0.2 | -1.0 | |||||
| Peyton Watson | P. Watson | 0 | -3.1 | +0.6 | |||||
| Jack White | J. White | 0 | -2.6 | -0.4 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +5.2 | +1.5 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.7 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.7 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 116-109 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 58 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1675 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1613). The weight given to Elo — 42% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1613). The weight given to Elo — 42% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1649 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Nikola Jokic | N. Jokic | 38 | +4 | +9.0 | +4.0 | ||||||||
| Jamal Murray | J. Murray | 32 | -1 | +2.7 | -1.0 | ||||||||
| Michael Porter Jr. | M. Porter Jr. | 29 | SAME | +1.3 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Aaron Gordon | A. Gordon | 30 | SAME | +1.2 | +0.2 | ||||||||
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | K. Caldwell-Pope | 30 | -1 | +0.1 | +0.7 | ||||||||
| Bruce Brown | B. Brown | 26 | +6 | -0.9 | +0.4 | ||||||||
| Jeff Green | J. Green | 16 | -3 | -2.9 | -1.2 | ||||||||
| Reggie Jackson | R. Jackson | 23 | +4 | -1.1 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Vlatko Cancar | V. Cancar | 5 | -2 | -1.6 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Thomas Bryant | T. Bryant | 8 | -1 | -1.4 | -1.5 | ||||||||
| Christian Braun | C. Braun | 2 | -3 | -2.0 | -0.1 | ||||||||
| Ish Smith | I. Smith | 1 | -3 | -2.2 | -1.5 | ||||||||
| Zeke Nnaji | Z. Nnaji | 0 | SAME | -2.1 | -0.7 | ||||||||
| DeAndre Jordan | D. Jordan | 0 | SAME | -4.3 | -1.9 | ||||||||
| Collin Gillespie | C. Gillespie | 0 | SAME | -0.1 | -1.0 | ||||||||
| Peyton Watson | P. Watson | 0 | SAME | -3.1 | +0.6 | ||||||||
| Jack White | J. White | 0 | SAME | -2.6 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +7.2 | +2.1 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 114-104 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 62 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1722 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1613). The weight given to Elo — 40% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1613). The weight given to Elo — 40% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1679 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1687 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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