The Indiana Pacers have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

		Expected minutes per game				PROJECTED PLAYER RATING		Exp. min. per game	PROJ. PLAYER RATING
Player		TOTAL	vs. full strength		vs. full strength		Off. +/-	Def. +/-
Tyrese Haliburton	T. Haliburton		35	SAME			+5.2	-0.9
Myles Turner	M. Turner		29	SAME			-0.6	+1.0
Buddy Hield	B. Hield		30	SAME			+1.7	-0.6
Andrew Nembhard	A. Nembhard		23	SAME			-1.3	-0.7
Bennedict Mathurin	B. Mathurin		27	SAME			-0.9	-1.4
T.J. McConnell	T. McConnell		16	SAME			+0.3	+1.1
Chris Duarte	C. Duarte		13	SAME			-0.6	+0.1
Jalen Smith	J. Smith		17	SAME			-1.7	-1.0
Jordan Nwora	J. Nwora		15	SAME			-1.6	-2.5
Daniel Theis	D. Theis		10	SAME			-2.2	+0.9
Aaron Nesmith	A. Nesmith		8	SAME			-0.7	-0.8
Isaiah Jackson	I. Jackson		9	SAME			-2.1	-0.3
Oshae Brissett	O. Brissett		8	SAME			-1.1	-1.2
George Hill	G. Hill		0	SAME			-1.2	+0.9
James Johnson	J. Johnson		0	SAME			-2.7	-0.8
Kendall Brown	K. Brown		0	SAME			-2.5	-1.1
Gabe York	G. York		0	SAME			-2.5	-0.4
Rotation ratings	First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.					Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.			+0.9	-2.2
Points per game	We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.					Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.			109-110
Rotation wins	We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.					Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.			38
Rotation rating	Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.					Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.			1474
Team rating	We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1400). The weight given to Elo — 18% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.					Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1400). The weight given to Elo — 18% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.			1461
Playoff rating	Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.					Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.			1462

Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

				PROJECTED PLAYER RATING
Player		Expected minutes per game		Off. +/-	Def. +/-
Tyrese Haliburton	T. Haliburton		35		+5.2	-0.9
Myles Turner	M. Turner		29		-0.6	+1.0
Buddy Hield	B. Hield		30		+1.7	-0.6
Andrew Nembhard	A. Nembhard		23		-1.3	-0.7
Bennedict Mathurin	B. Mathurin		27		-0.9	-1.4
T.J. McConnell	T. McConnell		16		+0.3	+1.1
Chris Duarte	C. Duarte		13		-0.6	+0.1
Jalen Smith	J. Smith		17		-1.7	-1.0
Jordan Nwora	J. Nwora		15		-1.6	-2.5
Daniel Theis	D. Theis		10		-2.2	+0.9
Aaron Nesmith	A. Nesmith		8		-0.7	-0.8
Isaiah Jackson	I. Jackson		9		-2.1	-0.3
Oshae Brissett	O. Brissett		8		-1.1	-1.2
George Hill	G. Hill		0		-1.2	+0.9
James Johnson	J. Johnson		0		-2.7	-0.8
Kendall Brown	K. Brown		0		-2.5	-1.1
Gabe York	G. York		0		-2.5	-0.4
Rotation ratings	First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.			Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.			+0.9	-2.2
Points per game	We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.			Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.			109-110
Rotation wins	We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.			Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.			38
Rotation rating	Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.			Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.			1474
Team rating	We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1400). The weight given to Elo — 18% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.			Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1400). The weight given to Elo — 18% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.			1461
Playoff rating	Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.			Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.			1462

Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

At full strength vs. with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation

Current rotation

Current

2022-23 NBA Predictions

Team ratings, game schedule, playoff odds and in-game win probabilities, updating live.

The Indiana Pacers have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

Team rating

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